AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED (AIZ)
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29/06/2026

5

Sell

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Higher fuel prices in the June quarter stemming from the Middle East conflict mean deeper losses in the second half for Air New Zealand, UBS asserts.

Under the broker's current assumptions of resolution to the conflict and normalisation in crude prices, pre-tax losses are still likely to continue in FY27 although the pressure on the balance sheet appears manageable.

The recent drop in the share price reduces the "overvaluation" yet UBS retains a Sell rating until there is greater confidence in normalised oil supply.

No dividends are expected before FY28. Target is reduced to NZ$0.40 from NZ$0.42.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.69 cents.

01/09/2026

4

Upgrade to Underweight from Sell

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Jarden upgrades to an Underweight rating for Air New Zealand with its target price increased to NZ$0.40 from NZ$0.39 following an FY26 result featuring a net profit before tax loss of -NZ$336m.

The reported loss outperformed both the analyst's forecast of a -NZ$375m loss and the company's guidance range of a -NZ$340m to -NZ$390m loss.

The business was impacted by elevated second-half fuel prices, ongoing engine issues, and elevated aircraft maintenance costs throughout the period.

Normalising for these factors, the broker estimates underlying profitability stood at approximately NZ$80m for FY26.

The analyst views the airline as likely remaining a difficult investment proposition for some time due to poor visibility.