MADER GROUP LIMITED (MAD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

27/08/2025

1

Buy

$9.00

12.08%

Mader Group's FY25 revenue, group EBITDA and net profit were all in line with guidance and Bell Potter's forecasts.

Australia EBITDA lagged due to weaker margin, North America was in line and Rest of World beat both on revenue and margin, aided by a major African contract.

The broker views the FY26 guidance of over $1bn revenue and net profit of over $65m as conservative based on positive momentum at FY25-exit. 

Minor changes to forecasts. Buy. Target unchanged at $9.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 38.20 cents.

02/09/2025

3

Downgrade to Hold from Buy

$8.29

3.24%

Mader Group's FY25 results were in line with guidance and forecasts by Moelis, with revenue of $870m and profit of $57m.

Australia grew 17% on strong contributions from infrastructure, rail, and road, highlights the broker, while North America improved in the second half with 8% revenue growth and stable margins.

The group profit margin expanded to 6.6%, and a fully franked 4c dividend was declared.

Net debt fell to $8m from $23.2m in December, with the business on track for a net cash position within twelve months, suggests the analyst. Cash conversion of 101% supported $42.7m in operating cash flow, with cash of $24m at June end.

FY26 guidance targets at least $1bn in revenue and $65m profit, consistent with the five-year strategic plan, observes Moelis.

Moelis raises its target price to $8.29 from $6.83 reflecting stronger domestic momentum and higher utilisation of a growing workforce. and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.