ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED (ELV)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

16/10/2025

1

Outperform

$5.50

35.47%

Macquarie reviews its September quarter production, price and costs estimates for stocks under coverage in the Critical Minerals sector.

For Elevra Lithium, the broker forecasts September quarter spodumene production at 52kt, around -11% below the June quarter, reflecting additional maintenance following the year-end production surge.

Full-year output is projected at 204kt, the midpoint of 190-210kt guidance, consistent with a steady operational outlook.

The analyst expects shipments to fall -48% quarter-on-quarter as sales are weighted toward the second half, aligned with an anticipated market recovery. Lower volumes are expected to temporarily lift unit costs in the September quarter.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $5.50.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -60.30 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -55.30 cents.

16/10/2025

1

Buy

$9.50

133.99%

Canaccord Genuity notes lithium markets had a strong September quarter thanks to y/y EV sales growth, lift in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) demand forecasts, and supply disruptions in China.

The broker's lithium stocks collectively rose, in line with the increase in lithium pricing and general positive macroeconomic factors.

Minor revisions made to lithium product prices

At the September quarterly, the broker expects Elevra Lithium to report -8% decline in q/q production at 54kt SC5.2, with costs to benefit from operational improvements and optimisation.

Buy. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.00 on revised prices and valuation roll-forward.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.39 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.07 cents.