VULCAN STEEL LIMITED (VSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

14/08/2025

3

Neutral

$6.50

-0.31%

Ahead of FY25 results for steel companies, UBS sees mixed outlook with near-term demand soft particularly in the US while 12-month EPS growth outlook is supported by elevated steel prices.

Specifically, the broker highlights S232 tariffs have left to an increase in US steel spreads to US$487/st now from US$315/st in February.

The broker's key pick is Bluescope Steel over Vulcan Steel and Sims.

For Vulcan Steel, the broker is forecasting NZ$110m underlying EBITDA in line with guidance midpoint. Commentary on whether sales remains a priority over profitability will be eyed.

Neutral. Target trimmed to $6.50 from $7.30 on earnings downgrade, partially offset by roll-forward.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.48 cents and EPS of 11.87 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.87 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.

15/08/2025

2

Downgrade to Overweight from Buy

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Jarden reviews current New Zealand housing conditions and retains its NZ$7.55 target price for Vulcan Steel, lowering its rating to Overweight from Buy due to reduced upside.

The broker notes New Zealand’s housing market remains soft, with no recovery expected until 2026, while Australian exposure is not yet delivering benefits.

Vulcan Steel’s FY25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$106-109m is in line with the analysts' forecast, though trading in 2H25 was weaker than expected and recovery is now seen from late FY26.

Jarden prefers Vulcan Steel over Fletcher Building as the earlier cycle recovery trade, citing stronger competitive positioning and greater Australian exposure.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.85 cents and EPS of 9.77 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.33 cents and EPS of 22.27 cents.