Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 30, 2022

This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABP   AIA   BRG   BST   CCX   COE   CSL   ECF   NEC   NWS   PLY   QAN (2)   QBE   QML   SGR   SHV (2)   SKO   SLA   TNE (2)   TWE  

ABP    ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.70

Moelis rates ((ABP)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis feels commentary from Abacus Property's AGM points to an easing in challenging storage and office conditions. Office portfolio occupancy declined to 93.0% in the first quarter while retail occupancy held largely stable at 95.0%.

The broker finds Abacus Property oversold, noting a lack of material near-term catalysts are likely holding back the stock.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.21 from $3.58.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.51
If ABP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -69.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of -3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.31

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden expects Auckland International Airport's earnings composition to shift sharply to aeronautical when it updates its aeronautical price settings, expecting the company to spend -NZ$6bn on the sector over the next decade.

The broker forecasts aeronautical earnings (EBITDA) will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% between FY19 to FY32, resulting in a reduction in net profit after tax of -5.7%.

Jarden forecasts the company's net debt will rise from NZ$1.5bn to NZ$4.3bn by the end of FY27 and to NZ$7.3bn by the end of FY32, which the broker says should hamper financial flexibility and capital returns.

But after assessing the company's beta, the broker believes it will be a net positive. Earnings forecasts are steady in FY23; and rise 4.6% for FY24 and 9.6% for FY25.

Underweight rating retained. Target price rises to NZ$7 from NZ$6.95.

This report was published on November 21, 2022.

Current Price is $7.31. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 86.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.18 cents and EPS of 16.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 107.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $20.20

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden anticipates upcoming margin pressure for Breville Group and downgrades its rating to Underweight from Neutral. The target is decreased to $19.20 from $22.40 on lower earnings forecasts and an increased risk-free rate assumption.

While industry trading in the US for small appliances has been relatively resilient, the analyst points to recent weak results from the likes of Amazon and consumer retailer Williams-Sonoma.

Favourable currency movements are an around 10% tailwind, yet the EMEA region is experiencing margin, sales and currency headwinds, explains the broker.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $20.20 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 20.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 83.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of 4.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 92.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.9, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BST    BEST & LESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.22

Bell Potter rates ((BST)) as Buy (1) –

Softer consumer demand and weather related impacts were evident, observes Bell Potter, in the trading update by Best & Less for the first 20 weeks of FY23. Like-for-like sales fell by -7.4% on the previous corresponding period.

The analyst expects a better 2H of FY23, though annual performance is largely dependent upon the largest shopping seasons during the second and fourth quarters.

The broker's target falls to $2.60 from $2.90 due to lower FY23 gross margins than previously expected and a higher cost-of-doing-business (CODB) forecast.

Relative to value-retail peers, Bell Potter likes the gross profit margins of Best & Less and its pricing power as a stock developer via a vertical product model. The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.38
If BST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.70 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.69.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.10 cents and EPS of 35.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.32.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.68

Goldman Sachs rates ((CCX)) as Neutral (3) –

A trading update by City Chic Collective for the first 20 weeks of FY23 revealed sales growth of -2%, compared to the 18% expected by Goldman Sachs for the 1H.

Management explained competitive pressures have increased the necessity for promotional activity in the Northern Hemisphere, eroding around -400bps of margin year-on-year.

Due to these competitive pressures and a weaker macroeconomic backdrop, the broker remains cautious around the revenue, inventory and margin outlook for the remainder of FY23.

Goldman Sachs retains its Neutral rating and sets a $1.55 target price.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.875
If CCX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 81.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of -36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.19

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

While Cooper Energy blames unplanned outages at the Orbost Gas Processing plant (OGPP), Jarden suspects the market is tiring of excuses for ongoing performance under-delivery.

Despite this view, the broker maintains its Overweight rating following recent share price weakness. Management maintained FY23 guidance for production, underlying earnings (EBITDAX) and capex.

The analyst suggests the upper-end of production guidance is unlikely to be achieved, save for a material improvement in output. The target is reduced to 26c from 30c on lower production estimates.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.07
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 45.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $302.58

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons begins an ongoing series of research focused on CSL's key R&D pipeline assets and expansion opportunities.

