Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 25, 2022

This story features AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAC

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AAC   ALL (2)   ARU   BPT   BWX   CDA   CGC   CGS   COE   COL   CUP   DMP   EVO   GEM   HLS (2)   HVN   IFM   JLG   MFD   MTS (2)   NUF (2)   PMV   SKC   STN   TWE   WEB (2)   WOW (2)   WPL  

AAC    AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL COMPANY LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.08

Bell Potter rates ((AAC)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Australian Agricultural Co's full year reported earnings of $49.9m were ahead of Bell Potter's expectations of $38.9m, and up 105% year-on-year. The broker noted despite liveweight sold being -12% less than the previous year, earnings per liveweight kilogram were up 133%.

The company is yet to provide guidance for the coming year, but Bell Potter noted the company suggests inflationary pressures will impact on costs of key inputs. Despite this, the broker has upgraded its FY23 earnings forecast 32% driven by meat and grain assumptions.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $2.15 from $1.70.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.07
If AAC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 115.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 160.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $34.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

First half sales and earnings were a 6% and 5% beat versus consensus estimates, with North American land based coming in 12% higher than Goldman Sachs' above-consensus profit forecast. 

Because of a stronger outlook for the latter, the broker upgrades FY22-25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 7%, 3% and 1%, respectively.

Additionally, the analyst points out a stronger forecast contribution from the rest of the world is only partly offset by a higher expected design & development spend.

Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating and $43 target price.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: $8.6
If ALL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.13, suggesting upside of 26.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.1, implying annual growth of 26.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 190.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.5, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Overweight (2) –

Aristocrat Leisure's March first-half result pleased Jarden, particularly the performance of its North American Gaming business, which consolidated its No.1 market position.

The digital business outpaced the broker thanks to growth in Plarium Play from 20% to 27% of Plarium revenues, but expenses may have nosed out consensus, given acquisitions and rising costs, and Jarden is keeping a cautious eye peeled to this metric, given the riskier digital division will need to show a return on investment.

EPS forecasts rise 19% in FY22, 8% in FY23 and 4% in FY24.

Overweight rating retained, the broker considering the $500m buyback supportive and noting the company has further capital levers at its disposal. Target price rises to $40.14 from $37.66.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $40.14 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: $5.74
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.13, suggesting upside of 26.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 172.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.1, implying annual growth of 26.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 169.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.5, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARU    ARAFURA RESOURCES LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.37

Bell Potter rates ((ARU)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter initiates on Arafura Resources as the company looks to reach a final investment decision on its Nolans rare earth project. The broker anticipates Nolans could start producing from early 2025, providing an average 4,400 tonnes neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide annually over 38 years. 

The broker highlights NdPr permanent magnet motors will be critical to electric vehicle production, and production of the rare earth will need to increase more than 100,000 tonnes annually by 2035 to meet demand.

Arafura Resources recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Hyundai, a sign of progress on key milestones according to Bell Potter.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $0.60.

This report was published on May 25, 2022.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.23
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.60.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.28.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.64

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

Morne Engelbrecht returns to Beach Energy as CEO and managing director (he previously held the position of CFO in 2016).

The board says the choice reflects the fact that its challenges are switching from technical to financial/commercial and that the company's major shareholders are already familiar with Mr Engelbrecht.

The board does not expect Mr Engelbrecht's strategy to differ greatly from the existing strategy

Jarden considers Beach Petroleum one of the few avenues to obtain exposure to the east coast gas market and retains a Buy rating and $1.90 target price.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.26
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 119.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of -23.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWX    BWX LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.39

Jarden rates ((BWX)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (4) –

Jarden downgrades BWX to Underweight from Overweight after the company's investor day failed to remove the pall from the company's balance sheet, and the broker grows increasingly pessimistic about the company's growth and margin prospects.

The broker says the company has abandoned it $30m to $50m FY23 revenue target for Europe and has pushed back its FY23 $100m sales forecast for its US mass-market channel to FY25.

This brings Jarden's main concern regarding a $93m September 2024 liability into focus, given the owners' put option is not exercisable at any time over the next three years, as the broker thought.

Target price nearly halves to $1.04 from $1.98. 

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If BWX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 80.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -52.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 46.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDA    CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $7.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CDA)) as Buy (1) –

The benefits of Codan's diversification strategy have become more evident with the company's latest market update according to Canaccord Genuity, with Communications being a main driver of growth and offsetting softness in Metal Detection.

With the second half likely to be similar to the first, Canaccord Genuity notes implied full year profit of $100m is a -5.2% miss on its expectations but credible given pressures encountered in the year.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.60 from $13.70.

