The Monday Report – 23 March 2026

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            [3] => ((CCV))
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            [5] => ((LYL))
            [6] => ((NWH))
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This story features MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MQG
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A presidential ultimatum has markets fearing the worst.

Investors better prepare for another dark day on the Australian stock exchange.

 Morning (note the absence of the ‘good’ prefix),

Following a brutal week for the Australia share market, today’s session is not looking much better as the situation in the Middle East has heated up further.

Markets are spooked because the US President and Isreal are sending mixed signals, but it’s Trump’s 48 hours ultimatum over the weekend that has really placed the cat among the pigeons (so to speak).

Trump, in a social media post from Florida over the weekend, warned the US would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the country did not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Iran has typically responded in a tit-for-that manner.

Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 Index were already pointing to a -156-point drop before Trump’s threat, after US stocks and bonds were heavily sold off on Friday.

National Australia Bank:

• Iran’s uses longer-range missiles, continues to strike Israel and Gulf targets
• There are no signs of de-escalation, indeed the opposite is true
• Trump sets 48-hour deadline for Iran to open Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatens to close it completely
• Core global yields higher across the board. 10y UST close at 4.38%
• Central banks hawkish repricing continues. Market now sees probability of a Fed hike this year
• Global equities fell sharply on Friday, led by US tech and small caps
• The US dollar regains ground on Friday but still ends the week softer. AUD starts the new week just above 70C
• Brent closes at US$112/bbl, up 9% but WTI little changed on the week. Gold falls again (-3%) and trades sub US$4500/oz
• Credit spreads widened as risk appetite deteriorates. European issuance stalls while US IG supply slows markedly
• Fitch Ratings downgrades NZ +AA credit rating outlook to negative
• Week Ahead: AU CPI, PMIs around the Globe, CB speakers

ANZ Bank:

Global markets overview

Equity and fixed income markets sold off on Friday night, as the conflict in the Middle East showed little sign of improving.

The S&P 500 closed down -1.5%, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down -2.0% and the FTSE 100 was off -1.4%.

The yield on the US 10y Treasury note rose 13bp to 4.38%, and most European yields saw double-digit lifts.

The active WTI future was up 2.8% to USD98.2/bbl, and Brent was up 3.3% to USD112.2/bbl.

Gold fell -4% to USD4,492.4/oz. Another volatile week lays ahead, given the escalation of Middle East related rhetoric over the weekend.

Data/event pulse

Threats escalate: On Sunday lunchtime Australia time, Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power plants unless they reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within 48 hours.

The Iranian military countered that it would strike “all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the Israeli regime in the region” should its own energy infrastructure be attacked.

The escalation in rhetoric appears likely to see a further risk-off move when markets open, as the prospect of long-term disruption to global energy supplies becomes harder to downplay.

Key themes and views

Bond yields lift: Fixed income markets have generally followed movements in oil prices over the past week, but Friday’s session saw the two decouple.

While benchmark oil futures were comparatively stable, fixed income markets sold off sharply following Thursday’s moves.

While the sell-off has been concentrated at the front end, long-end yields followed suit on Friday.

The yield on the UK 10y gilt rose to its highest level since 2008 and the yield on the 10y German bund hit its highest since 2011.

There was a clear shift last week in investor expectations regarding the impacts and duration of the conflict.

Behind the relative stability in oil futures markets in Friday’s session, signs of stress are emerging in physical and product markets.

The weekend’s developments will only exacerbate these concerns.

While the overall theme is one of caution from central banks, opinions vary. Fed Governor Waller said that while he would have voted for a cut at last week’s meeting, were it not for the conflict in the Middle East, upside inflation risks from the conflict mean it is appropriate to pause and wait and see how things evolve.

Bowman said she still expected three rate cuts this year, though it was too soon to determine the impacts of the conflict.

Commodities

Energy markets remain on edge amid an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Metals fell on concerns of higher inflation and weaker economic growth. 

Corporate news in Australia

-Court finds Macquarie Group ((MQG)) breached rules over failed Shield investment oversight.

-Infinity Pharmacy Group ((WES)) sale down to four bidders for $400–$500m portfolio

-Canva targets IPO next year 

-Richard White personally negotiated $5m settlement over WiseTech Global’s ((WTC)) employee allegations

On the calendar today:

-CASH CONVERTERS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((CCV)) ex-div 1c (100%)

-CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED ((CWP)) ex-div 14c (100%)

-LYCOPODIUM LIMITED ((LYL)) ex-div 22c (100%)

-NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) ex-div 8.50c (100%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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