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Short interest in Australian U308 stocks surged post disappointing updates, while Cameco and Kazatomprom delivered mixed quarterly results.
- Short sellers target Lotus and Boss Energy as disappointing production updates pressure uranium equities
- Cameco and Kazatomprom quarterly results highlight widening operational divergence across global uranium producers
- TradeTech reports steady U308 spot prices while US delivery premiums and utility contracting activity intensify
- Can NexGen rerate once it moves to full production?
By Danielle Ecuyer
Short interests took no time in upping the ante against Lotus Resources ((LOT)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)) after both released disappointing market updates, as outlined in last week’s FNArena Uranium weekly https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/05/uranium-week-prices-rise-producers-struggle/
According to the latest ASIC data, short interests as of May 5 rose in both stocks, taking Lotus from the eighth most shorted to the second most shorted stock on the ASX, a rise of 3.93% to 15.57% from 11.64% a week earlier.
Boss followed a similar trend, moving to the fifth most shorted position at 14.14% from 11.63% a week earlier in ninth position.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)), which not delivered any updates, saw a slight rise in short positions to 9.13% from 8.89%.
As has been evident across other listed Australian stocks, the market is in no mood for disappointments.
Downgrades are attracting not only downside reactions in prices, but also heightened interest in short positions.
Large US utility supports term markets
The U308 spot market, as tracked by industry consultants TradeTech, remained unchanged last week at US$86.25/lb, with ten transactions noted in the spot market, of which four took place on Friday.
As observed over the last month, the price variation between delivery locations continued. Buyers have continued to show a preference for delivery of U308 materials at ConverDyn’s US facility, often paying a slight premium above material for delivery at Cameco’s Port Hope facility in Canada and material offered for sale at Orano’s Comurhex French facility.
TradeTech indicates two reasons for the bifurcation in prices. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have resulted in buyers being prepared to pay a higher price for ConverDyn material than for the two other locations.
Other parties are seeking to guarantee sufficient supply of US-located material due to a large US utility looking for offers in the near, mid and long-term delivery period.
Fee structures and limitations on storage facilities are also cited as reasons for the differential. While storage limitations are being addressed at non-US facilities, TradeTech expects the return to price parity across locations will take a while to flow through.
In the long-term U308 market, offers are focused on a large US utility seeking between 100klb and 500klbs of U308 in 2027 and additional amounts in 2028 to 2030 and between 2031 and 2035.
The Request for Proposals outlines the utility’s scope to acquire up to 7.2mlbs of U308 at the maximum over the three periods.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator stands at US$90/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$93/lb.
Uranium giants deliver mixed updates
Global U308 production giants Cameco and Kazatomprom delivered first quarter updates.
Cameco’s 1Q2026 net earnings more than doubled to CA$203m from CA$70m in the prior year.
Production guidance for 2026 was retained at 19.5mlbs to 21.5mlbs of U308, while unit cost of sales declined by -3%, with an average realised price of US$66.21/lb, a rise of 6% from 1Q2025.
Cameco’s contract book is attributed by TradeTech as the difference between the realised price versus the 34% lift in the U308 spot price over the same period.
Shaw and Partners noted this week North American markers are attracting investors for exposure to the ‘Nuclear Renaissance’ theme. Cameco’s stock price recently hit an all-time high above CA$180 per share but has recently pulled back to CA$156.
The broker notes the stock is trading around 34x EV/EBITDA and the premium is viewed as deserved.
Kazatomprom announced 1Q2026 production of 16mlbs, up from 14.7mlbs a year earlier.
At the first quarter production rate, Kazatomprom is some -5% below 2026 production guidance of 71.5mlbs-75.4mlbs. To meet guidance, production will need to grow over the balance of 2026.
While the guidance sits below its Subsoil Use Agreement of 77mlbs, which was negotiated down from 85mlbs, or -10%, TradeTech ponders the question of whether the Kazakh government might terminate the subsoil agreement if Kazatomprom fails to meet its production targets.
The latest quarter represents the lowest production result for Kazatomprom over the last five years.
Sales fell -40% over the quarter, largely due to shipment variations, and the average realised price was US$61.33/lb, up 12% from 1Q2025.
Management offered no update around acid availablity despite the global interest in availability post the closure of the Straight of Hormuz.
Shaw and Partners continues to see a U308 super cycle
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) released 1Q26 financial results showing a loss of -CA$156m, primarily driven by a -CA$129m mark-to-market loss on convertible debentures resulting from share price appreciation.
Significant progress was made during the quarter with the receipt of the Licence to Construct from the CNSC and highly encouraging exploration results at Patterson Corridor East, the report details.
Construction of the Rook I project will commence in mid-2026, with first production expected early next decade from a resource whose exceptional quality places it among the most profitable potential mines globally, Shaw and Partners highlights.
The underlying thesis remains that uranium is in the early stages of a “super-cycle”, positioning NexGen Energy as a preferred exposure to rising prices. The Rook 1 project is viewed as “exceptional” and as such should command a premium rating.
Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating and $22.90 price target for NexGen Energy following its 1Q26 financial report and quarterly update.
If NexGen were to trade at 10x EBITDA once in production the analyst highlights the share price could exceed $50.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 08/05/2026 | 0.0700 |  7.46% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 08/05/2026 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.11 | |||
| AGE | 08/05/2026 | 0.0400 | 7.32% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 08/05/2026 | 0.0200 | 4.17% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 08/05/2026 | 0.0500 | 6.25% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 08/05/2026 | 0.4300 |  – 5.56% | $0.70 | $0.39 | |||
| BMN | 08/05/2026 | 3.8900 | – 1.72% | $5.25 | $2.23 | $4.800 | 23.4% | |
| BOE | 08/05/2026 | 1.3700 | – 1.77% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 26.1 | $1.575 | 15.0% |
| BSN | 08/05/2026 | 0.0400 | -12.50% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 08/05/2026 | 0.0300 | 13.79% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 08/05/2026 | 0.3500 | 6.35% | $0.39 | $0.07 | $0.300 | -14.3% | |
| CXU | 08/05/2026 | 0.0600 | – 1.64% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 08/05/2026 | 0.2000 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 08/05/2026 | 1.6600 | – 5.72% | $2.97 | $1.15 | -61.8 | $2.215 | 33.4% |
| EL8 | 08/05/2026 | 0.2600 | 0.00% | $0.50 | $0.24 | |||
| HAR | 08/05/2026 | 0.1400 | 7.41% | $0.25 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 08/05/2026 | 0.1600 | – 8.82% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 08/05/2026 | 0.0400 | 2.70% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 08/05/2026 | 0.7800 | 3.33% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 08/05/2026 | 0.8000 | – 6.59% | $3.20 | $0.77 | $2.200 | 175.0% | |
| MEU | 08/05/2026 | 0.1200 | 9.52% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 08/05/2026 | 16.6300 | – 0.93% | $20.47 | $8.24 | -14016.8 | $20.150 | 21.2% |
| ORP | 08/05/2026 | 0.0700 | – 2.82% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 08/05/2026 | 12.0400 | 1.22% | $15.10 | $5.41 | -1094.7 | $13.258 | 10.1% |
| PEN | 08/05/2026 | 0.4100 | 5.00% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 08/05/2026 | 5.9200 | 3.00% | $10.85 | $2.95 | |||
| TOE | 08/05/2026 | 0.5600 | 1.82% | $0.63 | $0.16 | |||
| WCN | 08/05/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED