The Monday Report – 21 July 2025

This story features REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RRL

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

With markets trading at all time highs, ongoing US quarterly earnings and the looming August 1 tariff deadline will remain in focus. 

ASX200 futures are pointing to a weaker start, after new record highs were set last week.

Thus far, the ASX200 has climbed 2.50 in July.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8688.00	– 49.00	– 0.56%
S&P ASX 200	8757.20	+ 118.20	1.37%
S&P500	6296.79	– 0.57	– 0.01%
Nasdaq Comp	20895.66	+ 10.01	0.05%
DJIA	44342.19	– 142.30	– 0.32%
S&P500 VIX	16.41	– 0.11	– 0.67%
US 10-year yield	4.43	– 0.03	– 0.69%
USD Index	98.20	– 0.16	– 0.16%
FTSE100	8992.12	+ 19.48	0.22%
DAX30	24289.51	– 81.42	– 0.33%

Good Morning.

Tony Sycamore IG: Markets in review

The ASX200 finished 177 points (2.06%) higher last week at 8757. Its surge to fresh record highs was supported by a weak jobs report, which, according to popular opinion, all but guarantees an RBA rate cut next month, on top of some technical buying as the index steamrolled through its previous record highs, and a healthy dose of July’s bullish seasonality.

The best-performing sectors last week were IT, up 5.19%, Health Care up 4.8%, Real Estate up 2.84%, and Energy rose 2.32%. Consumer Staples gained 0.9%, Materials up 1.31%, Utilities up 1.38%, and Consumer Discretionary lifted 1.53% and were the sectors that relatively under performed.

The key events on this week’s local data calendar are Tuesday’s RBA meeting minutes and a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. After last week’s soft labour force data, the minutes will be viewed as slightly outdated, putting the focus squarely on comments from the RBA Governor, who will be speaking at the Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney.

The Australian interest rate market starts the week almost fully priced for a -25bp rate cut from the RBA for the 12th of August, with a cumulative -65bp of RBA rate cuts priced by year-end.

US equity markets closed lower on Friday, weighed down by a Financial Times report that President Trump is calling for a minimum 15-20% tariff on imports from the European Union, suggesting a harder stance is being taken. For the week, the Nasdaq100 gained 1.25%, the S&P 500 added 0.59%, and the Dow Jones fell -29 points (-0.07%). 

If President Trump’s tariffs announced in recent weeks come into effect, they will see the average US tariff rate rise to around 20-22% from approximately 14-15%. This would inevitably be a hit to growth and consumer and business confidence. Offsetting these concerns is the current August 1 deadline could be extended again, and additional trade deals may be announced.

In economic news on Friday night, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 61.8 in July 2025, the highest in five months, compared to 60.7 in June. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since February. 

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller continues to fight the dovish fight as he again pressed for a rate cut later this month, citing a slowdown in private sector hiring. However, apart from Bowman, he appears to be outnumbered by those led by Fed Chair Powell, who remain firmly in wait-and-see mode. 

On a more positive note, reports emerged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged President Trump not to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Multiple sources indicated Bessent cautioned Trump about the potential economic, political, and legal consequences, stressing such a move could destabilize financial markets.

Gerard Minack on the Australian neutral rate

Below is a link to an interesting interview with Gerard Minack who offers a different perspective on Australia’s neutral rate of interest, which will no doubt spark some debate for a few readers on the more hawkish side.

Minack runs his own private consultancy nowadays (Minack Advisors) but previously served as Head of Global Developed Markets & Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley and at ABN Amro Australia and BZW Barclays Australia before that.

The piece starts at 1:21:45 on the youtube interview: (https://youtu.be/MOH3gHSqlgc?si=Zx5Pv_i4znc6C3mt)

Chris Weston, Pepperstone: New all-time highs seen in select DM equity indices 

In the old school world of TradFi, we see new all-time highs seen in the ASX200, FTSE100, S&P500 and NAS100, with bullish breakouts or strong momentum moves seen in the HK50, China H-Shares and Kospi. 