This report was published on May 24, 2022.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $7.59 Difference: $3.01
If CDA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.80.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.91

Jarden rates ((CGC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden considers margin forecasts for the supermarket segment to be  realistic given the oligopoly's pricing power, ability to pass through costs and generate higher private label sales. 

Costa Group remains a key pick for the broker, Jarden expecting a positive surprise if margins are sustained and noting the company is likely to be a relative beneficiary from inflation. Overweight rating and $3.50 target price appear to be unchanged.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.59
If CGC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 24.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 62.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.75

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CGS)) as Buy (1) –

Cogstate has announced an expanded partnership with Clario to deliver leading data collection and quality programs, with Canaccord Genuity noting the partnership represents a low-cost way for Cogstate to expand its reach across pharma, med-tech and devices. 

The broker anticipates impact of the opportunity may take 6-12 months to be realised, but offers sustainable growth and drives upside to Canaccord Genuity's FY23 and FY24 estimates.

Cogstate remains one of Canaccord Genuity's preferred picks. The Buy rating and target price of $2.75 are retained.

This report was published on May 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $1
If CGS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.27

Bell Potter rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy outlined plans to more than double the output of its Otway Basin project, and extend project life. Bell Potter notes Phase 3 development will focus on the Annie field, while development of the Henry field has been deferred in favour of a focus on capital efficiency. 

The broker anticipates Otway production to be above 30 terrajoules per day by 2026, from a current 13 terrajoules per day. In the current year, higher spot gas pricing and improved performance has seen earnings guidance upgraded to $57-68m from a previous $53.63m.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.33 from $0.38.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.06
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 135.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.20 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $17.65

Jarden rates ((COL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden considers margin forecasts for the supermarket segment to be  realistic given the oligopoly's ability to pass through costs and generate higher private label sales.

Coles remains a key sector pick for the broker, Jarden expecting a positive surprise if margins are sustained. Overweight rating and $18.10 target price appear to be unchanged.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $17.65 Difference: $0.45
If COL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.11, suggesting upside of 7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 76.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 81.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUP    COUNTPLUS LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $0.57

Wilsons rates ((CUP)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons suggests the first task of newly-appointed ceo Hugh Humphrey should be to accelerate the turn around for Countplus. A two-year turnaround strategy was launched in May 2017 aiming for culture change and targeting sustainable growth for member firms.

The broker expects tuck-in acquisitions in the Core Accounting Firms segment. There's also estimated to be a long-term $9.8m revenue opportunity should a 5% share of the SMSF education market in Australia be reached.

The Market-weight rating and $0.79 target price are maintained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.22
If CUP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.63.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $69.48

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden examines Domino's Pizza Enterprises' prospects in an economic downturn and rising inflation.

The broker spies near-term earnings vulnerability and notes the company's performance during the GFC suggests some weakness but Jarden believes this is priced in.

Jarden appears to believe the market has mis-priced the threat from a downturn, noting the company's share price suggest Domino's will miss its medium-term targets.

Jarden believes the company is likely to outperform peers on a relative basis given its pricing power, value position and store roll-out.

Target price falls to $96 from $108 mainly to reflect currency movements but the broker believes the outlook is robust. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $96.00 Current Price is $69.48 Difference: $26.52
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $99.13, suggesting upside of 41.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 210.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.6, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.5, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 199.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVO    EVOLVE EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVO)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity predicts the Federal election result will be positive for childcare demand. The Labor government is aiming to make childcare more affordable by increasing the percentage of fees covered by the government.

Separate to this boost, the analyst observes demand growth is outstripping growth in supply, which should continue to drive occupancy in the sector. Also, a recent Australian acquisition by an overseas peer is thought to indicate sector-wide undervaluation.

While Evolve Education looks cheap on a long-term basis and the Australian centres should benefit from the above-mentioned tailwinds, the broker is cautious over the 102 centres in New Zealand. 

The Hold rating and NZ90c target are retained. 

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Current Price is $0.69. Target price not assessed.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GEM)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity predicts the Federal election result will be positive for childcare demand. The Labor government is aiming to make childcare more affordable by increasing the percentage of fees covered by the government.

Separate to this boost, the analyst observes demand growth is outstripping growth in supply, which should continue to drive occupancy in the sector. Also, a recent Australian acquisition by an overseas peer is thought to indicate sector-wide undervaluation.

Despite covid disruptions which weighed upon 1Q results, the broker believes G8 Education is trading on attractive multiples and should deliver solid earnings growth in 2022.

The Buy rating and $1.42 target price are retained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.27
If GEM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 37.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $4.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Following an investor day by Healius, Goldman Sachs continues to model a -74% decline in PCR volumes in FY23 versus FY22,
though suggests a greater chance of upside risk over any downside risk.

The analyst highlights a sharp increase in business-as-usual pathology volumes due to the recent uptick in seasonal respiratory disease.

Positive revisions to the broker's earnings forecasts are offset by the inclusion of the $100m buyback announced in March. As a result, the $4.60 target price is unchanged. The Neutral rating is also maintained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.35
If HLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 609.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -54.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Healius's strategy day has confirmed Jarden's fears of deteriorating volumes, higher staffing costs and continued margin erosion.

EPS forecasts are cut -4.3% in FY22, -2.4% in FY23, and -3.4% in FY24.

Neutral rating retained, but Jarden recognises the risk to consensus ratings.

Target price falls to $3.63 from $4.23.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $3.63 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 56.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 609.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -54.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.36

Jarden rates ((HVN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden considers the household goods sector (particularly electronics) to be vulnerable to intensifying global competition, falling demand and discounting. 

The broker retains Underweight ratings on Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)). 

Jarden expects Wesfarmers ((WES)) will suffer less given the strong housing context and recent comments from Home Depot and appears to retain and Overweight rating for the company. 

Target prices for the three stocks appear to be unchanged.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.14
If HVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.87, suggesting upside of 34.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.0, implying annual growth of -21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFM    INFOMEDIA LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.63

Bell Potter rates ((IFM)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

TA Associates Management has obtained a 14.5% relevant interest in Infomedia, through an agreement with Viburnum Funds, while also subsequently launching a takeover bid for Infomedia at a price of $1.70 per share.

While Infomedia indicated it will consider TA Associates Management's proposal, it is also in discussions with other parties. In Bell Potter's view, the offer appears reasonable and the broker notes the share price has rallied, potentially at the prospect of a competing bid.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $1.85.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.17
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.60.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG    JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.66

Goldman Sachs rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Johns Lyng has confirmed FY22 guidance though Goldman Sachs points out a track record of conservatism by management in forward looking statements. 

The Buy rating is maintained as the company is trading on an undemanding multiple compared to its peers, according to the broker. The $11.35 target price is also unchanged.

The analyst expects solid medium-term growth as the core Business-as-Usual insurance restoration segment continues to grow as
the group wins new panels and grows its share of existing panels.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $5.69
If JLG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.73.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFD    MAYFIELD CHILDCARE LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MFD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity predicts the Federal election result will be positive for childcare demand. The Labor government is aiming to make childcare more affordable by increasing the percentage of fees covered by the government.

Separate to this boost, the analyst observes demand growth is outstripping growth in supply, which should continue to drive occupancy in the sector. Also, a recent Australian acquisition by an overseas peer is thought to indicate sector-wide undervaluation.

Despite covid disruptions which weighed upon 1Q results, the broker believes Mayfield Childcare is trading on attractive multiples and should deliver solid earnings growth in 2022.

The Buy rating and $1.76 target price are retained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.3
If MFD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.97.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

Following recent industry news on food inflation and the housing industry, Goldman Sachs reviews its forecasts for Metcash.

While remaining Neutral, the broker's target price rises to $4.40 from $4.10 to reflect a structural improvement in the business, most notably the Hardware segment.

For that segment, the analyst slightly increases its FY23 earnings (EBIT) margin forecast from FY22, due to an improving mix of
in the professional segment at higher margins and the ongoing store refresh Sapphire Program.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.16
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden considers margin forecasts for the supermarket segment to be  realistic given the oligopoly's ability to pass through costs and generate higher private label sales.

Metcash remains a key sector pick for the broker, Jarden expecting a positive surprise if margins are sustained. Buy rating and $4.80 target price appear to be unchanged.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.56
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.99

Bell Potter rates ((NUF)) as Buy (1) –

First half underlying earnings from Nufarm of $329.8m were a beat on Bell Potter's expected $322.1m, despite a number of headwinds impacting on the period. The broker expects the company will have a positive full year, with a skew to the first half.

Bell Potter highlighted outperformance vis-a-vis peers in all markets is encouraging for the company's longer-term targets, including its $4bn crop protection revenue target.

The Buy rating and target price of $7.85 are retained.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $2.86
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 35.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 137.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NUF)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons attributes higher selling prices and earlier seasonal demand for a strong 1H result by Nufarm. More sustainable growth in the APAC region from new product launches and in North America from effective customer service was noted.

