OCEANIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED (OCA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

13/10/2025

1

Outperform

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Management at Oceania Healthcare has outlined a pragmatic near-term strategy at its investor day, according to Macquarie, focused on improving sales, reducing costs, and adding service offerings.

The approach prioritises stability over growth, with the company trading at around 0.5x book value, highlights the analyst.

Strong applications from potential residents in 1H26, up 58% year-on-year, are expected to drive higher settlements in 2H26, while annualised cost savings of NZ$20m sit at the top end of guidance.

Development will remain modest at 100-150 units per year through FY31, notes Macquarie, supported by divestments and a planned reduction in gearing to 30-35%.

The broker cuts its FY26 earnings forecast by -2.8% and raises FY27 by 1.8%, expecting positive free cash flow (FCF) by FY27.

Outperform. Target price NZ99c.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.45 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 1.27 cents and EPS of 8.81 cents.

29/09/2025

3

Neutral

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Management at Oceania Healthcare presented at the company's investor day with Jarden noting confidence around intent and capability despite portfolio and capital structure constraints.

Oceania aims for an integrated care model across its portfolio by FY30, with divestments of between -4-6 sites planned and annual development delivery of 100-150 units in FY27-31.

Cost savings were at the top end of Jarden's expectations, lifting care profitability to around $20k per bed in FY26 and $25k in FY27 from $13k in FY25.

The broker trims forecasts slightly and revises its target to NZ$0.72 from NZ$0.73 while retaining a Neutral rating.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -5.50 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.00 cents.