FORTESCUE LIMITED (FMG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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FMG

FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Iron Ore
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 0.7
Index: ASX20 | ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Fortescue Metals is an Australian iron ore company with operations in the Pilbara, Western Australia. It is the fourth largest iron ore producer in the world and became a listed company, through a backdoor-listing, in 2003.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$19.13

26 Sep
2025

-0.010

OPEN

$18.97

-0.05%

HIGH

$19.24

5,653,759

LOW

$18.97

TARGET
$18.207 -4.8% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ARI . CIA . DRR . FEX . GEN . GRR . MGX . MIN .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
FMG: 1
Title FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) 151.9 xxx
DPS (cps) 98.0 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio 12.6 xxx
Dividend Yield 5.1% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) 64.5% xxx
This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 6.68%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 5.75

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 04/09 - ex-div 89c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx169.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx110.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23,996.7 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx991.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9,942.4 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx21.70 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.43 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.79 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.07 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.43 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.83 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx501.8 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx336 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,964 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,299 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx298 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6,604 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.54

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,038.4 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx21.00 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,553 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,519 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx851 M
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx435 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.1

No. Of Recommendations

7
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Bell Potter

27/08/2025

5

Downgrade to Sell from Hold

$17.05

-10.87%

Fortescue's FY25 revenue and EBITDA were a slight beat to Bell Potter's forecasts and the consensus.

Commentary suggests context is important as expectations were set low and revenue/EBITDA/net profit were all materially lower y/y.

Record production, good cost control and favourable exchange rate moves were not enough to offset lower realised iron ore price, which was down -18% y/y.

Free cash flow dropped due to higher capex and energy division costs, though on the positive side the analyst discovered the dividend was higher than expected.

The broker is cautious on the outlook as the recent uptick in the iron ore price is unlikely to see any sustained upside. Capex and energy division costs are elevated along with risks of further project delays.

FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -4% and FY27 by -5%. Target lowered to $17.05 from $17.40. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 91.00 cents and EPS of 127.33 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 91.61 cents.

Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

4

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

03/09/2025

4

Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral

$16.00

-16.36%

Jarden downgrades Fortescue to Underweight from Neutral due to the stock's recent outperformance and valuation grounds.

The miner achieved what the analyst considers "operational excellence" in FY25, with record shipments and industry-leading costs. Momentum has been retained into FY26.

The analyst raises capital investment forecasts by 2%-4% for FY27-FY30, with only slight changes to other operating financial forecasts, resulting in an impact on EPS estimates, down -3% for FY26 and -2% for FY27.

Target slips to $16 from $16.25.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 140.84 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 63.66 cents and EPS of 86.49 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

FMG STOCK CHART

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