The Overnight Report: Chips Stocks Lead

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((PLS))
            [1] => ((MQG))
            [2] => ((QUB))
            [3] => ((SOL))
            [4] => ((GMG))
            [5] => ((CGF))
            [6] => ((ALX))
            [7] => ((DDR))
            [8] => ((TCL))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => PLS
            [1] => MQG
            [2] => QUB
            [3] => SOL
            [4] => GMG
            [5] => CGF
            [6] => ALX
            [7] => DDR
            [8] => TCL
        )

)

This story features MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MQG
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher, led by chip and memory stocks ahead of Friday's close for US markets.

After falling on Thursday, ASX200 futures are signaling risk-off will dominate the local market on the final day of the week.

Good Morning,

On Thursday, the Australian market retreated by -0.6%, or 55 points, to 8,911. Technology fell by -1.4%, while Consumer Staples outperformed.

Looking at US markets overnight, gains were boosted by Intel, up 10.64%, lifting the S&P500 after President Trump announced the chip manufacturer had secured a deal with Apple.

Shares in hard disk drive maker Western Digital rose 4.2%, while flash memory product supplier SanDisk gained 10%.

US markets are closed on Friday.

Today’s Big Picture, J.L.Bernstein

The Fed Scare Didn’t Have Legs

Wednesday’s drop got bought back in a session. Chips led, small caps ran ahead of the big indexes, and the VIX fell under 17, so the Fed fear drained out almost overnight.

One catch worth flagging: today was the largest options expiration on record, so some of this was dealers rebalancing their books, not fresh money.

The bid was still real though, and traders clearly wanted to be long into the long weekend.

Chips Closed At Records

Intel closed at a record high, and the move spread across the group.

Micron, Applied Materials, and Marvell all finished at records too, so this was real breadth, not one headline stock.

The AI chip trade has led the market all year, and after one ugly Fed day, it’s right back in front.

Cheap Gas Is Here, Energy Stocks Paid For It

Oil kept falling as the Iran deal settled in, and the national gas average finally dropped below US$4 for the first time since March.

Vice President Vance said 12.5 million barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a day, so crude is physically flowing again.

Great news at the pump, but energy was the day’s worst sector, because the oil names always pay for cheaper crude.

Shipping returns to the Strait supporting markets, CBA Economics, Daily Alert

The interim peace deal between US and Iran took effect overnight, which saw shipping return to the Strait of Hormuz and the US declaring an end to its blockade.

This supported share markets globally, though European stocks were softer on increased bets on US Federal Reserve hikes later this year. 

Australia’s population rose by 0.3% in the December quarter of 2025 to 27.8 million people. The annual growth rate held steady at 1.5%.

Net overseas migration continues to normalise, adding 56.6k people to Australia’s population in the final quarter of 2025 and declining -2.5%/qtr to 301k in rolling annual terms.

The natural increase moderated in Q4 but a lift in the birth rate saw annual natural increase rise 10% through the year.

US share markets rebounded on Thursday with semiconductor shares leading gains, as optimism about a Middle East peace deal helped ease inflation fears. The Dow Jones index finished up 0.1%, the S&P500 index was 1.1% higher and the Nasdaq index added 1.9%.

European share markets slipped as investors increased bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike later this year after policymakers struck a hawkish tone, though easing oil prices offered some relief on inflation.

Britain’s FTSE100 declined after The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, judging it premature to raise rates given uncertainty about inflation pressures. The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index ended down -0.3% and UK FTSE100 lost -1%.        

US government bond yields were steady, a day after investors adopted a hawkish view of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting and sent short-term yields to their highest level in 16 months.

The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped -1 point to 4.46% while the US 2-year Treasury yield gained 2 points to 4.18%.

Currencies were mixed against the US dollar. The Euro dipped -0.4% to US$1.1457, the Japanese yen dropped -0.5% to JPY161.39 and the Aussie dollar was flat to US70.13 cents.

Global oil prices were steady on Thursday after earlier touching their lowest since before the start of the Iran war following the interim deal to end fighting. Brent crude futures settled 0.5% higher at US$79.95 a barrel.

Base metal prices were lower on a stronger US dollar. Copper futures lost -1.7% while aluminium futures fell -0.7%.

Gold futures slumped after a hawkish US Federal Reserve lifted the US dollar. The futures settled -3.1% lower at US$4,246 an ounce.

Iron ore futures were flat, down -0.1% to US$101.14 an ounce.

Looking Ahead: Stock markets in the US and China are closed on Friday for public holidays.

Global: Business resigned to protracted disruption, Oxford Economics

Businesses remain sceptical about the potential for a speedy resolution to the disruption in the Middle East, based on our latest Global Risk Survey.

Among respondents canvassed after the announcement of a US-Iran agreement, more than two-fifths expect transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain below pre-war levels throughout the rest of this year and into 2027.

Businesses continue to anticipate subdued global growth in the near term. The average expectation of 2.2% growth in 2026 is weaker than our baseline forecast and businesses’ estimate immediately before the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran. Respondents expect only a muted recovery next year. 

However, businesses have become less concerned about the possibility of severe economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The perceived risk of a global recession has fallen back towards the level seen immediately before the outbreak of the war. 

The survey was completed by 144 businesses between May 28 and June 16. Almost a third of the responses were provided on June 15-16, after the announcement of a US-Iran agreement.

During the final days of the survey, news media reported the US and Iran had reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Still, businesses appear resigned to a protracted period of disruption.

Even after the announcement of a US-Iran agreement, more than two-fifths of businesses anticipate that disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will persist into 2027 –- around double the figure reported in April.

The latest survey points to an improvement in sentiment. Slightly more businesses are more positive than more negative about global growth prospects after the announcement of the US-Iran agreement, but only 3% of those canvassed on Monday 15th and Tuesday 16th June have become significantly more positive.

Our Global Business Sentiment Index confirms this picture. The index, which provides a gauge of risk-weighted expectations for world GDP based on average survey responses, still points to relatively subdued growth.

Many businesses remain concerned about the Middle East. Almost three-fifths cite the Middle East as a very significant risk to the global economy over the next two years, even after the announcement of the US-Iran agreement.

While respondents judge that the likelihood of an adverse Iran war scenario materialising has diminished, they still attach on average almost a 30% chance to either severe energy market disruption from a rekindled war in the near term, or a period of sustained disruption as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until 2028.

Businesses also perceive a higher policy rate outlook than prior to the Iran war, even after the announcement of a US-Iran agreement. Before the war began, only 1-in-20 businesses anticipated rate hikes by the end of this year.

In the latest survey, this figure has risen to more than a third of businesses for the Federal Reserve and almost a half for the Bank of England. In addition, around two-thirds of businesses were anticipating higher Eurozone policy rates prior to the European Central Bank’s June policy rate rise 

Corporate news in Australia:

• PLS Group ((PLS)) has approved circa $175 million in pre-final investment decision spending for its proposed P2000 expansion at the Pilgangoora lithium operation
• ACCC approves Macquarie Asset Management’s ((MQG)) $11.6bn takeover of Qube Holdings ((QUB)), with FIRB and New Zealand regulatory approvals still outstanding
• Washington H. Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) has agreed to sell Brickworks Industrial JV interests to Goodman Group ((GMG)) for $1.89bn 
• Challenger ((CGF)) will combine Fidante and Channel Capital to create a new funds management platform, Channel Group 
• Crescent Capital has launched a sale process for National Dental Care, with Morgan Stanley appointed adviser
• IFM Investors has increased its Atlas Arteria ((ALX)) holding to 38.8% as it pursues a $5.10 per share takeover despite board opposition and disagreement over valuation 
• Australian Agricultural Management is selling the Southern Cross Poultry Fund, with indicative bids due in mid-July
• Aware Super has completed the sale of a major water infrastructure portfolio, marking a significant transaction in the sector
• AirTrunk is seeking a $4.3bn loan, backed by Blackstone, to fund development of its SYD3 data centre project
• Sharon AI has secured $2.27bn in oversubscribed funding led by Situational Awareness and Oaktree, while delaying its planned ASX listing
• Dicker Data ((DDR)) is being viewed as a potential candidate for an equity raising as AI and data centre investment themes continue to attract capital
• Simon Beard has disclosed a $10m investment in the SpaceX IPO, joining a group of Australian investors backing Elon Musk’s venture 
• Transurban ((TCL)) has expanded its syndicated debt facility through an additional $825m tranche, further strengthening funding flexibility 

On the calendar today:

-NZ May trade bal

-JP May CPI

-CH Public Holiday

-UK May Retail sales

-US Public Holiday

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms