In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 16-01-26

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This story features NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NIC
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity notes base metals have continued to perform strongly, supported by global growth, with copper a standout due to tight supply, surging demand and zero TCRCs highlighting concentrate scarcity. TCRC stands for Treatment and Refining Charges.

The broker revised its base metals outlook, lifting near-term prices across all metals (except lead) and raising long-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, cobalt and tin. Copper’s long-term price forecast increased by 22% to US$5.50/lb to reflect a structural market shift.

At Nickel Industries’ December quarterly, the broker expects operational EBITDA to decline -4% to US$80m due to weaker nickel prices, driving a -36% fall in cash to US$633m.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $1.05 from $0.80 on a higher nickel price forecast and trimming of the discount rate to 11% from 12%.

Downgrade

CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden analysts note what they view as “surprising” the resilience in Chinese demand for seaborne iron ore imports in the face of soft steel demand which continues to underpin iron ore prices above US$100/t.

The analysts mark to market the Dec 2025 quarter 58% Fe price to around US$95/t and a long term assumption of US$64/t (real) by FY29 which is below consensus and is expected to remain above US$70/t through FY28.

Champion Iron is expected to report Dec qtr production of 3.6wmt and sales of 3.86m dmt which is flat on the prior quarter. Realised pricing is forecast at CA$116/dmt, down -9% q/q due to higher spot exposure and a compressed premium for P65 (Platts IODEX 65% iron ore price benchmark).

The broker forecasts earnings (EBITDA) to slip by -26% q/q which is below consensus by -12%. A rise in 65% iron ore assumptions lifts the analysts’net profit forecasts by 6%-11% for FY26-FY28.

Jarden prefers Champion over the other iron ore producers, trading a marginal premium to its valuation with target set at $5.70. Stock is downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Endeavour Group served up weaker than expected 1H26 earnings guidance with EBIT down around -6% y/y with Jarden highlighting retail sales rose 0.6% y/y or 2.2% including cycling of strikes in response to around -$11m in price changes in 2Q26 and a cut in retail gross margin.

Hotels remain the upbeat segment with growth in gaming machine spending nationally. The weather in January is expected to drive further strength, the analyst notes.

The broker continues to like the business and sees it as a quality operator against a challenging macro backdrop, cutting earnings forecasts to align with the guidance downgrade, including management’s comments on price discounting on margins.

Target price is lowered to $3.30 from $3.60 with a downgrade in the rating to Underweight from Neutral.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.64 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity notes base metals have continued to perform strongly, supported by global growth, with copper a standout due to tight supply, surging demand and zero TCRCs highlighting concentrate scarcity. TCRC stands for Treatment and Refining Charges.

The broker revised its base metals outlook, lifting near-term prices across all metals (except lead) and raising long-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, cobalt and tin. Copper’s long-term price forecast increased by 22% to US$5.50/lb to reflect a structural market shift.

At the December quarterly, 29Metals is expected to reveal a strong rebound in production after a weak September quarter. The broker notes the company requires record copper output to meet FY25 guidance.

Sell maintained. Target rises to 55c from 25c on commodity price revisions.

This report was published on January 12, 2026.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting downside of -37.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.60 

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

Copper traded sideways through the first half of the December quarter, explains Moelis, before rallying strongly into year end, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and resilient demand expectations.

LME three-month prices exited 2025 at around US$5.70/lb. While consensus price forecasts continue to lag spot levels, the broker’s price assumptions increase materially by 5-15% across the forecast period, with long-term prices lifted 11% to around US$4.57/lb.

As a result of these new forecasts, the target price for AIC Mines rises to 67c from 54c. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 7, 2026.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.07
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 12.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.3, implying annual growth of 65.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. 

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 65.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.53 

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Alkane Resources delivered a strong December quarter, in Moelis’ opinion, with gold production and sales materially ahead of the broker’s forecasts. A higher cash balance also reflects an improved performance at Tomingley and Costerfield, notes the analyst.

Guidance reiteration is encouraging, suggests the broker, especially given prior conservative assumptions following the Mandalay merger, pointing to emerging operational momentum.

The analyst considers the first full post-merger quarter to demonstrate a run-rate that positions Alkane among the leading small-cap producers, with valuation still discounting execution progress.

Separately, Moelis raises its gold price forecasts with minimal change in the near term, followed by more meaningful increases of 15-20% from 2027 and around 11% over the longer term. As a result, the target for Alkane Resources rises to $1.80 from $1.65.

The broker retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on January 9, 2026.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.27
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.44 

Moelis rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis assesses a strong preliminary December quarter update by Black Cat Syndicate, with gold production of 25.4koz materially ahead of the broker’s forecasts, reflecting improving operational momentum.

A weaker sales outcome weighed on reported metrics, notes the analyst, but the cash balance broadly matched expectations, implying disciplined cost or capital management.

The broker sees progress at Fingals and Majestic as critical, with these 100%-owned ore sources set to fully supply Lakewood from June, supporting an annualised run-rate above 100koz.

The analyst views valuation as compelling, noting unhedged exposure to record gold prices and diversification across two operations, despite remaining mine-life and cost-detail risks.

Separately, Moelis raises its gold price forecasts with minimal change in the near term, followed by more meaningful increases of 15-20% from 2027 and around 11% over the longer term. As a result, the target for Black Cat Syndicate rises to $1.80 from $1.60.

The broker retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on December 8, 2025.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.36
If BC8 meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.02.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.19.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELV    ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $10.07 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ELV)) as Buy (1) –

Elevra Lithium has identified a staged, accelerated pathway that could lift North American Lithium (NAL) output 15-20% to 250kt by mid-2027 vs Canaccord Genuity’s forecast of 208kt.

This would bring full expansion forward to early 2028, with potential EBITDA upside and smoother capex funding. As background, the September 2025 scoping study outlined a US$270m expansion to lift NAL capacity to 2Mtpa from 20230, boosting production 50% to 315ktpa and materially lowering costs.

Strong spodumene pricing significantly enhances near-term earnings and cash flow, positioning the company to self-fund expansion and maximise margins while de-risking the asset through the cycle, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target price unchanged at $12.50 (was lifted to $12.50 from $9.50 on November 19).

This report was published on January 12, 2026.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.07 Difference: $2.43
If ELV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2582.05.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14385.71.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $22.65 

Jarden rates ((FMG)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden analysts note what they view as “surprising” the resilience in Chinese demand for seaborne iron ore imports in the face of soft steel demand which continues to underpin iron ore prices above US$100/t.

The analysts mark to market the Dec 2025 quarter 58% Fe price to around US$95/t and a long term assumption of US$64/t (real) by FY29 which is below consensus and is expected to remain above US$70/t through FY28.

Jarden lifts Fortescue’s earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 6% for FY26, 14% for FY27 and 18% for FY28 on a rise in iron ore price forecasts for FY26-FY28.

Underweight rated with a $17 target price (from $16) due to higher iron ore price assumptions.

This report was published on January 14, 2026.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $22.65 Difference: minus $5.65 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.03, suggesting downside of -11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 202.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. 

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 133.07 cents and EPS of 145.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.6, implying annual growth of -25.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. 

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GGP    GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $12.59 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GGP)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity lifted its long-term gold price forecast by 3.5% to US$4,909/oz from 2029 and raised medium-term estimates by 2.1% (2026-28). The broker’s long-term forex forecasts are unchanged, leading to a 3.5% rise in gold price estimate in AUD terms to $7,013/oz.

The broker also increased the long-term silver price forecast by 36.6% to US$77.7/oz. 

Price targets for senior and intermediate/junior producers lifted by an average 5% after factoring in revised forecasts.

Greatland Resources’ December quarter production of 86koz was up 7% q/q and beat consensus, but sales lagged due to timing, the broker notes. Cash and bullion surged $198m q/q to $948m despite capex and a one-off -$46m stamp duty payment.

Buy. Target rises to $12.50 from $11.55.

This report was published on January 13, 2026.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If GGP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of 53.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.1, implying annual growth of -39.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.51 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity lifted its long-term gold price forecast by 3.5% to US$4,909/oz from 2029 and raised medium-term estimates by 2.1% (2026-28). The broker’s long-term forex forecasts are unchanged, leading to a 3.5% rise in gold price estimate in AUD terms to $7,013/oz.

The broker also increased the long-term silver price forecast by 36.6% to US$77.7/oz. 

Price targets for senior and intermediate/junior producers lifted by an average 5% after factoring in revised forecasts.

The broker notes Ramelius Resources delivered December production in line with consensus and remains on track for FY26 guidance of 185-205koz. Cash declined due to tax and dividend payments, but underlying free cash flow was a solid $67m.

Buy. Target rises to $6.05 from $5.80.

This report was published on January 13, 2026.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.54
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting downside of -3.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of -42.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 18.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $6.67 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Silex Systems’ 51%-owned Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) joint venture with Cameco has been awarded US$28m by the US Department of Energy to advance next-generation laser enrichment technology.

Canaccord Genuity sees this win as notable support despite GLE not securing a Task Order 2 (TO2) award, which allocated up to US$900m each to three other enrichment groups.

The broker highlights GLE as the clear front-runner in third-generation enrichment, being the only company to have achieved Technology Readiness Level 6 (TRL-6) and entered formal Nuclear Regulatory Commission review.

While disappointed by the TO2 outcome, the analysts view the funding as reinforcing ongoing Department of Energy backing and strategic relevance. GLE was the only confirmed laser enricher to receive funding.

Canaccord Genuity has a Speculative Buy rating on Silex Systems and an unchanged target price of $9.42.

This report was published on January 6, 2026.

Target price is $9.42 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $2.75
If SLX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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