FORTESCUE LIMITED (FMG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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FMG

FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Iron Ore
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 0.5
Index: ASX20 | ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Fortescue Metals is an Australian iron ore company with operations in the Pilbara, Western Australia. It is the fourth largest iron ore producer in the world and became a listed company, through a backdoor-listing, in 2003.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$16.21

27 Mar
2025

0.000

OPEN

$16.11

0.000

HIGH

$16.33

5,462,751

LOW

$16.07

TARGET
$17.80 9.8% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ARI . BCI . CIA . DRR . FEX . GEN . GRR . MGX . MIN .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
FMG: 1
Title FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) 163.3 xxx
DPS (cps) 95.0 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio 9.8 xxx
Dividend Yield 5.9% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) 58.2% xxx
This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 10.11%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 12.30

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 04/09 - ex-div 89c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx282.0
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx197.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx27,804.6 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx951.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx12,026.8 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx31.19 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx30.81 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx24.14 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx19.31 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx30.81 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx35.83 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,384.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx287 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,798 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,086 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx292 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,341 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.25

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,324.8 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.55 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13,452 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,390 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx755 M
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx545 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.0

No. Of Recommendations

7
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

06/03/2025

3

Equal-weight

$18.15

11.97%

In further news showing Fortescue's slowing/ceasing investments in its hydrogen business, recent media articles point to a dissolution of the green energy partnership with Plug Power. Plug was Fortescue's preferred supplier of its Gibson Island Project in Queensland.

This news follows Incitec Pivot's ((IPL)) announcement flagged it was selling the Gibson Island property proposed as the location for the project in November last year, oberves the broker.

Equal-weight rating. Target $18.15. Industry view: Attractive.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 114.92 cents and EPS of 174.69 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 105.73 cents and EPS of 168.56 cents.

Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Goldman Sachs

26/02/2025

5

Sell

$16.20

-0.06%

Fortescue's 1H25 underlying EBITA was -3% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, and interim dividend of 50c was below 54c forecast but payout of 65% was in-line.

The broker notes the targeted date for ramp-up of the Iron Ore Bridge projection to 22Mtpa by September quarter is under review, but it is already factoring in a slower ramp-up to 10Mtpa by FY27.

The analyst continues to think Fortescue is at an inflection point on capital allocation and assumes a reduction in the dividend payout ratio to 50% from FY26 onwards from the current 65%.

The broker lowered FY25 and FY26 forecasts by -2% and -4% respectively. Target price drops to $16.2 from $16.4, and Sell maintained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.54 cents and EPS of 160.90 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.02 cents and EPS of 144.04 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

FMG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on FMG

1
In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 28-03-25

Mar 28 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 24, 2025

Mar 24 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
ESG Focus: Fund Flows, Tariffs, Defence & AI

Mar 20 2025 - ESG Focus
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 26, 2025

Feb 26 2025 - Daily Market Reports
5
Fortescue: Quo Vadis The Dividend?

Feb 24 2025 - Commodities

Latest Iron Ore News

1
Fortescue: Quo Vadis The Dividend?

Feb 24 2025 - Commodities
2
Fortescue Looks Poised

Nov 05 2024 - Technicals
3
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May 15 2024 - ESG Focus
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Mar 26 2024 - Technicals
10
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Sep 21 2023 - ESG Focus