Tag Archives: Utilities

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

 

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 closed lineball with its opening and yesterday’s close to finish down.4 of 1 point or 0.02% to 4583

-          The AUD held gains to climb higher over the session, currently reading 1.055vs the USD

-          Total volume were strong at over $4.2B

The Australian sharemarket see-sawed between small gains and losses mirroring Wall Street’s session as investors globally digested the US Fed’s latest policy meeting from the overnight session. The Fed’s decision to scrap “operation twist” with outright bond purchasing was neither here-nor-there, the main surprise was the announcement that interest rates will be kept at 0 until unemployment falls below 6.5%. The Aussie market had little direction all day with no significant domestic data being released.

Given the Fed news was lineball with what the market was expecting I suspect all eyes will be on a Fiscal cliff resolution, pronto. Whilst it is fairly well assumed that any big cliff fallout will be avoided, US domiciled traders holding capital gains may decide to liquidate positions before being slugged with additional taxes from Jan ‘13, particularly given the DOW’s almost 7% retracement in under a month enticing them to lock in recent gains. A quick look at the chart of DOW shows stiff resistance and a classic head and shoulders in the making at the 13,270 level. The market has hit and failed to break through the 13,270-ish level no less than 6 times this year. This also comes as Chairman Bernanke reminded markets last night of the real risks still remaining with regard to the fiscal cliff, commenting that the full ramifications are “too big” to be avoided.

The defensives continued their listless slide south/south east with the big 4 going no where, National Bank ((NAB)) closed down 0.2%, ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) finished where it opened. Telstra sustained slide continued with the telco closing down 0.5%. Wesfarmers ((WES)) and Woolworths ((WOW)) both dropped close to1%.

BHP Billiton ((BHP)) continued to climb higher thanks to an upgrade to overweight from marketweight by Macquarie Bank. BHP closed up 0.7% to $36.00. Rio Tinto ((RIO)) pushed higher to close up another 0.9% to$62.75.

DOW futures are pointing to a positive opening, currently up 24 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 closed on its lows to close up 8 points or 0.2% to 4583

-          The AUD held strong overnight gains, currently reading 1.0528 vs the USD

-          Total volume was strong at over $5B

Shares on the ASX200 continued to climb today, pushing through 4600 to fresh 16-month highs in early trade before closing close on its lows after the defensives dragged the broader index lower. The market opened with conviction across all sectors before a report that the lunatics in North Korea had launched a ballistic missile toward Japan swirled through markets and took the shine off the early move. Bullish economic data out of Germany had the DAX hitting its highest level since early 2008 and helped other European markets and Wall Street push out healthy gains.

A big news story for the morning was the Aussie dollar jumping above 1.05 against the greenback as confidence of a rebounding China got traders confident about prospects for Australian equities in 2013. Improving sentiment in the global growth story pushed the AUD to near three-month highs, despite the negative domestic outlook. The main driver offshore was the German business sentiment index which rebounded strongly to a seven-month high. German’s are traditionally rather conservative, perhaps overly pessimistic and if they seeing bullish signals then they must be seeing something good right? Well that was the way the market interpreted the news at least which bolstered Euro markets and flowed through to strong buying of the AUD which is widely known as a good barometer for confidence surrounding global growth.

Cyclicals again stole the show as the risk-on trade gathered even more momentum. BHP Billiton ((BHP)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) all rose between 1-2%.

Some strength in BHP and WPL can be attributed to BHP’s sale of its stake in the proposed Browse gas-export project in Australia to PetroChina. Browse operator and major stakeholder WPL jumped on the price implications of the deal.  

High-yielding defensive stocks saw more profit taking with Telstra ((TLS)) down 1.4%, ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) down 0.8%.

Everyone is taking notice of our market’s breakout and confident push through the 4550 resistance level to new 16-month highs. Markets generally appear like they will push higher as the Fiscal cliff saga seems to have eroded to a mound and positivity surrounding a rebounding China has investors feeling good.

The big question is whether the move into cyclicals will be from a defined switch out of the defensives OR fresh cash out of term deposits due to a lower interest rate environment. A best guess would be a mix of both.

The reaction of currencies and precious metals will be closely watched ahead of tonight FOMC decision regarding expansion of the current QE plan. Any expansion of QE will likely see gold move higher as has been seen in recent years.

