ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED (ELV)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

08/12/2025

1

Outperform

$7.00

-7.28%

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

Sharp upgrades made to Elevra Lithium's EPS forecasts for FY26-27 on updated commodity price forecasts. 

Outperform rating. Target rises to $7.00 from $5.20.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -23.50 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -24.80 cents.

13/10/2025

1

Buy

$9.50

25.83%

Canaccord Genuity notes lithium markets had a strong September quarter thanks to y/y EV sales growth, lift in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) demand forecasts, and supply disruptions in China.

The broker's lithium stocks collectively rose, in line with the increase in lithium pricing and general positive macroeconomic factors.

Minor revisions made to lithium product prices

At the September quarterly, the broker expects Elevra Lithium to report -8% decline in q/q production at 54kt SC5.2, with costs to benefit from operational improvements and optimisation.

Buy. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.00 on revised prices and valuation roll-forward.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.39 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.07 cents.