ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED (ELV)
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08/10/2026

1

Outperform

$11.50

186.78%

Macquarie remains constructive on lithium despite weak market sentiment, arguing continued inventory drawdowns point to a tighter physical market than current prices imply.

Supply risks remain underappreciated, in the broker's view, including CATL's Jianxiawo mine outage and licensing delays across Chinese lepidolite operations. It's also felt that larger EV battery packs could provide additional demand support.

Macquarie switches its preferred lithium exposure to PLS Group from IGO Ltd.

Reduced risk for PLS is noted around P2000 capex and a near-term production uplift is seen as a catalyst.

Liontown screens as the most expensive, implying a spodumene price of around US$1,300/t SC6, followed by IGO at US$1,200/t and PLS at US$1,125/t.

The smaller, Elevra Lithium screens as the cheapest, implying around US$900/t SC6, Macquarie highlights.

Unchanged Outperform rating and $11.50 target for Elevra Lithium.

This is a summary of research released by Macquarie yesterday.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.60 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.

10/09/2026

1

Buy

$17.65

340.15%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Elevra Lithium with its target price decreased to $17.65 from $17.80 following the release of pre-feasibility study outcomes for the planned North American Lithium expansion.

The study outlines an increase in average post-expansion production to 373ktpa, driven by higher mill head grades achieved through ore sorting, with capital expenditure and operating costs holding steady at US$271m and US$706 per tonne.

The analyst views the staged three-phase rollout through mid-2029 favourably as it reduces execution risk and spreads capital expenditure, noting the project is fully funded from cash reserves, future operational cash flow, and asset sale proceeds.

Model revisions lift average life-of-mine concentrate production to 355ktpa at an all-in sustaining cost of US$703 per tonne sold, though higher strip ratios increase projected mining costs across FY28 to FY30.

Canaccord Genuity highlights substantial upside potential from an updated development study for the Moblan deposit due in the December quarter of 2026.