DOW futures are pointing to a negative opening, currently down 11 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

 

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 showed good resilience to close up 18 points or 0.4% to 4576

-          The AUD drifted lower over the session... Currently reading 1.0483 vs the USD

-          Total volume for the day was inline with yearly averages at $3.8B.

The Australian share market showed good resilience today, managing to hold onto gains from the prior week’s trade after a very flat night offshore. Positive movement in commodities and metals overnight were the standout feature of the overnight session and further boosted confidence in a resurging Asian growth story. A Wall Street Journal article overnight reported that US politicians had made good headway in budget talks and added to the positive sentiment. Expectations are that this will be resolved, atleast in draft form by Christmas time, which is adding to risk-on sentiment.

The US Fed’s FOMC meeting will conclude on Wednesday and give direction on the central bank’s monetary policy stance for the coming months with expectations of more Treasury bond buying which will likely bolster markets. This will be followed by retail sales, industrial production and CPI out of the US later in the week.

In contrast to positive news out of the US and China, the domestic situation in Australia appears to be deteriorating rather rapidly, despite the positive comments from our Government. The National Bank’s index of business confidence, fell 8 points to -9 in November from October to the lowest level since 2009. The broader community seems rather pessimistic as the reality of a lower growth environment thanks to a stalling mining industry sinks in. The news failed to ruffle feathers in trade as we continued our sideway trend for the session.

We have been taking note of the continued strength in our cyclicals for most of December now. We made note of this when the comments came out but the positive rhetoric out of China should not be ignored. For the uninitiated the comments went something like this: China’s leaders pledged to promote domestic demand with policy support for economic recovery... Ignore this development at your own peril.

A jump in metals prices overnight (China bullishness) pushed our metals higher with OZ minerals ((OZL)) up 4.17%, Western Areas ((WSA)) up 5.91% and Iluka Resources ((ILU)) up 4.6%

The big miners had another stellar run after spot iron ore rallied close to 2% to US$123.40 a metric ton. BHP Billiton ((BHP)) rose 1.32%, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) rose 0.77%, and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) climbed 3.95%.

Other notable moves included:

Downer EDI ((DOW)) climbed 2.7% after settling a dispute with a Singaporean Power growth for $40m.

Yield stocks continued to firm with Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) up 0.64% and National bank ((NAB)) up 0.5%.

Lendlease ((LLC)) rose 1.5% after it was chosen as the preferred builder for a $1B revamp of Sydney’s Darling Harbour precinct.

 

DOW futures are pointing to a negative opening, currently down 14 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

 

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 made small gains up 6 points or 0.13% to 4557

-          The AUD drifted lower over day after climbing on Friday’s trade.. Currently reading 1.0475 vs the USD

-          Total volume for the day was light at $3.1B. This was well below the $4B+ we were seeing for most of last week though largely in-line for a Monday session.

Shares on the ASX took a slight pause to close marginally higher after strong gains on Friday thanks to offshore portfolio buying. The market hit a seven-week high intraday as positive US jobs data on Friday kept sentiment elevated. The XJO has risen 5.4% since mid-November but will run into stiff headwinds at the key 4550 resistance level.

The Monday Report detailed the US employment news on Friday night, which appeared to largely be priced into offshore markets in overnight trade. The biggest driver of stocks appears to be the strength in China following their mid-year slowdown which has helped spark rebounds in the big miners. Weekend data showed China’s industrial output rose 10.1% y/y in November, above October’s 9.6% rise and the strongest move since March. An anomaly in the positive Chinese data of late slowed our market intraday where Chinese exports only rose 2.9% vs expectation of a 9% rise.

RIO Tinto ((RIO)) is up 25% since it’s one year low in September. RIO had another strong day, closing up 1.9% to $61.30.

Positive data flowing from China has pushed Spot Iron Ore prices back through $120/t as optimism over demand grows. This comes as more good news for Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) who announced they will sell 25% of a joint venture back to BC Iron ((BCI)) for $190m. The transaction means BCI will increase its interest in the project from 50% to 75% and fund the deal using debt and existing cash. FMG closed up 6.8% to $4.05.

The high-yield plays also performed well, Westpac ((WBC)) and National Bank ((NAB)) the standout performers closing up 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

Japan’s GDP growth figures showed the economy contracted 0.9% in the July-September quarter or 3.5% on an annualised basis. Not a good news piece for the start of the Japanese election week where opposition leader Shinzo Abe is widely expected to defeat current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda. This could prove to be the kickstart Japan desperately needs as Abe has vowed to ramp up public expenditure and pressure the BoJ into aggressive monetary policy easing measures.