The Russell 2k (US2000) shows consolidation in the daily technical set-up, but the US small-cap index falls on the radar for a possible upside break too, and alerts can be set for a daily close above 2280, and a possible continuation of the primary bull trend. 

Volatility continues to get crushed, with SPX500 30-day realised vol at a meagre 9.29% and into a new year-to-date low, with heavyweights like Microsoft realising on just an 11% vol. The steady grind higher in the price action for US equity indices and in many of the mega-cap single stock names and the low close-to-close daily price changes keeps implied vol pinned, with the VIX unable to break above 17%. 

Goldilocks still dominates the backdrop for equity risk. Granted, all is not perfect in risk markets, with the higher 1 Aug tariff date looming, and Fed independence called into question; however, equity players still see an early dismissal of Jay Powell as Fed chair or his resignation as a low probability and have subsequently bought any weakness that has come from either issue.

We have also seen some uplift in the market pricing for short-term US inflation expectations (US 1- & 2-year inflation swaps gained 14bp & 9bp respectively last week) and Treasury term premium gained 13bp w/w, and both require monitoring.

However, the low realised equity volatility pushes further capital off the sidelines, and this has been backed by a strong turnaround in US soft data economic releases. US interest rate swaps still price a Fed cut in September as more likely than not, with -45bp of cuts implied by year-end. 

US corporate earnings also come in more liberally from here, with Alphabet, Tesla and Intel the big names to report this week. Rich valuations and the recent run-up in price make the bar to please the market that much higher, but there seems to be little concern about holding equity risk or eve to hedge against an imminent drawdown at this stage.

The high-flying AI plays won’t report earnings this week, but Trump is expected to outline plans for AI prioritisation on Wednesday, so we’ll see if that has any bearing on Nvidia et al, at a time when traders have run these names higher on news that they will indeed be able to sell certain chips to China

Corporate news in Australia

-Regis Resources ((RRL)) is reviewing acquiring the 70% not owned in Tropicana gold project from its JV partner, AngloGold Ashanti.

-Hostplus and IFM Investors are looking at acquiring Igneo’s $350m stake in Adelaide Airport.

-BHP Group ((BHPP) has sold its stake in a US$1.4bn nickel project in Tanzania as it undertakes cost cutting measures.

-REA Group ((REA)) has been reported as asking real estate agents not to share the fees they pay to the listing’s platform while the ACCC investigation is ongoing.

-Aurizon Holdings’ ((AZJ)) CEO may face increasing pressure to step down due to a falling share price and -$2.39bn writedowns on the One Raul acquisition.

On the calendar today:

-NZ 2Q CPI

-JP Public Hol

-AIC MINES LIMITED ((A1M)) Qtr report

-AURELIA METALS LIMITED ((AMI)) earnings report

-AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Qtrly update

-BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Qtr report

-PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Qtr report

-SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Qtrly update

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	3358.30	+ 13.00	0.39%
Silver (oz)	38.46	+ 0.04	0.10%
Copper (lb)	5.60	+ 0.11	1.91%
Aluminium (lb)	1.20	+ 0.02	1.85%
Nickel (lb)	6.76	+ 0.05	0.67%
Zinc (lb)	1.28	+ 0.04	3.07%
West Texas Crude	66.05	– 1.57	– 2.32%
Brent Crude	69.28	– 0.34	– 0.49%
Iron Ore (t)	97.22	+ 0.04	0.04%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index	18 Jul 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Jul)	Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	8757.20	2.06%	2.52%	2.52%	7.33%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
BRG	Breville Group	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	UBS
CYL	Catalyst Metals	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
DRO	DroneShield	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Bell Potter
EDV	Endeavour Group	Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
EVN	Evolution Mining	Downgrade to Trim from Hold	Morgans
JLG	Johns Lyng	Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
MCE	Matrix Composites & Engineering	Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy	Bell Potter
PPM	Pepper Money	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
QAN	Qantas Airways	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	Citi
TNE	TechnologyOne	Downgrade to Sell from Hold	Bell Potter

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

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