Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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This story features LENDLEASE GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

– 17 Downgrades; 10 Upgrades
– Miners dominate downgrades
– 2 x upgrades for VAH, 2 x downgrades for PRY
– ILU goes to Sell from Buy
 

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: BA-Merrill Lynch, CIMB, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 13 to Friday May 17

Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 17

Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 40.13%; Hold 43.40%; Sell 16.48%

Stockbrokers are switching the focus back towards more negative implications for discretionary retailers in Australia. Not only is the mild weather an obvious negative for apparel sales, with stories of bloated inventories swirling around the industry, but increased competition from overseas retailers and a weakening Aussie dollar are further adding to the sector’s subdued outlook.

Friday’s profit warning by Wesfarmers (Target) provided yet another catalyst for further research, with pending negative consequences for the sector overall. This scenario will largely unfold in the week ahead.

Meanwhile, downgrades in ratings for individual stocks remain largely focused on the mining and mining related sectors. But that was before the Aussie dollar tanked to well below USD-parity. A weaker AUD is poised to start an earnings upgrade cycle for Australian companies, including mining stocks.

Upgrades

Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 2/2/4

JP Morgan reported on the third quarter trading update, saying the result showed capital generation capacity despite the low growth environment, which was impressive. The broker also noted dividend forecasts have increased. FY13 earnings forecasts were largely unchanged, while FY14 and FY15 estimates were increased. JP Morgan also increased its estimated final dividend to $2.05, a 78% pay-out ratio courtesy of an extra $200m in capital retention given an absence in business credit growth. JP Morgan's ratings are sector, rather than market, specific.

K&S Corporation ((KSC)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/0/0

The broker has revised its assumptions slightly given weak industry feedback about the latter half of the current FY. Citing a tough rail and retail environment and a likely slowdown in WA, FY13-14 EPS forecasts were reduced by 5.4% and 9.7%, which pulled the price target lower. Yet despite the seemingly negative sounding revisions, the recommendation was upgraded, Macquarie noting a 20% decline in the share price from its recent peak, which more than accounts for the downside risk. The broker also likes the really low gearing, explaining it provides an important flexibility to increase returns. Lastly, the stock looks cheap to Macquarie compared to both peers and the market.

Nexus Energy ((NXS)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/2/1

The broker noted Nexus has agreed with Santos ((STO)) to amend the Longtom Gas Sales Agreement and while overall gas volumes may have fallen, Nexus managed to get a better price and also doesn't have to pay for a $65m infill well. There were no finite details, but Macquarie noted it is all a positive. With the Crux licence restructured, retention licences secured and Longtom metrics looking better, the recommendation was upgraded.

Oakton ((OKN)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by UBS. B/H/S: 1/3/0

The broker noted Oakton now expects 2H earnings to come in around 1H levels, which implies about a 12% cut to guidance. Lower than expected Federal Government spending did much of the damage. FY13-15 EPS estimates were cut by 10%, 7% and 9% to account for the new guidance and soft operating environment. Cost cutting is about the only way to support margins, so the off-shoring of work is likely to continue. Despite the soft outlook, the recommendation was upgraded, with the stock now too cheap to be passed up, said UBS.

Senex Energy ((OKN)) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 1/3/0

JP Morgan pointed to the share price roller coaster over the past several weeks, noting the stock now offers 24% potential upside to the price target, albeit in a generally undervalued sector. The company has announced the Hornet gas discovery, which is a positive, but the timeframe to realise value of the CSG in the Cooper Basin remains unclear, in the broker's opinion. Senex is JP Morgan's second preference among the minor players in the Cooper. The first pick is Drillsearch ((DLS)). The price target was raised to 87c from 86c.

Singapore Telecommunications ((SGT)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by CIMB. B/H/S: 3/3/0

The broker upgraded the recommendation and raised the target price to S$3.86 from S$3.28 after SingTel's FY13 results, to Neutral from Underperform. CIMB expects capex will remain elevated after FY14 as the company increases spending on LTE and 3G. SingTel is also allocating S$2 billion for digital investment over the next three years. Despite the spending, the pay-out ratio has been raised to 60-75% from 55-70% and the broker has also removed its discount for Optus on easing competition concerns.

Stockland ((SGP)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 2/3/2

There was little that the broker found surprising in the strategic review. What the broker did like was there was no mention of a capital raising, the dividend was maintained despite lower EPS, office asset sales are slowing, which is a positive at this point in the cycle and there was no earnings downgrade despite Boral’s ((BLD)) recent downgrade. On the downside, FY13 guidance was lowered by 2.5% to account for a restructure provision. With shares having underperformed the sector by 6.2% this year, the recommendation was upgraded.

Sydney Airports ((SYD)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by UBS. B/H/S: 2/2/2

UBS said the upgrade is based on valuation and the view that a value protecting resolution to the tax issues may be possible through corporatisation. The broker noted Sydney Airport has underperformed yield peers and the ASX200 by 15% since December 2012. UBS has also looked at the potential to restructure and sees $1.6 billion in trapped tax losses at the asset level that could, in the event of a restructure, protect unfranked distributions out to 2019. The price target was increased to $4.00 from $3.20.

Virgin Australia ((VAH)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan and to Buy from Hold by UBS. B/H/S: 5/2/0

UBS thought Virgin's recent profit downgrade was due mostly to temporary revenue issues and thus the resultant 17% drop in the share price was overdone. If anything, the broker thinks the outlook for the company has actually improved, with just two domestic players owning pretty much the whole market. So while forecasts may have been cut by 15%-20%, the recommendation was upgraded.

JP Morgan also responded to Virgin Australia's lower guidance for FY13. The broker found the inclusion of non-recurring items disappointing considering the proximity to February's guidance. Despite this, the new FY13 earnings estimates could herald the bottom and JP Morgan believes the foundations are now in place for profit growth to begin an upward trajectory. The depressed share price is now considered a buying opportunity.

Downgrades

Evolution Mining ((EVN)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 3/3/0

The likely strength of the USD and declining inflationary pressures sees the broker revise its gold price assumptions. Deutsche Bank average forecasts now stand at US$1,533/oz for this year, US$1,500/oz for next year and US$1,450/oz for 2015. This adds up to 6%, 17% and 25% reductions. The broker's long term price remains unchanged at US$1,300/oz. For Evolution this added up to a downgrade, lower forecasts and a lower price target.

Iluka Resources ((ILU)) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 4/2/2

The broker said it was feeling a bit optimistic in thinking a zircon restock is underway in China. It wasn’t all good news, as a TiO2 feedstock recovery is probably still six months down the track. In the meantime, the share price reached the broker's target and with little to push it higher any time soon, the recommendation was dropped.

Incitec Pivot ((IPL)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 2/6/0

The first half result was only slightly below Credit Suisse's expectations, but it seemed the market was pricing in a worse result. The broker reduced its target price to $3.25 from $3.50. Credit Suisse also flagged the fact Incitec Pivot is recycling cash away from price-taking fertiliser operations and towards better structured operations such as Moranbah, Pilbara emulsion and US ammonia. This should reduce earnings volatility and assist in a structural re-rating. Any mean reversion of the macro environment should also help. Upside should also come with more favourable foreign exchange. In the meantime, the rating has been downgraded.

Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 0/6/2

Insurance Australia has rallied hard and JP Morgan has reduced its recommendation, having noted shares are trading at 15 times FY14 earnings forecasts, which is pricing in all of the favourable trends. The broker foresees some threats to earnings from changes in NSW CTP and lower interest rates. Upside could come in the medium term from Asia, but JP Morgan did not see the market taking this on board anytime soon. The price target was increased to $5.80 from $5.65, reflecting the general increase in market valuations. The broker likes the business and believes at some point the Asian franchise will be reflected in the share price, but at the moment the stock remains susceptible to adverse news flow.

Lend Lease ((LLC)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 7/1/0

The broker noted Australian Non-Residential and Engineering work has fallen off sharply since late last year as have forward indicators. That has caused the broker to push out its recovery forecasts and revise its growth expectations. Forecasts for Non-residential and Engineering construction spending were cut and this saw FY13-15 net profit forecasts for Building Material stocks lowered by 0-5% and Contractors by 0-6%. This also added up to a downgrade and the price target dropping to $11.55 from $11.70.

Macquarie Group ((MQG)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 1/6/0

UBS downgraded its call given the recent price rally. The stock's 22% rally since the FY13 result has added about $3 billion to the market cap. Given there has been little change to consensus earnings forecasts, the broker thinks the market is valuing a sustained lift in future dividends at 18 times. UBS believes an 80% payout ratio is unsustainable for an investment bank with global growth ambitions and single digit return on equity.

Newcrest ((NCM)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 5/3/0

The likely strength of the USD and declining inflationary pressures saw the broker revise its gold price assumptions. Deutsche Bank average forecasts now stand at US$1,533/oz for this year, US$1,500/oz for next year and US$1,450/oz for 2015. This adds up to 6%, 17% and 25% reductions. The broker's long term price remains unchanged at US$1,300/oz. For Newcrest this added up to a downgrade as part of a sector review.

OZ Minerals ((OZL)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/4/0

After the visit to Prominent Hill and Carrapateena the broker was still of the view that the asset potential for OZ Minerals is yet to be defined. So, with operational issues in 2013 and no clear path to earnings growth, the stock is not a preferred copper play. Deutsche Bank expects the company to meet revised copper and gold production guidance in 2013 but is cautious and assumes grades will stay low.

Primary Healthcare ((PRY)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BA-Merrill Lynch and to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 2/5/1

Primary has raised earnings guidance for FY13 by 3% and the broker increased its forecasts accordingly. Despite this, the rating was downgraded given the run up in the share price. BA-Merrill Lynch also expects incremental earnings pressure into FY14 from dental revenue weakness and slower radiology growth. The price target was raised to $5.08 from $4.71. Despite earnings certainty the broker said it cannot see additional factors that would provide fresh upside from here.

Deutsche Bank was encouraged by the company's lift in FY13 earnings guidance, but remains wary about the exposure to the bulk-billing medical centre model, particularly if Medicare indexation is frozen, as has been suggested in the press. The price target was raised to $5.20 from $4.95 and seeing only limited upside to the target, the recommendation was cut.

REA Group ((REA)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/6/0

Macquarie reviewed the stock after the third quarter trading and downgraded the rating, saying that while REA remains an attractive business with a strong medium term growth outlook, the broker believes this has been largely captured by the share price. The issue for Macquarie is one of valuation, not outlook or quality of the business model. The target price was raised to $31.30 from $23.50.

Regis Resources ((REA)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/3/0

The likely strength of the USD and declining inflationary pressures saw the broker revise its gold price assumptions. Deutsche Bank average forecasts now stand at US$1,533/oz for this year, US$1,500/oz for next year and US$1,450/oz for 2015. This adds up to 6%, 17% and 25% reductions. The broker's long term price remained unchanged at US$1,300/oz. For Regis this all added up to a downgrade.

Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank.B/H/S: 2/2/0

The likely strength of the USD and declining inflationary pressures saw the broker revise its gold price assumptions. Deutsche Bank average forecasts now stand at US$1,533/oz for this year, US$1,500/oz for next year and US$1,450/oz for 2015. This adds up to 6%, 17% and 25% reductions. The broker's long term price remained unchanged at US$1,300/oz. For Silver Lake this all added up to a downgrade.

SP Ausnet ((SPN)) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and to Sell from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 0/5/2

SP Ausnet's result beat Credit Suisse on a lower tax rate, while distribution guidance remained intact. SPN has may have been included in the market's drive for yield, but the broker feels the company's return profile is relatively lacking. There also remains uncertainty over the ongoing Bushfire case.

Deutsche Bank has some issues with the stock that it does not believe are adequately priced in. Too much exposure to structurally lower regulated returns, limited cash generation to fund distributions and ongoing litigation from the 2009 Victorian bushfires. With shares also trading at a 30% premium to the broker valuation, the stock is overvalued and hence downgraded

Suncorp Group ((SUN)) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 5/1/2

The broker took a new look at the stock and made some small increases to its profit forecasts and valuation. This leads to a higher price target, but the lift is not enough. The broker thinks the stock is fully priced after running 25% so far this year after a 25% run in 2012. Too much for now, thinks Credit Suisse, so the recommendation was downgraded.

UGL ((UGL)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 1/6/1

Losses on underperforming power projects, delays in engineering project ramp-ups and cost cutting from miners were all behind UGL's 39% downgrade to FY13 profit guidance. The broker's forecast earnings were dropped 34% and 15% in FY13-14 in response. UGL appears to have fared worse from industry cost cutting than the rest of the sector, the broker noted, suggesting the company's costing is not competitive, or relationships with customers are breaking down. A divisional break-up would offer up two takeover opportunities, but in the meantime the broker downgrades.

Significant consensus target price and earnings forecast changes tabled below.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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