The Overnight Report: Seven Days Up (US Stocks)

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((ALD))
            [1] => ((BEN))
            [2] => ((E25))
            [3] => ((BLG))
            [4] => ((CTD))
            [5] => ((CHC))
            [6] => ((DRO))
            [7] => ((AMU))
            [8] => ((GPT))
            [9] => ((MFG))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => ALD
            [1] => BEN
            [2] => E25
            [3] => BLG
            [4] => CTD
            [5] => CHC
            [6] => DRO
            [7] => AMU
            [8] => GPT
            [9] => MFG
        )

)

This story features AMPOL LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P500 rose for a seventh consecutive session to mark the longest winning streak since August 2024 — go figure!

After lifting some 0.25% yesterday, the ASX200 futures are slightly negative ahead of US/Iran peace talks and the US March CPI print.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 rose 21 points or 0.25% to 8,973 on Thursday.

Energy and banks rebounded while technology reversed the prior two days’ gains and slumped by -6.5%.

Overnight, US equities closed higher after Israel agreed to hold “direct negotiations” with Lebanon “as soon as possible”.

Selling in software stocks picked up yet again (as also witnessed locally in Thursday’s session).

Today’s Big Picture, J.L. Bernstein extract 

Israel Agrees to Lebanon Talks

Netanyahu agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon after the White House called him Wednesday night.

This matters because Iran has insisted any peace deal must include Lebanon, and Israel hit over 100 targets there on Wednesday alone.

The ceasefire lives another day. Saturday’s talks in Pakistan are the real test.

Strait of Hormuz Still Barely Open 

Four vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday. Iran is capping daily traffic at 15 ships and charging crypto tolls up to US$2m per vessel.

Before the war, over 100 ships passed through with no fees.

Goldman says Brent averages US$100-plus through 2026 if this doesn’t improve within a month.

Abu Dhabi’s state oil chief posted on LinkedIn the strait is “not open” and warned the true supply gap is about to hit Asia.

Private Credit Redemptions Hit US$20 Billion 

Wealthy investors tried to pull -US$20bn from private credit funds in Q1 across Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR.

The funds only honored about half.

Carlyle’s flagship fund saw redemption requests hit three times its 5% gate limit.

The worry is AI disruption to PE-backed software companies and aging leveraged buyouts that can’t find exits.

NAB Markets Today Research extract

Geopolitical developments continue to dominate sentiment, with the fragile US–Iran ceasefire announced earlier this week still holding, although tensions between Israel and Lebanon have persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, barring passage of Iranian linked vessels.

Israel intensified its bombing campaign and PM Netanyahu said he would continue to strike Hezbollah wherever required.

Trump called Netanyahu asking him to scale back the strikes, with the result being Netanyahu agreeing to direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible.

However, Netanyahu still denies there is a ceasefire in Lebanon and said “we won’t stop until Northern Israel is secure”.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy published a map on Thursday outlining specific designated lanes for vessels transiting the strait, requiring adherence to maritime safety protocols.

However, no oil or gas tankers had traversed the Hormuz strait immediately following the ceasefire with Bloomberg noting two fully laden Chinese oil tankers were waiting near the strait.

Reports suggest ships still require permission from Iran to cross the strait.

For now, the market is travelling with a cautiously positive tone, but eventually we are going to need evidence the Strait of Hormuz is opening alongside concrete developments for a more permanent ceasefire. 

The scheduled US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan this weekend are the next big event to watch.

US economic data releases delivered a mixed signal for growth and inflation. February PCE inflation surprised to the upside, with both headline and core PCE rising 0.4% m/m and core inflation lifting to 3.0% y/y, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on easing.

Personal income rose a modest 0.3%, while spending again outpaced income, driving savings lower and raising questions around sustainability. Importantly too, real consumer spending barely rose in February, up 0.1% m/m, ahead of the conflict, with a weaker trend from late last year and heading into 2026.

Meanwhile, Q4 GDP was revised sharply down to just 0.7% annualised, reflecting weaker consumption, reduced government spending due to the shutdown, and softer investment.

At the margin, weekly jobless claims rose to 219k, but continuing claims fell to their lowest since mid-2024, pointing to a still-resilient labour market.

In Europe, German industrial production disappointed, falling -1.9% m/m, underscoring the fragility of the manufacturing sector despite tentative improvement in PMI and factory order data.

Brent crude was rallying back towards US$100 per barrel before headlines about Israel agreeing to direct talks with Lebanon drove a sharp correction.

Relative to levels this time yesterday, WTI is up 5% to near US$$99/bbl and Brent is up 2.6% to around US$$97/bbl, though both remain materially lower on the week following the initial ceasefire announcement.

Gold extended its winning streak, rising around 1.1% to circa US$4,770/oz as investors maintained geopolitical hedges alongside softer USD conditions. In contrast, iron ore underperformed sharply, falling around -2.6% to circa US$103/t.

US Treasury yields were mixed during the US session, with modest declines at the front end and upward pressure on the long end. The 2-year yield eased slightly to around 3.78%, while the 10-year was little changed near 4.29%, and the 30-year yield rose, reflecting a soft long-bond auction and some curve steepening.

Core European yields sold off, led by a 4.4bp rise in German Bund yields to just under 3.0%, alongside similar moves higher in Gilts, driven by higher energy prices and Middle East risk premia. Ovenright Australian bond futures were also mixed, the 3y up 1 bps to 95.39 whilst the 10y was down -2bps to 95.04.

FX markets saw a modest USD pullback as easing ceasefire optimism and stronger risk appetite reduced safe-haven demand. The DXY index fell around -0.3% to 98.82.

Commodity currencies led gains, with AUD the standout performer, rising around 0.7% to just above 0.708, despite weaker iron ore prices.

GBP also outperformed, lifting around 0.4% to 1.344, while EUR climbed toward 1.17.

Credit markets remained well supported, with spreads tightening modestly across most indices. 

LGT Wealth Management, Special Report, extract, Scott Haslem, Matthew Tan

(Published post cease-fire announcement)

The easefire deal is a clear signal that both sides recognise and respect their constraints. While we are still awaiting the full details and terms of the recently announced ceasefire, we understand that:

-Both the US and Iran have agreed to suspend military operations for a two-week period;

-Iran has agreed to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week period with military coordination; and

-Trump has indicated an Iranian 10-point proposal was a “workable basis” for ongoing negotiations and that he expected an agreement to be “finalised and consummated” during the two-week ceasefire.

Rather than attempting to parse the ‘tea leaves’ of official pronouncements, we instead choose to interpret this announcement through two main viewpoints:

1. This ceasefire deal confirms for us that both sides recognise and respect the constraints that face them. On the US end, we have held a view for most of March that Trump will ultimately have to respect the constraints of the bond market (via higher US Treasury yields), oil prices, and a lack of boots on the ground to properly prosecute his objectives.

As we wrote on 11 March when we began leaning into equities, these constraints were compelling him towards de-escalation. On the Iranian front, we believed strongly that Iran could not keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely.

At some point, the economic damage from such a disruption would be so great that a United Nations (UN) coalition, potentially including Chinese vessels, would be assembled to force the Strait open.

Indeed, we saw these dynamics play out over the course of March, with the UK and France assembling a coalition of 40 nations to discuss a UN operation to reopen the Strait. As such, Iran was playing with borrowed time and was incentivised to conclude a deal before this UN constraint closed in on it.

2. Investors may look back on 8 April 2026 as we now view 9 April 2025. Investors will recall on 9 April 2025, US President Trump announced the first 90-day reprieve in his reciprocal tariff regime that sparked the Liberation Day market rout.

While conditions appeared alarming at the time, that date marked both the peak in US trade policy uncertainty and the bottom for global equity markets, which staged a stunning 37% rally for the remainder of 2025.

History doesn’t always repeat, but it sometimes rhymes, and while we note the near-term and medium-term outlook from today appear equally (or even more) concerning than April 2025, we believe that 8 April 2026 may also mark the peak in geopolitical uncertainty.

Another important takeaway for investors: these developments vindicate the value of developing a disciplined and objective framework for analysing and assessing political and geopolitical developments, rather than reacting emotionally to newspaper headlines or social media rumours.

Discipline and diversification remain an investor’s best friend. Abstracting from the near-term outlook, we think investors should also not lose track of the fundamental importance of discipline and diversification in their long-term investment strategies.

Corporate news in Australia

-Ampol ((ALD)) to sell -37 stations to address ACCC concerns on $1.1bn EG deal, still below 54-site threshold

-Australian M&A reaches $28.4bn in Q1 2026, driven by mega-deals; Goldman Sachs leads advisory

-Paraway Pastoral receives multiple bids from domestic and global investors

-ACCC approves 90% of mergers within 20 days under new framework

-Bendigo Bank ((BEN)) flags workforce restructuring following Infosys and Genpact deals

-Omers is preparing to bid $4bn for Victorial land titles registry

-Element 25 ((E25)) and BluGlass ((BLG)) preparing capital raises

-Australia accelerates renewable and hydrogen projects under pilot scheme

-Corporate Travel ((CTD)) misses deadline for KPMG review

-Charter Hall ((CHC)) wins $1.2bn property mandate

-Kia plans software-defined vehicles by 2027 and humanoid robots in US factories by 2029

-Keyview adds Berkshire Global Advisors; CEO exits after five months

-TPG drops Qscan pursuit, shifts focus to Everlight Radiology

-MSA National seeks private equity backing for growth

-OpenAI pauses UK Stargate AI project amid cost and regulatory issues

-DroneShield ((DRO)) pipeline falls -$100m to $2.2bn amid management changes

-Racing NSW receives $58m grant without deadline or oversight

On the calendar today:

-NZ March Mfg PMI

-JP March PPI

-CH March PPI, CPI

-US March CPI

-US U. Mich Sentiment (April)

-AMERICAN URANIUM LIMITED ((AMU)) AGM

-GPT GROUP ((GPT)) AGM

-MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) EGM

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms