SKY NETWORK TELEVISION LIMITED (SKT)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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24/07/2025

1

Buy

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UBS considers SKY Network Television's acquisition of Discovery NZ an attractive deal for several reasons, including minimal capital outlay, synergies, and favourable timing. 

The company is paying -NZ$1 (one dollar) on a cash-free, debt-free basis, and expects to be free cash flow positive within 12-18 months, excluding transaction and net integration costs. 

The broker expects an acceleration of advertising share, with linear seen rising to 35% from 13% and digital to 24% from 2%. Content synergies of NZ$10-25m are expected.

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$3.25. This report was published yesterday.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.39 cents and EPS of 40.17 cents.

28/08/2025

2

Overweight

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Jarden retains Overweight with the 12-month target price unchanged at NZ$3.15, shifting the thesis from “value-gap” to yield.

FY25’s adjusted result was broadly in line (a small opex beat drove a 3% EBITDA beat), rugby rights have been rebased, and FY26 guidance implies softer near-term EBITDA (mid-point $152m; Jarden now $153m) with margins at the low end of the 21–23% range amid ongoing structural pressure on pay-TV.

Subscriber trends remain the key drag (total TV customers fell from 952k in FY23 to 864k in FY25) and Jarden flags risks around rights inflation, competition and capex, though the balance sheet supports a 30c dividend and $40m FCF on a $750m revenue base.

Forecasts are cut but the target stays at NZ$3.15 after roll-forward and trimming Discovery NZ value benefit to 6c (from 12c).

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.39 cents and EPS of 27.48 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 27.39 cents and EPS of 30.13 cents.