Uranium Week: Sprott Joins Risk On Rally

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This story features NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Uranium markets and equities were scooped up in the global risk on rally out of cash into assets with Sprott raising cash and deploying it.

• U308 spot prices continues to move higher over April, with higher activity levels
• Analysts highlight structural changes to energy markets post oil/gas shocks, bullish for nuclear energy
• Paladin and Boss Energy offer mixed 3Q26 updates; its not all bad news

By Danielle Ecuyer

Record cash outflows boost U308 markets and activity

The risk-on rally last week created a stampede out of cash, with Bank of America highlighting cash outflows of -US$172.2bn, the largest outflow ever (but also tax-related), with US$11.3bn flowing into equities, US$7.9bn into bonds and US$1.2bn each into gold and crypto.

The outflows did not ignore the spot U308 market, which went along for the ride across multiple aspects. Notably, as detailed by industry consultants TradeTech, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) raised US$71.9m and re-entered the spot market, picking up 600klbs of U308.

Post the latest transactions, the trust held 80.9mlbs of U308 and US$125.6m in cash.

Fifteen transactions were conducted in the spot market, with the TradeTech spot price rising US$1.50/lb to US$87/lb, bringing the rise since March to 5.2%.

Most of the purchases were conducted for delivery at ConverDyn’s US conversion facility.

Activity in the term market continued on from the prior week, the consultants observed.

A US utility entered the long-term market, seeking between 2.7mlbs and 7.2mlbs U308 for delivery between 2027 and 2035, including a request that submissions be made no later than May 11.

The TradeTech Medium Term price indicator stands at US$88/lb and the Long-term U308 price indicator at US$93/lb.

Supply chain shocks drive renewed focus on energy security 

Canaccord Genuity turned its focus to the impact of oil shocks in energy markets, arguing the current Middle East war has “fundamentally altered” the global narrative around energy security, given how unprepared and fragile oil and gas supplies have become with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The broker believes with oil and gas currently representing circa 59% of the world’s primary energy, the corresponding policy response to the economically damaging supply chain problems will accelerate the electrification of economies, with a focus on energy security.

In the context of Australia, which is dependent on importing oil, there has already been both a political and consumer response to the problem, with the Queensland Premier pointing to an easing of exploration permits, while demand for new and used electric vehicles is rising sharply.

In the prior oil shock, Canaccord points to the rise in the uranium price above US$40/lb by 1976-77 from US$6-US$9/lb in 1973.

Three trends were observed, including the transition of power generators away from oil exposure, the US launching “Project Independence”, which advocated for nuclear power, while France, Japan and West Germany commenced large scale nuclear programs.

Similar trends have already been evidenced, the broker details, with Japan’s Opposition leader calling on all nuclear power plants to be restarted, with nine reactors applying for a restart.

France is moving ahead with PPE3, six new reactors with the scope to lift to fourteen. Spain is contemplating reactor life extensions; China’s 15th five year plan is aiming for 110GW of nuclear capacity by 2030 compared to 625GW in 2025.

South Korea and Taiwan are also in the expansionary mix, with the latter restarting two nuclear plants by 2028/29.

Canaccord continues to forecast a compound average growth rate in demand at 4% through to 2035, which equals nuclear capacity of 571MW and annual U308 demand of 289Mlb versus 187Mlb in 2025, including secondary demand.

The sell off in equities, prior to last week’s rally, was noted as being macro driven.

The broker was keen to stress uranium equities looked attractive, with all of NexGen ((NXG)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)), Deep Yellow ((DYL)), and Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) Speculative Buy rated and viewed as stocks with “torque and positive potential catalysts”.

Paladin and Boss offers trading updates

Ord Minnett also reviewed its commodity pricing forecasts, considering what was highlighted as an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, with uranium also expected to benefit from a desire for increased energy security.

The broker lifts U308 price forecasts by 3-9% over 2026-2028 to US$86/lb, US$97/lb and US$115/lb, respectively.

Deep Yellow  is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, with a higher target of $2.30 from $2.05, while Bannerman Energy retains a Hold rating with an upgraded target of $4.70 from $4.05.

Paladin has also been in focus post its 3Q26 trading update. Canaccord and other analysts noted production rose 5% q/q to 1,290klbs, beating consensus expectations, which the broker believes reflects record production from increased processing of fresh ore from G pits, lifting head grade and throughput.

Sales of 1,030klbs fell -28% q/q and missed expectations due to lumpy timing issues on shipments.

Realised price missed Canaccord’s estimate and consensus, down -5% q/q to US$68.30/lb, attributed to a higher percentage of fixed price deliveries. The trend is anticipated to improve and move towards the mid-US$70’s/lb for FY26.

Positively, cost of production, up 2% q/q at US$40.3/lb, proved better-than-expected.

While no FY27 guidance was offered, expected in July, the analyst notes the producer sources 80% of its reagents, diesel and the like from South African suppliers, which lowers the cost impact from Middle East issues.