DOW futures are pointing to a flat opening, currently up 2 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)
 

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

 

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 closed up 42 points or nearly 1% to 4552

-          The AUD is lingering around the $1.048 level and looking toppy as it struggles to push through $1.05

-          Total volume for the day was just $3.5B below the current short term average and helped explain today’s unusual rise.

Shares on the ASX traded with surprising strength thanks to several large offshore buy orders with solid gains seen across all sectors after a neutral night offshore. Poor domestic economic data did little to slow the run higher with the market hitting a six-week high to climb over 1% intraday. Another raft of woeful growth forecasts for the broader Eurozone failed to push European markets lower overnight and kept the US market moving sideways. The poor growth outlook dragged oil prices lower by over 1%.

Several large offshore portfolio buy orders led the market higher as well as expectations of strong employment data for the month of November from the US due out tonight. Traders seemed convinced that this was a certainty and didn’t want to miss out on any rally that may develop tonight.  Continued strength from the Shanghai index also appeared to inject life into Asian indexes.

On the domestic data front, Australia’s trade deficit widened by over $0.66B to $2.1 billion in October. The deficit was the biggest since 2008 and wider than analyst expectations of $2B. The cumulative trade deficit over the calendar year to October was $11.9B. The deficit underscores our dependence on raw materials exports, the prices of which have declined markedly since the start of the year only increasing the deficit gap.

The strength of the banks was reportedly the result of overseas fund purchases. Commonwealth ((CBA)), ANZ ((ANZ)), National  Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) were all up around 1%.

CSL ((CSL)) rallied strongly all day following an upgrade from Credit Suisse to outperform from Neutral and increasing the price target by 12%. CSL closed the day up 2.5% to close at $54.77

Other standout movers for the day included Westfield ((WDC)), Goodman Group ((GMG)) which jumped between 1.5-3%                                                                                                                                            

DOW futures are are flat at present, currently up 5 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

 

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

 

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 closed down 11 points or 0.25% to 4509

-          The AUD drifted lower during the afternoon session after jumping on the employment data.. Currently reading 1.0462 vs the USD

-          Total volume for the day was $4B. This is slightly below the average at the same time last year and well above November’s average.

The Aussie share market was pushed lower by gentle profit taking over the day as investors were happy to watch progress surrounding the unfolding China story and Fiscal cliff from the sidelines. Gains in our market centred around the big miners follow strong gains on the ADRs thanks to encouraging comments from the new Chinese politburo. The defensives and high-yielders led declines after steering our market the past fortnight. A surprise fall in the jobless rate did little to the change Mr Market’s mind and investors were happy lock in profits and await developments overnight.

All eyes were on China overnight after incredibly bullish comments late yesterday from China’s new leadership pledged to promote domestic demand and urbanisation with greater policy support for the economic recovery. US coal heavyweights went ballistic on the news. Alpha Natural Resources jumped 10% on the news and other coal miners moved between 3-7%.

This comes as rumours swirl around the market that BHP Billiton ((BHP)) may be gearing  up for a takeover of another US coking coal goliath, Walter Energy at $55. Walter closed up 6.5% to $31.66 on the news. The US coal market had been in the doldrums for the past 12 months facing increasing pressure from Democrat led environmentalists and competition from falling domestic gas prices. This has seen the likes of coal miners like ANR falling from highs of around $60 2 years ago and $25 just 1 year ago to trade at current levels of $7.35 as of yesterday’s close. The industry is desperate and miners have resorted to scaling back production in order to avoid growing inventories as exports to Europe and Asia rapidly slowed in such a short period of time. The Chinese rhetoric that they will continue to support growth as well as whispers that BHP is interested in metallurgical coal (coking coal as we call it in Australia) is BIG news for cyclicals and the global growth story.

A shock fall in the unemployment rate to 5.2% against expectations that the rate would hold steady at 5.5%. Not that the market was paying attention as it barely awoke on the news. The dollar jumped from US$1.0445 to US$1.048 on the news as traders anticipated a slowdown in monetary policy intervention. The rise in employment numbers was mostly in the part time sector so likely to be seasonal and largely unimportant to the real economic picture.

Ten Network ((TEN)) confirmed a $230m capital raising at a massive discount to market as they try to pay down debt and battle declining ratings. The raising at 20c represents a 60% discount to their last traded price at 32c.

QBE ((QBE)) regained some ground today after being demolished in yesterday’s trade to finish up 1.8% to $10.

RIO Tinto ((RIO)) climbed through $60 intraday for the first time in 7 months to close the day up 0.96% to $59.92

The Shanghai Composite is off around 0.4% currently after gaining over 3% yesterday.

DOW futures are pointing to a weaker opening, currently down 20 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

The scoreboard:

-          The ASX200 closed up 17 points or 0.37% to 4520

-          The AUD was flat during the session after gaining 0.5% overnight. Currently reading 1.0478 vs the USD

-          Total volume for the day was $3.5B

Shares on the ASX were mostly higher after a quiet night offshore. Widespread gains on Asian markets during the session helped move our market higher after weak domestic data failed to lead stocks.

Australia’s Q3 GDP growth figure released early in the session was the main data point for the day. Australia’s economy grew at just 0.5% for the quarter, well below the consensus of forecast for an increase of 0.7% and the slowest rate since the QLD floods, and outside of that, since the GFC. The softer figure can be mostly attributed to lower household consumption which increased just 0.3% q/q which suggests consumers remain cautious and are not responding to the lower rate environment.

The market took badly to the news, trading lower by 10 points before finding support on the back of strength of other Asian indexes.

We are struggling to work out why, but the Shanghai index surged more than 3% intraday. The Chinese index had been seriously underperforming the rest of the globe but the move today injected a lot of confidence into other Asian indexes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up a solid 1.3%.

The yield plays continued to march higher following yesterday’s interest rate cut as investors try to look for some return on their money. The big 4 banks all looked better with Commonwealth ((CBA)) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) the standouts, up 0.96% and 0.73% respectively. Another cause for strength in the banking sector may be a quarterly report by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – a US government agency monitoring the financial sector) out last night which showed the US banking industry’s third-quarter earnings were the highest for any quarter since 2006, up 6.6% y/y. Banks in the US are in a stronger position thanks to a recovering housing sector and as regular readers will know, I believe a recovery in housing always leads a broader economic recovery.

QBE ((QBE)) took a pounding today following market speculation that a capital raising may be in the wings. QBE’s gearing is well above their average and lower interest rates domestically will likely mean less return on their ‘float’ (large swag of funds held (premiums) to payout claims as necessary). QBE closed the day down a shocking 4.72% or 50 cents to $10.10

A large ‘crossing’ (change in beneficial owner) of stock in Seven West Media ((SWM)) changed hands today worth approximately $20m. This line of stock represents around 1.2% of the issued capital in SWM and changed hands at $1.66, 4.5c above yesterday’s closing price of $1.61. SWM closed up 1 cent to $162.5

It is worth noting how much of the 25 point cut the banks have passed down to customers:

ING – 25 points

BOQ – 20 points

NAB – 20 points

CBA – 20 points

DOW futures are pointing to a strong opening, currently up 40 points 
 

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

 

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

The market punched through the key psychological 4500 level in a strong day across the board. Volumes were solid, particularly for a Friday with over $7B being traded, though a chunk of this will be due to yesterday’s equity options expiry.

Despite a large sell dumped into the market in the match pushing the market down 5 points and an additional $1B of stock going through in the closing period, the market held good gains closing up 28 points or 0.6% to 4506 and added to gains from last week. The Australian market has risen 4% in the last two weeks despite the volatility and inconsistent volume.  

There is a lot resistance at the 4500 level and this may prove a hurdle we can’t mount if developments surrounding Cliff negotiations do not improve. Most market observers are now of the view that Boehner and Obama will conceptually agree on what form the budgetary changes will take before Christmas and finalise the details in the new year.

Even news of a handshake agreement will be enough to put the issue behind us so we can focus on the strengthening economic data in the US. This is the real news and investors will get a big wakeup call when the nail biting over the cliff saga is behind us. Past experience tells us, markets tend to overreact to the resolution of such drawn out issues. A big Christmas rally is therefore not implausible and investors should consider appropriately exposing themselves to the cyclicals which will be the biggest beneficiary of a relief rally. The US market is looking a little toppy here in the short term though so we may see one more sell off before traders will be happy to move the market higher.

Rio Tinto ((RIO)) closed up 2.75% as the company announced a number capital expenditure cuts.

Metcash ((MTS)) fell 2.3% after reporting a 13% fall in FH profit as a result of heavy discounting of food and groceries.

The banks put in a particularly solid performance with the ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) closing up 1.1%, National Bank ((NAB)) up 1.46%, and Westpac ((WBC)) up 1.1% being the star performers.

Macquarie Bank ((MQG)) jumped 2.7% to an 18 month high on what looks like a bullish technical breakout.

Defensives lagged throughout the day with Telstra ((TLS)), Wesfarmers ((WES)) and CSL ((CSL)) all closed flat between 0.1%-0.5%
 

DOW futures are showing a negative read down 19 points.

Happy Friday!

(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)
 

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

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article 3 months old

Australian Stocks: What Happened Today?

By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital

The XJO put in a solid day of trade following positive leads from the Street overnight as Cliff talks once again stole the show. Both Obama and House of Reps. speaker Boehner said they were optimistic that a deal could be struck over the budgetary issue. The XJO finished the day on its highs up 30 points or 0.7% to points on better than recent volume of $3.5B despite trailing the futures by 10 points for most of the day.

You must now have observed that this is a nightly saga where equity markets around the around the world are totally dictated to by mere words from individual US politicians. This type of weak headline-driven price action makes trading markets incredibly difficult so for those traders out there trying to make sense of things, don’t be too hard on yourself because this is as tough as it gets.

Take some solace from the fact Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein described Obama’s fiscal cliff plan as “very credible”, we all know brokers have a vested interest in injecting confidence into markets but this is actually a pretty important development. Both because it means Obama actually has a plan and also because it shows Republican support for the Democrat’s plan. Obama taking the stage to confirm they were actively working on a ‘plan’ may be the next step to putting the issue to bed. Don’t expect the volatility to end before there a signatures on paper though.

On the data front, Aussie Q3 Capital Investment data showed capex had risen by 2.8% q/q (in real terms) in Q3 ahead of expectations of a 2% rise. More importantly total nominal capex in 12/13 was revised 3% lower from the previous estimate. The peak of the mining capex cycle is beginning to bite, BHP Billiton ((BHP)) chief said it was even behind us at the BHP AGM today, so don’t be surprised to see this number decline going forward. Anyone care to bet on an interest rate cut next Tuesday?

Mining services took a beating today following NRW Holdings’ ((NWH)) profit downgrade and sell off yesterday which has now fallen 28.9% in two days. Mining consumables (far more resilient than pure services and capital equipment suppliers) company Bradken ((BKN)) got sold down 7.1% to due to worsening sentiment in the sector. Other players in the space: Cardno ((CDD)), Macmahon Holdings ((MAH)), Ausdrill ((ASL)) all ended the day lower.

Otherwise it was a strong day for across the board with stocks in the defensive and cyclical sectors both ending the day well.

US futures closed the overnight session up 80 odd points then reopened intraday down 5 or so points. They are now tracking up nicely and are currently reading in the green up 18 points
 
(For a more comprehensive summary of last night’s market action see FNArena’s Overnight Report.)

This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.

708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no costconsultation and portfolioreview or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We can only assist investors who are classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.

708capital is a holder of AFSL. No. 386279

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - THIS MAY AFFECT YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:

This document is intended to provide general securities advice only, and has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs and therefore before acting on advice contained in this document you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Disclosure of Interests: 708capital receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. 708capital and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

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article 3 months old

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The past week has been fairly evenly balanced in terms of ratings changes by the eight brokers in the FNArena database, with seven ratings upgraded and ten downgraded during the period. Total Buy ratings now stand at 44.64%.

Among the upgrades were two resource plays, Atlas Iron ((AGO)) and Regis Resources ((RRL)). Atlas was upgraded by UBS to Neutral from Sell, as despite the weaker iron ore price the broker suggests Atlas has enough liquidity to meet its capex, dividend and tax requirements in FY13. Recent share price weakness has improved the value on offer enough for UBS to upgrade.

For Regis Resources, full year earnings showed a strengthening of the group's balance sheet, while Deutsche continues to see value as production increases from the combination of the Moolart Well and Garden Well projects and dividends from the company come closer to reality. Deutsche has lifted its rating to Buy from Hold, while also lifting its price target on the stock.

Among the industrials, UBS upgraded Breville Group ((BRG)) to Buy from Neutral given the expectation the company can continue to grow its share of the US market. Breville's profit result prompted changes to earnings forecasts and the result was an increase in UBS's price target for the stock.

While forecasting lower average income growth in the office sector in FY13, JP Morgan continues to like the quality of Dexus's ((DXS)) portfolio, while the broker also sees scope for an increase in payout ratios in coming years. This is enough for an upgrade to a Neutral rating from Underweight previously.

Sigma Pharmaceuticals ((SIP)) delivered a better interim profit result than Macquarie had forecast, the result being increases to estimates in coming years. Macquarie's price target increased as well and on valuation grounds the broker has upgraded to a Neutral rating from Sell.

Deutsche Bank upgraded both Leighton Holdings ((LEI)) and Myer ((MYR)) to Buy ratings this week, in both cases from Hold previously. For Leighton, Deutsche suggests the market is pricing in too much risk, particularly given the company is primarily exposed to low cost mines and committed LNG projects within its resource sector activities. There are also some potential balance sheet positives such as a sale of NextGen, which is enough to justify a more positive view at current share price levels.

With respect to Myer, an improvement in gross margin was the highlight of the full year profit result in Deutsche's view. Top line growth continues to look difficult to achieve but the stock offers an attractive yield and some longer-term value at current levels in the broker's view, which supports the upgrade in rating.

On the downgrade side of the ledger UBS has cut its rating on Ansell ((ANN)) to Sell from Neutral, the change something of a relative valuation call given the company is seen to have less defensive earnings than others in the sector. The downgrade in rating comes despite an increase in price target.

UBS also downgraded Brambles ((BXB)) to a Hold rating from Buy, again on valuation grounds following an 8% rally in the share price since full year earnings were announced in August. As UBS notes, the stock is now trading broadly in line with valuation.

Aquarius Platinum ((AQP)) has been downgraded by BA Merrill Lynch to Sell from Hold as part of a reinstatement of coverage. With two mines on care and maintenance the broker sees a turnaround as reliant on improving operations at Kroondal, which is currently operating at a loss. When political risk is added to the equation BA-ML sees little upside for the stock in the shorter-term.

Credit Suisse has similarly downgraded Envestra ((ENV)) to Sell from Hold, this coming after changes to estimates to account for expectations of upcoming draft regulatory decisions. The cuts to forecasts impacted on the broker's price target, while the rating downgrade is a valuation call by Credit Suisse.

The Reject Shop ((TRS)) was also downgraded to Sell from Hold by Credit Suisse, this after recent share price outperformance suggests limited further upside from current levels. While group gearing should improve with Ipswich DC flooding claims being finalised, Credit Suisse expects tough operating conditions will continue for some time.

Recent share price strength has been enough for Citi to downgrade Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) to Hold from Buy, as even allowing for an increase in price target the broker doesn't see enough upside from current levels to justify a more positive rating. 

JP Morgan has made two downgrades over the week, lowering ratings on both Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)) to Sell from Hold. For Southern Cross, still tough TV conditions lead the broker to suggest further cuts to consensus earnings estimates are unlikely, something that will act to limit potential share price upside.

In Toll's case, JP Morgan suggests a focus on market share is generating some domestic margin pressure and this suggests earnings headwinds are likely to remain in place for some time. Along with the downgrade in rating, the broker has trimmed earnings forecasts and price target.

OnTheHouse Holdings ((OTH)) delivered a result better than RBS Australia had forecast for FY12, but the broker expects FY13 will see earnings pumped back into the online business an in attempt to ensure longer-term growth. This is enough to prompt a downgrade to a Hold rating from Buy.

Macquarie has similarly downgrade Woodside ((WPL)) to Hold from Buy, this as a result of taking a less bullish view on the outlook for Australian LNG plays given the expectation of increasing competition in the global market. This view prompted cuts to earnings estimates and the broker's price target for the stock.

With respect to changes to price targets, the largest increases were seen in Webjet ((WEB)) and Sigma, while the largest decrease was in NRW Holdings ((NWH)). Only the latter saw a change of more than 10%.

Changes to earnings estimates were more significant, with Aquarius seeing the largest increase in forecasts and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)), Lynas ((LYC)) and Gindalbie ((GBG) experiencing the largest cuts to earnings expectations.  

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

 

Broker Recommendation Breakup
Suisse,Deutsche<*br*>Bank,JP<*br*>Morgan,Macquarie,RBS<*br*>Australia,UBS&b0=114,91,103,91,74,130,140,116&h0=76,116,91,130,97,100,154,125&s0=50,26,38,9,45,36,10,15" style="border-bottom: #000000 1px solid; border-left: #000000 1px solid; border-top: #000000 1px solid; border-right: #000000 1px solid" />

 

Broker Rating

Order Company Old Rating New Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 ATLAS IRON LIMITED Sell Neutral UBS
2 BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED Neutral Buy UBS
3 DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP Sell Neutral JP Morgan
4 LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Buy Deutsche Bank
5 MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Buy Deutsche Bank
6 REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED Neutral Buy Deutsche Bank
7 Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd Sell Neutral Macquarie
Downgrade
8 ANSELL LIMITED Neutral Sell UBS
9 AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED Neutral Sell BA-Merrill Lynch
10 BRAMBLES LIMITED Buy Neutral UBS
11 ENVESTRA LIMITED Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
12 INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
13 ONTHEHOUSEHOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Neutral RBS Australia
14 SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP Neutral Sell JP Morgan
15 THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
16 TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Sell JP Morgan
17 WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
 

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous Rating New Rating Change Recs
1 PAN 67.0% 100.0% 33.0% 3
2 BRG 67.0% 100.0% 33.0% 3
3 SIP - 14.0% 14.0% 28.0% 7
4 DXS - 29.0% - 14.0% 15.0% 7
5 BSL 43.0% 57.0% 14.0% 7
6 RRL 57.0% 71.0% 14.0% 7
7 AGO 50.0% 63.0% 13.0% 8
8 WEB 25.0% 33.0% 8.0% 3

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous Rating New Rating Change Recs
1 AQP 40.0% 20.0% - 20.0% 5
2 CTX - 33.0% - 50.0% - 17.0% 6
3 ARI 83.0% 67.0% - 16.0% 6
4 GPT - 14.0% - 29.0% - 15.0% 7
5 NWH 86.0% 71.0% - 15.0% 7
6 BXB 86.0% 71.0% - 15.0% 7
7 ANN 29.0% 14.0% - 15.0% 7
8 IAG 38.0% 25.0% - 13.0% 8
9 NCM 38.0% 25.0% - 13.0% 8
10 SUN 88.0% 75.0% - 13.0% 8
 

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous Target New Target Change Recs
1 WEB 3.580 3.917 9.41% 3
2 SIP 0.627 0.681 8.61% 7
3 BRG 5.683 6.117 7.64% 3
4 RRL 4.686 4.844 3.37% 7
5 ANN 15.060 15.226 1.10% 7
6 GPT 3.500 3.534 0.97% 7
7 IAG 4.079 4.098 0.47% 8
8 CTX 14.060 14.110 0.36% 6
9 CHC 2.656 2.663 0.26% 6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous Target New Target Change Recs
1 NWH 3.924 3.516 - 10.40% 7
2 PAN 1.175 1.083 - 7.83% 3
3 ARI 1.238 1.172 - 5.33% 6
4 AGO 2.299 2.236 - 2.74% 8
5 SXL 1.501 1.471 - 2.00% 8
6 WPL 40.359 40.171 - 0.47% 8
 

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous EF New EF Change Recs
1 AQP 2.608 3.387 29.87% 5
2 COH 274.738 281.325 2.40% 8
3 SIP 4.657 4.757 2.15% 7
4 GPT 23.957 24.129 0.72% 7
5 QRN 21.075 21.200 0.59% 7
6 RMD 19.962 20.004 0.21% 8
7 WPL 223.107 223.443 0.15% 8
8 WDC 63.775 63.813 0.06% 8
9 SGP 28.914 28.929 0.05% 7
10 HZN 2.081 2.082 0.05% 4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Previous EF New EF Change Recs
1 PAN 4.400 0.125 - 97.16% 3
2 LYC 1.800 0.600 - 66.67% 5
3 GBG 4.567 3.617 - 20.80% 6
4 AGO 12.763 11.513 - 9.79% 8
5 FMG 53.948 49.840 - 7.61% 8
6 RRL 60.529 56.286 - 7.01% 7
7 GRR 6.933 6.517 - 6.00% 6
8 MGX 24.363 22.963 - 5.75% 8
9 NWH 41.086 39.543 - 3.76% 7
10 BHP 280.180 271.866 - 2.97% 8
 

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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