Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 22-05-26

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This story features BRAMBLES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 18 to Friday May 22, 2026
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.09%; Hold 27.27%; Sell 6.64%

For the week ending Friday, May 22, 2026, FNArena recorded eight upgrades and nine downgrades from seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

The world’s largest pallet pool operator Brambles received two rating downgrades, as well as one upgrade, after management lowered earnings growth expectations due to capacity constraints in pallet repair operations.

The share price fell by around -20% on the day of the announcement.

The following article https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/21/brambles-cost-recovery-challenge/ details measures undertaken by management to rectify the problem and summarises views on the outlook for Brambles.

For the fifth consecutive week, falls in average target prices (valuations) materially outweigh increases, while changes to average earnings forecasts were broadly balanced.

Online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster suffered the largest fall (-35%) in average target as Morgan Stanley and Bell Potter updated their forecasts after a trading update in the prior week which missed consensus forecasts, with revenue and earnings tracking toward the lower end of guidance.

Morgan Stanley cut its target by -67% to $8.00 due to valuation de-rating and weaker forecasts, though the broker retained an Overweight rating, citing the intact asset-light business model, expanding market position and long-term growth opportunity.

Similarly, Bell Potter found a positive in the form of margin improvement initiatives implemented since March, which appear to be supporting margins.

While it’s felt the company can still achieve materially higher earnings through improved operating efficiency, this broker slashed its target to $7.00 from $13.00 due to valuation multiple compression.

Brambles and automotive aftermarket parts and services company Bapcor are next with falls in average targets of -17% and -15%, respectively.

As explained in last week’s article, management at Bapcor yet again downgraded FY26 earnings guidance, this time blaming challenging trading conditions arising from higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict.

While some operational initiatives are gaining traction and sales trends improved modestly through February to April, Morgans highlighted execution continues to be overshadowed by external headwinds.

Given ongoing earnings volatility, delayed deleveraging and limited visibility, Morgans lowered its target by -20c to 41c.

Also citing significant operating deleverage, Morgan Stanley reduced its target price by around -40% to 25c.

Elders, Nick Scali and Beacon Lighting received cuts to average targets of respectively -15%, -14% and -11%.

Australian agribusiness company Elders released interim results showing an unexpectedly strong rise in costs. For a more detailed summary of broker views see the commentary section of FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/22/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-22-05-2026/

For furniture retailer Nick Scali, here Citi assumed like-for-like sales will contract by -2% in FY27 due to higher interest rates and a relatively adverse Federal Budget for housing retailers. Citi reduced its target by -26% to $14.15.

A&NZ gross margin expansion in FY27 is still anticipated, albeit at a slower rate, with currency likely to provide a tailwind.

Management has traditionally avoided discounting during periods of softer demand, the broker noted.

Macquarie also lowered its EPS forecasts and assumed a lower valuation multiple, resulting in a new target of $15.30, down from $21.60.

The Nick Scali share price has fallen to $13.38 from over $23.00 prior to interim results in February.

The analyst at Macquarie is maintaining the faith with an Outperform rating, noting the share price does not reflect a net cash balance sheet (forecast to reach $127m in FY26) which provides insulation from macroeconomic pressures. Longer-term UK upside was also highlighted.

Citi reduced its target price for Beacon Lighting by -39% to $1.68 with EPS estimates for FY26 lowered by -2% due to higher cost of doing business.

The prior 30% premium in valuation has been replaced with a discount of -30% to reflect increasing pressures for the Australian housing sector post interest rate rises and the Federal Budget.

Along with negative adjustments to target price, Bapcor, Temple & Webster and Elders also appear in the week’s list for negative change to average earnings forecasts.

Iluka Resources is second on this list after Ord Minnett adjusted its estimates for higher diesel prices. The investment case is seen as shifting toward rare earths, with mineral sands attracting limited enthusiasm.

Offtake deals are expected from mid-year to support rare earth news flow, though pricing may disappoint, the broker cautioned.

Ord Minnett upgraded its rating to Buy from Hold and raised the target to $9.00 from $8.00. Mineral sands net debt is expected to stabilise this year, with any capital raising likely deferred until next year.

Due to research updates by Morgans, uranium exposures NexGen Energy and Paladin Energy appear first and fifth on the table for falls in average earnings forecasts, while initiation of coverage by the broker places Boss Energy atop the table for positive change.

Coverage was initiated on NexGen with a Buy rating and $20.80 target. The company is highlighted as one of the most leveraged exposures to the uranium cycle through the Rook I project in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, which is entering the construction phase. First production is targeted for 2031.

The project sits at the bottom quartile of the global cost curve in the world’s premier uranium jurisdiction.

Underpinning Morgans’ Buy thesis are two decades of suppressed uranium prices hollowing out supply, leaving the industry short of capital and spare capacity just as reactor demand begins to accelerate.

These forces are considered more difficult to reverse in the current cycle amid a structural supply deficit and geopolitical reshaping of nuclear fuel supply chains. China has 38 reactors under construction, while the US is targeting 400GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.

