Treasure Chest: Index Change Predictions Ahead Of The Coming Review

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By Greg Peel

For an explanation of the make-up of the Standard & Poor's Australian stock indices, how and why changes occur, and how it is possible to profit from predicting such changes, see Profit From Index Change Prediction.

Standard & Poor's and the ASX will conduct a quarterly review of index constituents and announce the upcoming changes on September 7. The last opportunity to trade cum-changes will be September 21.

Applying their own analysis, JP Morgan's quant analysts make predictions each quarter as to which stocks will leave and enter the indices. Please note the following represents only speculation based on such analysis and may or not prove accurate.

JP Morgan expects no changes to the ASX 20. For the ASX 50 there is a low chance of Campbell Bros ((CPB)) replacing Leighton Holdings ((LEI)).

For the ASX 100 there is a strong chance of Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) replacing JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and a low chance of Australian Infrastructure ((AIX)) replacing Arium ((ARI)).

For the ASX 200 there is a strong chance of Skilled Group ((SKE)) and Drillsearch Energy ((DLS)) replacing Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)).

For the ASX 300, eight additions and two deletions are expected. The ASX 300 has a lower liquidity hurdle than the other indices and stocks can be removed between reviews, which are held only every six months rather than quarterly. Hence the imbalance of ins and outs.

JP Morgan sees a high chance of Kangaroo Resources ((KRL)) and Tassal Group ((TGR)) being omitted and a high chance each of the following stocks being included: Skilled Group, Breville Group ((BRG)), Maverick Drilling & Exploration ((MAD)), Ainsworth Game Technology ((AGI)), Red Fork Energy ((RFE)), Challenger Infrastructure Fund ((CIF)), Blackthorn Resources ((BTR)) and Rialto Energy ((RIA)).
 

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