Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 21, 2024

This story features A2B AUSTRALIA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2B

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2B   ARF   ASK   BLX   CBA   COF   CPU   CQR   DHG   EVN   EVT   FBU   HAS   HDN   IEL   IPL   MFG   MGH   NEU (2)   NWH   PGH   SFX   SVW   TWE   VCX   WDS   WES   WOR  

A2B    A2B AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.42

Petra Capital rates ((A2B)) as Buy (1) –

Strong interim results by A2B Australia are of little consequence, suggests Petra Capital, given the Board has unanimously recommended the Scheme of Arrangement with ComfortDelGro Corporation Australia.

This private company is set to acquire all of the remaining shares in A2B Australia it doesn’t already own, for $1.45/share.

The broker is ambivalent as to whether investors sell shares on market at the present time, or wait for the scheme to be implemented in mid-April. Petra Capital's $1.45 target aligns with the $1.45 offer price. Sell.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.035
If A2B meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 43.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.46

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Buy (1) –

Arena REIT displayed above-average growth in the 1H for funds from operations (FFO) and dividends, according to Jarden, despite rising interest rates and a slowdown in development activity.

The analysts suggest FY24 guidance could prove conservative, and this financial year could well be the nadir for EPS/DPU growth, as interest rates stabilise. Strong structural demand is also expected to accelerate inorganic growth.

The broker believes management is taking a realistic view on asset values and a disciplined approach to costs. The Overweight rating and $4.10 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.64
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.44.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.40.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASK    ABACUS STORAGE KING

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.22

Moelis rates ((ASK)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

ABACUS STORAGE KING's December-half result met Moelis's forecasts and management reaffirmed dividend and payout-ratio guidance (a 5% yield), confirming the resilience of the storage market, says the broker.

While RevPAM posted respectable growth (albeit slower), this was overshadowed by the rolling off of hedges, dampening EPS.

The company invested $77m into acquisitions in the half and the broker observes gearing was comfortable, leaving room for $250m in develpments or acquisitions. Moelis expects the company's development pipeline should propel growth.

While the company is trading at a -19% discount to net tangible assets, the broker also observes it is under-earning given its operating cost base and management fees. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price is $1.34. 

This report was published on February 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.12
If ASK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.78

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

A continuation of momentum saw Beacon Lighting deliver a strong first half, with Jarden noting sales were up for the period despite a challenging environment. Trends are continuing into the second half to date.

As per the broker, gross margin retention above 68% remains a key uncertainty, as lower margin businesses expand, but Jarden expects the company can continue to manage mix well.

The broker expects topline growth to continue amid improving housing sentiment.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.20.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.14.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $116.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

First half cash earnings were marginally below estimates while Goldman Sachs assesses the quality of CommBank's result was good. A higher-than-expected bad debt charge was entirely due to the broker's prior expectations for provision releases.

The bank's relative margin resilience was evident and attributed to effective management of the volume versus margin trade-off, the broker adds.

This does not justify the premium at which the stock is currently trading compared with peers and Goldman Sachs retains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $81.98 from $82.37.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $81.98 Current Price is $116.95 Difference: minus $34.97 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -21.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 569.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 580.9, implying annual growth of -3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 455.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 550.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 572.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 461.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.21

Moelis rates ((COF)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Office REIT's weaker December-half result met Moelis's forecasts and management reaffirmed EPS and dividend guidance.

The broker observes a strong leasing performance thanks in part to the renewal of the ATO's Northbridge tenancy in Perth (struck on a negative rent reversion of 20% to 25%).

Net tangible assets per unit fell to $1.98 from $2.20 and gearing rose to 40.4% from 38.4% and management advised more asset sales were in the offing. 

Vacancies rose nearly one percentage point, reducing the near-term overhang, observes the broker with 16% of income still set for expiry in the next 18 months in what is shaping up as a tough period.

Buy rating retained, the broker believing the share price is low enough (-37% below net tangible assets) to compensate waiting for two years.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $1.97 from $1.98.

This report was published on February 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.97 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.76
If COF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $26.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((CPU)) as Buy (1) –

In the wake of the first half result from Computershare, Goldman Sachs envisages an improving outlook for cyclical revenue.

