Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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This story features MGX RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGX
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: BA-Merrill Lynch, CIMB, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Tuesday April 22 to Thursday April 24, 2014
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 40.13%; Hold 43.26%; Sell 16.61%

A shortened, holiday dominated, quiet week predictably delivered no dramas but FNArena still registered 7 upgrades and 5 downgrades. Note that Mount Gibson accounted for no less than three upgrades in rating during the week, otherwise the balance would have been equal. Resources stocks continue to dominate, predominantly on the back of analysts re-assessing the outlook for supply/demand and prices.

Transport services provider McAleese, otherwise known as the IPO from Hell, is a remarkable exception on the negative side of earnings forecasts and valuations, as is troubled biotech hopeful QRXPharma.
 

Upgrades

Alacer Gold ((AQG)) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ahead of the March quarter production numbers the broker has adjusted sulphide operating expectations, forecasting a higher start-up grade. There are no changes to near-term earnings but a 2017-18 uplift drives a valuation change. As a result the target is raised to $3.25 from $2.80 and the rating is raised to Outperform from Underperform.

Asciano ((AIO)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by BA-Merrill Lynch. B/H/S: 6/1/0

The broker is upgrading to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and the easier comparables that are being cycled in the fourth quarter. Merrills observes the share price is factoring in some probability of an FY14 earnings downgrade but considers this unlikely. Container movements are improving, coal volumes are solid and the broker is not aware of any major contract losses with PN Rail. Merrills believes there is still a risk around the roll0ver of take-or-pay contracts in PN Coal but this is only an issue beyond FY18. The target is raised to $6.10 from $6.00.

Mount Gibson Iron ((MGX)) upgraded to Add from Hold by CIMB, to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 3/3/1

Third quarter production was behind CIMB's estimates. The company remains confident it can deliver 9.5mt for FY14. A positive update on infill drilling and outcomes from optimisation studies offer potential catalysts for the stock.CIMB is upgrading the rating to Add from Hold, reflecting improved confidence in forward earnings. Credit Suisse notes the company has moved significant material despite the wet season. The broker believes Mount Gibson has been steadily overcoming short mine life through exploration and minor acquisitions. Credit Suisse sees a seven-year mine life for Koolan Island and Extension Hill, to 2020, if the promising Iron Hill prospect is included. The recently-acquired Shine deposit is also envisaged replacing Tallering Peak from 2015 to 2018. Credit Suisse acknowledges the costs at Shine are high because of high trucking distances, and at current iron ore price forecasts the mine is cash-flow negative. Mt Gibson's production, sales, product mix, realised prices and cash flow all disappointed Macquarie, but the broker has upgraded to Outperform. Now that Koolan Island is ahead on stripping, June quarter production is expected to be strong. Greater price disclosure reduces the risk of an earnings shock, the broker notes. The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on share price decline.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by BA-Merrill Lynch. B/H/S: 2/4/2

Current pricing is suggesting some probability of a FY14 earnings downgrade but Merrills thinks this is less likely than at the start of 2014. Structural challenges persist but the broker thinks the cyclical argument is improving. The stock is traditionally correlated with consumer confidence and retail sales and Merrills envisages these two indicators improving over 2014.The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $5.60 from $5.15.

Woolworths ((WOW)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/1/3

The broker expects Woolworths to outperform over the next 12 months because of stronger growth in grocery earnings and easing concerns over the Masters business. Based on better trends in Masters the broker thinks the implied valuation should improve. UBS has upgraded FY15-17 forecasts by 2-5% based on higher food and liquor inflation and cost cutting. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target to $39.20 from $35.90.

Downgrades

Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BA-Merrill Lynch. B/H/S: 3/4/0

The broker has reluctantly downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The stock is close to an all-time high and the positives are considered priced in. That said, the broker considers the stock is attractive in terms of its growth profile, with the drivers over the next three years relatively low risk. Over time Merrills thinks the stock may grind higher but in the short term there's more value from cyclical exposures such as Asciano ((AIO)) and Toll ((TOL)). The target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.60.

Charter Hall ((CHC)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 5/2/0

Charter Hall has outperformed both the A-REIT and broader equities market by around 8% over the past quarter. UBS has marginally upgraded earnings forecasts after further fund acquisitions. Given the price movements the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target raised to $4.24 from $3.92. UBS still likes Charter Hall, believing the business is appropriately resourced, with continued increase in assets under management across all classes.

Mincor Resources ((MCR)) downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 1/0/1

The weather was among other incremental factors behind Mincor's 20% quarter-on-quarter fall in production, which fell 3% short of the broker's forecast. Costs were 15% higher than expected. The nickel price, to which Mincor is highly leveraged, has rallied 32% this year while the share price is up 62%. This forces the broker to downgrade to Sell on valuation with the caveat that, were the nickel rally to continue, driven by the Indonesian ban, tension in Eastern Europe and recovering demand, the share price will stay supported.Target rises to 70c from 61c.

Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 2/2/4

Newcrest's 11% quarter-on-quarter fall in production was not unexpected but is disappointing nevertheless. Cadia had reduced tonnage, Telfer lower grades, and perennial disappointment, Lihir Island, posted both low grades and throughput. Costs were broadly in line with the broker's expectation. Formal FY15 guidance was not provided but management implied further weakness. Lihir provides 35% of output, the broker notes, but Newcrest has no long term plan for operations. Target falls to $8.10 to $10.80. Downgrade to Sell.

QRxPharma ((QRX)) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 1/0/1

A knock-back from the FDA takes the US market out of the picture for now for MoxDuo-IR and reduces the likelihood of success in other regions, the broker suggests. The delay in commercialisation and increased risk weighting means the broker cuts the target to 6c from 92c and downgrades to Sell.
 

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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