Paladin is seen offering both near-term production and a world-class development asset, with the Langer Heinrich in Namibia ramping towards nameplate capacity of 6mlb per annum.

As was the case for the broker’s NexGen initiation, reinstatement of research coverage with new earnings forecasts for Buy-rated Paladin (target of $13.05) had the effect of lowering the company’s average earnings forecast in the FNArena database.

While Boss Energy has withdrawn from an enhanced feasibility study for its Honeymoon project in South Australia, the broker points to substantial uranium inventory and one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector.

Morgans last week initiated research coverage on Boss with an Accumulate rating and $1.55 target.

Coming third and fourth on the table for positive change to average targets are global testing, inspection and certification company ALS Ltd and Capstone Copper with rises of 19% and 16%, respectively.

Earnings ‘beats’ for both companies are discussed in the Results Monitor.

Karoon Energy received a 25% boost to its average earnings forecast. Eagle-eyed readers will also have noticed the appearance of Beach Energy, Woodside Energy and Santos further down the table.

Last week, Citi raised its oil price outlook, arguing the market is underestimating both the likely duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of further escalation.

Revised forecasts lifted 2026/2027 oil price projections by 8% and 7%, driving double-digit earnings upgrades across the broker’s upstream oil and gas coverage.

Citi’s base case assumes a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is reached in the third quarter, allowing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through end-2026.

Commentary also pointed to meaningful upside risk to spot gas prices given Europe’s low inventory starting point during the restocking cycle.

More in-depth stories on James Hardie Industries, TechnologyOne and Gentrack Group are set to be published on the FNArena website early this week.

In the meantime, an explanation for ‘in-line’ reporting by James Hardie and TechOne, along with a ‘miss’ by Gentrack are available in the Monitor.

https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.09%, with Sell ratings at just 6.64%, leaving 27.27% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

UBS upgraded Brambles to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $23.80, down from $25.40.

The -20% pullback in the shares is seen as overdone and creating “compelling” valuation support.

See also BXB downgrade.

DOCTOR CARE ANYWHERE GROUP PLC ((DOC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0

The acquisition of MedicSpot UK marks a pivotal moment for Doctor Care Anywhere in Bell Potter’s opinion, as it diversifies the business and provides the ability to serve a broader market for corporate health care.

The broker points out the transaction was for assets only rather than the corporate structure. Major assets include the website and the estimated 2500 customers ordering GLP-1 weight loss products each month.

Bell Potter believes the acquisition for just GBP850,000 represents “deep value” and raises the target to $0.24 from $0.20. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0

UBS observes copper is currently at the “centre of the mining cycle” owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

Evolution Mining, which has potential to lift its copper exposure to 30% from 20% from a possible expansion of Northparkes, is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with the target rising to $14.00 from $13.80.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Ord Minnett adjusts mineral sands estimates, building in higher diesel prices for the rest of the year.

Iluka Resources is moving, in terms of the investment case, to rare earths from mineral sands, with the latter described by Ord Minnett as a sector with few enthusiasts.

The broker also expects the company will be announcing offtake deals from mid-year to keep the rare earth news flow “active”. There may be a risk that offtake prices disappoint so Ord Minnett is not “overly aggressive”.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $9 from $8. The broker expects the mineral sand net debt will stabilise this year and grow next year, but any capital raising is likely to be delayed into next year.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ora Banda Mining’s price target has increased to $1.60 (from $1.40) at UBS. The broker has also upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

QUALITAS LIMITED ((QAL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Morgans raises its target for Qualitas by 90c to $3.50 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate. This follows a third quarter update, changes to residential property investment rules in the Federal Budget and the sale of an additional stake in Metrics Credit.

The broker believes concerns around private credit remain overdone for higher-quality managers. It’s noted Qualitas benefits from predominantly institutional capital, limited redemption risk and a loan book heavily weighted to senior residential debt.

Commentary also highlights strong growth in fee-earning funds under management and record deployment levels. Valuation support is seen as relatively attractive following recent transactions in comparable private credit managers.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1

UBS observes copper is currently at the “centre of the mining cycle” owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

Sandfire Resources is considered a consistent, reliable mid-tier producer and is upgraded to Neutral from Sell with the target lifted to $20.00 from $16.75.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

First half results from TechnologyOne were largely in line with expectations, and Morgans believes the business enters the strong half well-positioned to achieve the upper end of its FY26 guidance. Annual recurring revenue of $598m was up 17%.

Churn was low, with management signalling no material customer losses. FY26 targeted revenue growth is 16%-18% and pre-tax profit growth 18%-20%.

Morgans upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $32.30 from $31.20, noting the company has consistently delivered market-leading revenue and revenue retention rates.

Downgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi downgrades its rating for A2M to Sell from Neutral, citing downside risk from ongoing supply challenges, largely outside management’s control.

These issues come at a difficult time, the analyst points out, with industry volumes under pressure following a weaker 2025 birth rate, with impacts potentially extending into FY27.

While supportive of the company’s strategy and business model, Citi feels the FY26 PE multiple of 28x leaves limited room for error.

The broker sets a $5.85 target price, down from $8.40, and adopts a more cautious stance.

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Ord Minnett views an increasing downside risk to earnings for AGL Energy as the electricity market transition evolves less favourably compared with prior expectations.

Battery capacity in the National Electricity Market is being deployed materially faster than required in the absence of corresponding coal-fired retirement.

The excess flexibility is suppressing price volatility and reducing the earnings potential for batteries and other flexible generation assets such as gas peakers and hydro.

As a result, the broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and reduces the target to $11.75 from $13.25. Earnings estimates are reduced by -10% for FY27 and -17% for FY28.

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgan Stanley continues to like the long-term structural growth story and market position of Brambles. The company has cut FY26 guidance after repair “bottlenecks” emerged across parts of its US network which drove higher supply chain costs and limited pallet availability.

Profit growth guidance has been reduced to 3-5%, reflecting an estimated -US$60m earnings hit. Morgan Stanley reduces FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by -8% and -5%, respectively.

As the risk/reward now appears more balanced and the stock is unlikely to re-rate until there is greater clarity on the issues, the broker downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is lowered to $19 from $28. Industry view is In-Line.

Morgans has downgraded Brambles to Hold from Accumulate and lowered the target to $18.70 from $25.50 post management’s “disappointing” trading update, which included a profit warning.

Management lowered FY26 constant currency revenue growth guidance to 2%-3% versus 3%-4% previously with underlying earnings (EBIT) growth now expected at 3%-5% from 8%-11% previously.

The downgrade reflects pallet repair constraints in parts of the US relating to subcontractor turnover at service centres, labour shortages and higher supply chain costs.

Underlying earnings (EBIT) forecasts are lowered by -4% for FY26 and -5% for FY27.

See also BXB upgrade.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Citi downgrades its rating for Insurance Australia Group to Neutral from Buy after a 12% share price rally over the past fortnight leaves the stock trading close to the broker’s $8.50 target price.

While the broker acknowledges potential upside to gross written premium growth and capital returns, it has not yet incorporated management’s high single-digit EPS growth targets into forecasts.

The analyst also warns Greensill-related litigation risk may increasingly return to investor focus following significant reserve increases by Tokio Marine and legal charges recognised by Marsh.

Although management continues to expect no net financial exposure, Citi believes ongoing court proceedings could generate additional uncertainty and headline risk over coming months.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Ord Minnett views an increasing downside risk to earnings for Origin Energy as the electricity market transition evolves less favourably compared with prior expectations.

Battery capacity in the National Electricity Market is being deployed materially faster than required in the absence of corresponding coal-fired retirement.

The excess flexibility is suppressing price volatility and reducing the earnings potential for batteries and other flexible generation assets such as gas peakers and hydro.

As a result the broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and reduces the target to $10.40 from $11.00. Earnings estimates are reduced by -21% for FY27 and -24% for FY28.

QPM ENERGY LIMITED ((QPM)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Bell Potter downgrades QPM Energy to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy with a lower target of $0.03 from $0.06 post what was viewed as another “soft” quarterly update.

Gas supply for the March quarter came in at 2.2PJ versus the forecast of 2.4PJ with electricity dispatches falling short of expectations at 34.5GWh, versus estimate of 36.7GWh.

Average realised price was also lower than anticipated with sales in line. The analyst notes the Isaac Power station is moving towards a final investment decision.

Downward pricing pressure on electricity prices is expected to moderate as the market readjusts over time.

SPC GLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SPG)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

SPC Global has announced a $100m underwritten capital raising at $0.10 a share with $75m dedicated to directly reducing the debt burden. Management has also reconfirmed FY26 guidance for normalised EBITDA of $38m.

Ord Minnett notes, while solving the debt issue, the extent of the capital raising brings into question some of its previous assumptions for cash flow and sales.

While the turnaround may have momentum, other issues include inventory, stability of the board, sales growth and product safety.

The broker has become more cautious and downgrades to Hold from Buy, lowering the target to $0.17 from $0.75 post the capital raising.

TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED ((TLS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Macquarie downgrades Telstra Group to Neutral from Outperform with a slightly lower target price of $5.57 from $5.64.

The analyst believes it is harder to “justify” the defensive premium against a backdrop of accelerating inflation/growth, the SaaS sell-off and slower subscriber in operation (SIO) meaning the telco needs to lean more into cost cutting.

Telstra raised NBN plan prices by around 3.6% or $2.40 per month, broadly offsetting higher nbnCo wholesale charges from July 2026. The ACMA also finalised spectrum renewal pricing, with total industry costs slightly below prior estimates and Telstra guidance.

Post the de-rating of tech stocks, the broker prefers tech over defensive telcos and views the defensive premium as vulnerable against a rising interest rate environment.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower but the analyst believes ongoing portfolio management and cost reduction efforts leave scope for future capital management initiatives.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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