The broker upgrades its FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 15%, due to the strong 1H and by assuming a 75:25 2H/1H skew. The target price slips to $5.58 from $5.68, while the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $5.58 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.59
If NUF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 35.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 137.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $22.47

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

Jarden considers the fashion sector to be less exposed and says the performance of Premier Investments drives its above-consensus stance on margin for the company, expecting it will benefit from Smiggle's structurally lower store base and higher margin channel mix.

Overweight rating at $22.70 target price retained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $8.03
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.88, suggesting upside of 38.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.2, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.3, implying annual growth of -3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.44

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Overweight (2) –

Improving activity in Auckland and Hamilton for SKYCITY Entertainment has been partly offset by slower recovery in Adelaide, with Jarden noting the pace of recovery remains a key uncertainty for the company.

In some relief for the company's otherwise tight debt position, the broker notes SKYCITY Entertainment has secured an extension for its debt covenant. Jarden anticipates net debt to normalise quickly as earnings recover to pre-covid levels beyond the first half of FY23.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$3.20 from NZ$3.30.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Current Price is $2.44. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1297.87.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.28 cents and EPS of 12.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.81.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STN    SATURN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.40

Shaw and Partners rates ((STN)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners are highly encouraged by recent drilling results from the Hercules prospect, within Saturn Metals's broader Apollo Hill land holdings.

The broker reminds investors that shares are trading at just $27/oz of resource, a significant discount to a peer group average of $73/oz.

The Buy rating and $0.97 target price are maintained.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.57
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.36.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $11.53

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden expects margin forecasts for the supermarket segment to be  realistic given the oligopoly's ability to pass through costs and generate higher private label sales.

The broker expects Treasury Wine Estates should weather conditions well and retains its $13 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.53 Difference: $1.47
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 56.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of 24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.91

Goldman Sachs rates ((WEB)) as Buy (1) –

Following FY22 results for Webjet, Goldman Sachs retains an unchanged investment thesis and highlights strong operating cash flow and an activity ramp-up in May, especially in the Americas.

The broker points out shares continue to trade at a discount relative to historical levels, and a strong cash balance could result in value accretive acquisitions. 

The Buy rating and $6.90 target price are maintained.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.99
If WEB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 107.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Neutral (3) –

Webjet's FY22 full-year result appears to have met Jarden's forecasts and demonstrates the travel market is recovering.

The company posted a cash surplus of $4m a month as working capital improved, but cash burn still outpaced at -$5.5m a month.

The company reports $434m of cash and cash equivalents and management boasts of strong liquidity and a growth runway, and the ability to consider attractive opportunities, reports the broker.

Higher costs drive Jarden to cut its target price to $5.07 from $5.20. Neutral rating retained on valuation.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $5.07 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 107.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $34.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs was not surprised by Woolworths Group's offer to acquire 80% of MyDeal.com.au ((MYD)) as the transaction is consistent with the company's “eco-system” corporate strategy.

The key will be to leverage the capabilities and existing consumer assets of MyDeal to drive synergies with Woolworths Group's existing business, suggests the analyst.

The Buy rating and $41.70 target price are maintained.

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Target price is $41.70 Current Price is $34.43 Difference: $7.27
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 128.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.6, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WOW)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden asks whether US retailers could be the canary in the coalmine for Australian retailers, and the answer is "yes".

US retailers recently reported a sharp slump in profits, sparking a sell-off in Australian retail shares. Global retailers generally posted reasonable sales but suffered margin erosion as inflation came home to roost, and Jarden expects this will be echoed in Australia.

But Jarden expects margin forecasts for the supermarket segment to be  realistic given the oligopoly's ability to pass through costs and generate higher private label sales.

The broker is restricted from providing a rating on Woolworths, but considers Metcash and Coles its two sector picks and also appreciates Treasury Wine Estates and Costa Group. 

This report was published on May 23, 2022.

Current Price is $34.43. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 114.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 134.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.6, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL    WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $28.99

Jarden rates ((WPL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden considers Woodside Petroleum to be materially under-geared after the approval of the merger with BHP Petroleum and suspects a buyback in the region of US$3bn may be in the wings.

The broker cuts the target price by -4% to $32.20 from $33.60 to reflect the merger, noting the company's main focus will be on integration to deliver $400m in forecast synergies.

Given its under-geared position, the broker notes Woodside can also fund all growth projects and expects its product and geographic diversity will increase sharply.

Jarden expects the company will continue to invest heavily in hydrogen ($5bn out to 2030). Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on May 20, 2022.

Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $28.99 Difference: $3.21
If WPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.82, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 195.30 cents and EPS of 401.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 318.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 183.01 cents and EPS of 328.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 336.8, implying annual growth of -25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 240.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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