ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED (ELV)
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25/08/2026

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

$10.00

32.80%

UBS remains positive on lithium demand, with global battery installations up 31% y/y and BESS up 127% in June, while low inventories and a measured supply response are keeping markets tight.

However, the broker cuts 2027-29 spodumene price forecasts by -43%, -23% and -5%, respectively, expecting a flatter price cycle just as the sector enters another major capex phase.

Near-term free cash flow forecasts are consequently reduced by as much as -50%, leaving UBS more cautious on lithium equities following their recent rally despite the still-healthy demand outlook.

Elevra Lithium is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a lower target price of $10 from $11.70. EPS forecasts are cut by -47% for FY27 and -52% for FY28.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.07 cents.

01/09/2026

1

Buy

$17.80

136.39%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Elevra Lithium with a $17.80 target price following an FY26 result featuring Group EBITDA of US$14m and reported NPAT of US$44m.

Earnings missed consensus expectations primarily due to non-cash items related to the 2025 SYA/PLL merger, though operating earnings at the NAL project aligned with estimates.

Management guided FY27 production to between 198kt and 210kt with cash costs of US$880 to US$950 per tonne, noting higher expenses attributed to an elevated strip ratio and pre-stripping costs.

Capital expenditure guidance of US$120m to US$140m represents a fast-tracked spend designed to expedite Stage 2 expansion works at NAL to reach production exceeding 220ktpa.

The analyst reduces FY27 EBITDA estimates to US$284m from US$314m to reflect the higher cost and capital assumptions, while highlighting the business remains well-funded with US$255m in cash.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.