However, no miners are “immune” and Canaccord increases its C1 cost forecast for FY27 by 5% to US$44/lb, with FY26 production estimates lifted to the upper end of upgraded guidance at 4.79Mlbs.

Canaccord rates Paladin a Buy with an unchanged $16 target price.

Morgan Stanley also pointed to the FY26 production guidance upgrade to 4.5Mlb-4.8Mlbs, a beat of 13.1% on its own estimate and 9.9% above consensus. An Overweight rating and $13.70 target remain unchanged.

In contrast, Macquarie is more circumspect, pointing to an implied U308 price of US$105.25/lb at current stock price levels, with the stock outperforming its peers since March 17.

This analyst believes investors should assess forward risks, with FY27 guidance a key catalyst and downside risk looming for consensus forecasts.

Macquarie downgrades the stock to Neutral from Outperform, with a $13.55 target from $13.50.

Boss Energy also made news this week, pre-reporting its March quarter production of 203klbs, which missed analysts’ expectations.

Wet weather resulted in management downgrading FY26 production guidance to 1.4Mlb-1.45Mlbs from 1.6Mlbs at Honeymoon, with heavy rain degrading road conditions and limiting reagent deliveries, as noted by Macquarie.

The Macquarie analyst found the update disappointing and continues to remain cautious on the long term outlook ahead of the new feasibility study. Target price lifts to $1.35 by 3.8% due to recent resource upgrades at Gould’s Dam and Jason’s. No change to Underperform rating.

For Ord Minnett, the latest downgrade is viewed as “noise” and this broker believes until the study data are released, there is no certainty around mine life, production rates and costs for Honeymoon.

The decline in the share price was enough to prompt an upgrade to Hold from Sell, with an unchanged target of $1.50.

UBS is equally cautious, lowering its EPS forecast by -15% for FY26, although FY27 is unchanged, with the target slipping to $1.55 from $1.60 along a retained Neutral rating.

Shaw and Partners, Bell Potter and Canaccord Genuity retain Buy ratings, with respective target prices of $2.96, $1.80 and $2.45.

Latest short interest, data by ASIC:

As of April 14, Boss Energy was the ninth most shorted stock on the ASX at 11.15%, down -0.97% on the week.

Lotus Resources ((LOT)) sits in tenth position at 10.64%, up 0.26% and up 2.94% from a month earlier.

Paladin is in eighteenth position at 8.96%, up 0.24% on the prior week.

Uranium companies listed on the ASX:

ASX CODE	DATE	LAST PRICE	WEEKLY % MOVE	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	P/E	CONSENSUS TARGET	UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
1AE	17/04/2026	0.0800	11.59%	$0.16	$0.05
AEE	17/04/2026	0.1500	11.54%	$0.28	$0.10
AGE	17/04/2026	0.0400	14.63%	$0.06	$0.02		$0.070	75.0%
AKN	17/04/2026	0.0300	26.32%	$0.03	$0.01
ASN	17/04/2026	0.0600	29.79%	$0.13	$0.04
BKY	17/04/2026	0.4300	6.17%	$0.70	$0.39
BMN	17/04/2026	4.4900	20.38%	$5.25	$1.76		$4.800	6.9%
BOE	17/04/2026	1.6700	6.88%	$4.75	$1.07	23.5	$1.617	– 3.2%
BSN	17/04/2026	0.0300	3.33%	$0.08	$0.01
C29	17/04/2026	0.0300	0.00%	$0.05	$0.01
CXO	17/04/2026	0.3800	31.03%	$0.39	$0.07		$0.300	-21.1%
CXU	17/04/2026	0.0500	0.00%	$0.07	$0.01
DEV	17/04/2026	0.2200	10.00%	$0.28	$0.07
DYL	17/04/2026	1.9800	14.69%	$2.97	$0.83	-70.8	$2.215	11.9%
EL8	17/04/2026	0.3200	20.75%	$0.50	$0.20
HAR	17/04/2026	0.1400	34.26%	$0.25	$0.05
I88	17/04/2026	0.1600	30.77%	$0.76	$0.08
KOB	17/04/2026	0.0400	7.50%	$0.09	$0.03
LAM	17/04/2026	0.8600	11.69%	$0.93	$0.56
LOT	17/04/2026	1.6000	13.98%	$3.20	$1.15		$3.450	115.6%
MEU	17/04/2026	0.1200	0.00%	$0.19	$0.04
NXG	17/04/2026	17.3900	10.57%	$20.47	$7.03	-14575.0	$20.150	15.9%
ORP	17/04/2026	0.0600	5.36%	$0.07	$0.02
PDN	17/04/2026	13.8900	17.07%	$15.10	$3.98	197.3	$12.950	– 6.8%
PEN	17/04/2026	0.6000	9.09%	$1.08	$0.28
SLX	17/04/2026	6.1000	7.78%	$10.85	$2.28
TOE	17/04/2026	0.5700	14.42%	$0.63	$0.16
WCN	17/04/2026	0.0100	– 6.67%	$0.04	$0.01

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