NOVONIX LIMITED (NVX)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

11/06/2025

1

Buy

$0.77

87.80%

Petra Capital highlights Novonix as a clear beneficiary of escalating US tariffs on Chinese graphite products.

The broker points to the company's fully domestic US supply chain and strategic positioning as the US seeks to build a sovereign EV battery industry.

Management is on track to begin first production from its Riverside plant in late 2025 and commence anode sales to Panasonic in early 2026, highlights the analyst.

Major offtake agreements with Panasonic, Stellantis, LG Energy Solutions, and PowerCo have been struck.

Government backing remains strong, assesses the broker, with over US$250m in grant, tax credit, and equity support for the Riverside facility, and a US$754m loan offer for the Enterprise South expansion.

Forecast downgrades ; FY26–FY27 revenue was revised down -28% to -33%, while FY28 EBITDA and NPAT were lifted by 74% and 205%, respectively.

Petra Capital lowers its target price to 77c from $1.08 reflecting updated currency assumptions, a delay in first product sales, equity dilution, and a write-down of the company's Kore Power stake. A Buy rating is retained.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -12.40 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -3.00 cents.