The results were largely in line with expectations while management has signalled stronger corporate actions are likely to drive more transaction and event-based revenue in issuer services, although some of this may not be evident until FY25.

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $28 from $27.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.03 Difference: $1.97
If CPU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 121.40 cents and EPS of 176.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 125.95 cents and EPS of 174.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.8, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.72

Moelis rates ((CQR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT reported first half earnings per unit of 13.5 cents and dividends per unit of 12.3 cents, alongside reiterating full tear guidance for earnings per unit of 27.4 cents with a 90-95% payout ratio.

Moelis believes the REIT is continuing to deliver a strong operating performance. While the portfolio continues to benefit from tailwinds driving relatively strong top line growth, but earnings headwinds continue to prevent a positive earnings trajectory.

In the medium-term, the broker expects the earnings line to continue to track sideways.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $3.98 from $4.02.

This report was published on February 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.98 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.26
If CQR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 324.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.26

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

First half earnings from Domain Holdings Australia were broadly in line with estimates and Goldman Sachs notes listing trends are improving into the second half. The first half controllable yield of 15% was driven by price increases and strong depth/Platinum Edge uptake.

The broker suggests maintaining a disciplined cost approach while property markets are buoyant is a trade-off that could limit the company's ability to push prices over the medium term. Neutral maintained. Target is $3.60.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.34
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 95.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Evolution Mining's first half underlying earnings (EBITDA) were ahead of Goldman Sachs' estimates. The broker suspects net debt and gearing have likely peaked ahead of a significant deleveraging.

FY24 guidance is unchanged although production is still expected at the bottom end of the range of 750-789,000 ounces.

The company has confirmed it will not target material additions to the portfolio until reliability milestones are achieved. Goldman Sachs considers the valuation and free cash flow yield supportive versus large peers and retains a Buy rating with a $3.70 target.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.67
If EVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 162.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $11.18

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Overweight (2) –

Commenting upon weaker-than-expected 1H results for EVT Ltd, Jarden points out the Hotels division is the core value driver and it continues to perform strongly (in line with consensus) and has potential for long-term growth.

Management expects a record second half for Hotels.

Earnings (EBITDA) for Cinemas missed the consensus forecast by -17%, but the analysts note strong growth in the period highlights the long-term opportunity.

Thredbo, while considered a quality oligopoly by Jarden, also missed the consensus forecast by -19%, on both a poor snow season and lift closures due to high winds, which impacted key mountain biking days.

The Overweight rating is retained while the target is decreased to $11.31 from $12.55.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $11.31 Current Price is $11.18 Difference: $0.13
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.07.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.39.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs downgrades to Neutral from Buy as the first half EBIT of NZ$264m from Fletcher Building was down -27% and below forecasts. This miss at the EBIT line came despite slightly better-than-expected revenue and amid significant margin contraction.

Guidance for FY24 underlying EBIT of NZ$540-640m is also well below expectations and points to a deeper-than-expected trough, the broker asserts. Target is reduced to $3.70 from $4.65.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.37
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 37.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.53 cents and EPS of 30.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Hastings Technology Metals has executed an agreement with a Chinese company to allow concentrate from the Yangibana project to be toll treated in China to produce separated REO's. Canaccord Genuity considers this arrangement a positive outcome.

The binding offtake agreement is with Baotao Sky Rock New Material Co, and covers 10ktpa of concentrate (approximately one third of production) for seven years plus an option to extend for a further five years should Hastings elect.

The new arrangement will create exposure to REO prices for Hastings, less a capped multi-stage toll treatment fee, explains the broker.

The Speculative Buy rating and $2.50 target are maintained.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $1.83
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 273% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 134.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 134.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.23

Moelis rates ((HDN)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

An in line first half result from HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, according to Moelis, with the company reporting funds from operations per share of 4.3 cents.

The period saw HomeCo Daily Needs REIT divest Midland and Epping for $145m, and contract four more assets at a cost of $157m. The company targets a further $70m in development capital expenditure over the second half, currently retaining its target return on invested capital of 7%.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price of $1.35 is retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.12
If HDN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 76.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $19.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses, in an environment of softer market volumes, IDP Education can provide genuine students from diverse sources with a quality offering and this should mean it is well-placed to gain market share.

The first half result validates this theory, the broker asserts, with investments in technology such as Fast Lane and back-end CRM systems supporting the company's position.

Estimates for volumes are trimmed slightly for FY24-26 to largely reflect the visa uncertainty in Canada. Buy rating maintained. Target is lowered to $26.60 from $27.60.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $19.51 Difference: $7.09
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.78, suggesting upside of 27.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL    INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.67

Jarden rates ((IPL)) as Neutral (3) –

While fertilser production issues at Phosphate Hill continue to weigh, and Incitec Pivot has downgraded FY24 production guidance by -50kt as a result, Jarden notes the diammonium phosphate (DAP) price remains resilient.

In a FY24 business update, management attributed this third-consecutive guidance downgrade to the interruption caused by Cyclone Kirrily to the Mt Isa to Townsville rail line. This route is used to supply sulphuric acid to Phopshate Hill.

Neutral rating and $2.70 target price retained.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.03
If IPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of -26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $8.86

Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden is encouraged by slowing net outflows for Magellan Financial (to -$4.7bn in the 1H from -$10.2bn in the 2H of FY23) as the relative performance of the group's flagship fund has improved over the past 12 months.

For the coming year, the broker sees prospects for a stabilisation of profits within the key Funds Management division, aided by the company's target for flat costs into FY25.

Management will deploy $311m of surplus capital towards M&A (boutique asset managers) rather than capital management, in an attempt to boost the overall medium-term performance track record against benchmarks.

The broker's target rises to $8.40 from $7.80. Neutral.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 58.70 cents and EPS of 92.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.5, implying annual growth of -10.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 46.10 cents and EPS of 74.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of -23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.13

Moelis rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

An in line result from Maas Group in the first half, according to Moelis, including underlying earnings of $97.1m and underlying net profits of $38.5m. 

The construction materials and real estate segments both performed better than expected, but were partiallly offset by weaker performances from civil constructin and hire.

The broker was encouraged by the reaffirmed full year guidance, which suggests 20% earnings growth over the year, as well as the strong cash conversion focus and continued growth.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.65 from $3.81.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.52
If MGH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $20.54

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the impact of recent negative statements by US-based Culper Research is already factored into consensus market share assumptions for Neuren Pharmaceuticals.

The comments concerned Neuren Pharmaceuticals' licence and distribution partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals.

Concerns were raised around the uptake of Neuren's Daybue product, compliance and reimbursement, with Culper Research concluding consensus sales forecasts are overly optimistic, explains the broker.

In the analyst's view, the report fails to take a balanced approach to showing results from the physicians who do view the drug positively.

The $31 target and Buy recommendation are unchanged.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $20.54 Difference: $10.46
If NEU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NEU)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons dismisses market concerns that resulted from a short seller report targeting Neuren Pharmaceuticals' exclusive trofinetide licensee, Acadia Pharmaceuticals.

The broker stands by its forecasts and notes the company's response to an "unwarranted" ASX trading halt reiterated the current guidance from Acadia.

Wilsons considers the event an opportunity for investors to take advantage of an attractive entry point and retains an Overweight rating with a $27.23 target.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $27.23 Current Price is $20.54 Difference: $6.69
If NEU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 120.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.83

Jarden rates ((NWH)) as Overweight (2) –

NRW Holdings' core adjusted profit in the 1H slightly beat the consensus forecast, while a larger 4% beat for operating earnings is at odds with management's unchanged FY24 earnings guidance of $175-185m, suggests Jarden.

The company now expects to deliver towards the top end of this range, which the broker considers conservative, as the company insists there is no cost build required in the 2H to deliver secured FY25 revenue.

The analysts expect the Mining and Minerals, Energy & Technologies (MET) division will drive a 2H margin improvement.

Overweight rating retained. Target is increased to $2.95 from $2.90.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.12
If NWH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 25.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 41.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH    PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $0.86

Jarden rates ((PGH)) as Overweight (2) –

First half results for Pact Group had been largely pre-announced, and, hence, largely fell within Jarden's expectations. FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance also aligned with the consensus forecast.

While the broker's $1.30 target price and Overweight rating are retained, the FY24 EPS forecast was reduced by -5% to reflect Jarden's view interest rates will remain higher for longer.

There were some positive earnings forecast revisions by the analysts in FY25 and FY26 based on ongoing improvements for the Contract Manufacturing division.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.435
If PGH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.41.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFX    SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.52

Petra Capital rates ((SFX)) as Buy (1) –

Following first production at the Thunderbird Mineral Sands operation, the analyst at Petra Capital visited the site in Broome, and reports (perhaps from poolside) operations are continuing to ramp-up.

The broker believes the market appears to be pricing in a strong chance of severe commissioning issues, and suggests the stock price will re-rate materially when nameplate production is met in the 2H of 2024.

The analyst anticipates mining rates at 45% of nameplate in the March quarter, growing to 70% in the June quarter. 

Petra Capital's forecasts, target of $1.26 and Buy rating are all maintained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.74
If SFX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVW    SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $40.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((SVW)) as Buy (1) –

Seven Group's first half earnings and revenue beat estimates with Goldman Sachs noting WesTrac outperformed on product sales and delivered a "solid" 11.4% margin.

Guidance, which was upgraded, appears conservative to the broker. WesTrac capital sales continue to benefit from strong mining activity while Coates' time utilisation declined to 60.2% and margins expanded.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $42.10 from $32.50.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $40.52 Difference: $1.58
If SVW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.23, suggesting downside of -0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.2, implying annual growth of 37.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 275.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.9, implying annual growth of 17.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $11.74

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Overweight (2) –

In a pretty poor market for wine, Jarden considers Treasury Wine Estates produced a good 1H result with earnings (EBITS) in line with forecast.

Due to weaker Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) sales in Asia, management now expects mid to-high, as opposed to the former (high-single-digit) earnings growth guidance for FY24.

The broker believes there is $3.00 not allowed for in the company's current share price, due to the potential easing of Chinese tariffs (March decision) which should drive upgrades in the 2H and beyond.

The target rises to $12.90 from $12.30. The Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $11.74 Difference: $1.16
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 11.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 57.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 50.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 71.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX    VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.99

Jarden rates ((VCX)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes leasing momentum for Vicinity Centres in the 1H was better-than-feared and sees upside potential to FY24 guidance and consensus expectations.

The broker also believes developments have potential to deliver attractive medium-term growth.

The analysts feel the market will be more comfortable giving extra credit to management for the medium-term pipeline, once returns are proven on the Chadstone and Chatswood Chase developments, and capital partners are brought in.

The $2.40 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.415
If VCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 129.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $30.19

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Underweight (4) –

Ahead of FY23 results on February 27, management at Woodside Energy released its 2023 reserves report, while financial line item guidance was slightly better than consensus at the midpoint, notes Jarden.

The broker highlights a downgrade for the Shenzi oil field reserves in the Gulf of Mexico, offset by upgrades at Pluto and in Trinidad.

Jarden leaves the target price at $29 with an Underweight rating. The broker's forecast for the final dividend falls to 47cps from 51cps.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.19 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.82, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 192.72 cents and EPS of 242.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 176.02 cents and EPS of 221.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.9, implying annual growth of -11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $63.01

Jarden rates ((WES)) as Neutral (3) –

A strong first half result from Wesfarmers, with earnings increasing 2% year-on-year. As per Jarden, in a theme that has emerged across first half retail results, cost of doing business and gross margins both surprised positively. 

Kmart remained a standout, and it was suggested that current margins from the brand can be maintained in the medium-term, underpinned by private label Anko accounting for 85% of sales.

Jarden's earnings per share forecasts increase between 7-20% through to FY26, partly on an expected 25-30% earnings increase expected from Kmart in the coming financial year.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $58.60 from $48.60.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $58.60 Current Price is $63.01 Difference: minus $4.41 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 201.00 cents and EPS of 230.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.3, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 263.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.2, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR    WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $15.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs updates estimates to factor in interest-rate trends, lowering FY24-26 underlying net profit assumptions for Worley by -2-3%.

The broker believes the business is well-positioned to play a role in enabling the transition to a more sustainable energy mix over the long-term and expects this area will gain increased attention from investors as the pandemic-related impacts fade.

Neutral retained. Target edges down to $17.60 from $17.70.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $15.95 Difference: $1.65
If WOR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.6, implying annual growth of 1059.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of 15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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