The broker's first installment: is the first ever gene therapy for Haemophilia B granted by the FDA to Hemgenix, CSL’s asset licensed from Dutch biotech company uniQure.

This asset has an ability to expand and fortify CSL’s leadership position in Haemophilia B, already established with Idelvion, according to the analyst. Margin expansion and sales leverage opportunities are anticipated after the commercial launch in FY24.

Wilsons lifts its target for CSL to $327 from $318.33 on a de-risking of the pipeline. Overweight.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $327.00 Current Price is $302.58 Difference: $24.42
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $327.03, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 340.63 cents and EPS of 757.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 815.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 378.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 393.59 cents and EPS of 877.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1019.9, implying annual growth of 25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 466.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECF    ELANOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY FUND

REITs – Overnight Price: $0.94

Shaw and Partners rates ((ECF)) as Buy (1) –

A new analyst from Shaw and Partners is now covering office-focused real estate investment fund Elanor Commercial Property Fund and begins with a $1.20 target price, down from the $1.35 set in March.

The broker's Buy rating is predicated upon the fund's segment-leading distribution yield, current asset base with value-add potential, and pipeline of opportunities. 

The analyst believes the combination of capital growth potential and income suggests the stock is undervalued. 

One key risk is property market weakness, in particular office, cautions Shaw.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.26
If ECF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.55.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.62.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $2.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEC)) as Buy (1) –

Management proved upbeat about broadcaster-video-on-demand (BVOD) audience growth from free-to-air migration at Nine Entertainment's Total TV investor day, but Goldman Sachs is more conservative.

The broker expects free-to-air to moderate by -2% to -3%, due mainly to declining audiences, which it expects will be offset by BVOD grabbing audience migration and slight increases in BVOD demand.

Goldman Sachs expects an audience drag of -9% in the June half and a slowing in advertising as economic growth slows, but appreciates the company's high-quality digital assets and cost management.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $2.60 from $2.70.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.45
If NEC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 29.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $27.54

JP Morgan rates ((NWS)) as Overweight (1) –

Following 1Q results, JP Morgan lowers its FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts for News Corp though expects an improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop by the next financial year.

The broker sees significant value in the company's shares and feels the potential combination with Fox Corp will, at the very least, shine a light on the discount to the analyst's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation.

Around $4bn of market cap is currently being attributed to News Corp’s assets excluding REA Group ((REA)). However, JP Morgan believes Dow Jones and Book Publishing are likely worth over $10bn, while Move is not being ascribed its full value either.

The $39 target price and Overweight rating are maintained.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $27.54 Difference: $11.46
If NWS meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.37, suggesting upside of 19.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.63 cents and EPS of 88.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.63 cents and EPS of 145.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of 24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLY    PLAYSIDE STUDIOS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.67

Shaw and Partners rates ((PLY)) as Buy (1) –

Playside Studios has announced the extension of its relationship with Meta having signed a new game development partnership for the production of a mixed reality title. 

Shaw and Partners finds the contract material, and the announcement supportive of its expectation for growth in work-for-hire revenues in FY23 and beyond. 

The broker was pleasantly surprised by the inclusion of a revenue share provision that will allow Playside Studios to receive a cut of net revenues from the title.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.90 are retained.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.235
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 110.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 221.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades Qantas Airways' earnings forecasts after the company guider to a higher pre-tax profit.

Management observes stronger cash generation and has guided to a -$900m reduction in net debt as earnings rise and aircraft deliveries are delayed, says the broker.

The board says it is now in a position to focus on shareholder returns, now the buyback is finished and the balance sheet has perked up.

EPS forecasts rise 17% in FY23 and 4%-5% in FY24 and FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price is $8.20.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $2.01
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 22.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Qantas Airways raised December-half profit-before tax guidance (up 12%), well above Jarden's forecast, thanks to an improvement in bookings and a deferral of capital expenditure into the June half.

As a result, net debt improved by -$900m. Add to that completion of the buyback, and the balance sheet is looking rosier. Management guided to further shareholder distributions (possibly buybacks) in the June half and the broker reallocates its dividend forecast to a buyback.

EPS forecasts rise 15.4% for FY23; 2.6% for FY24; and 2% for FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $6.80 from $6.65.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $0.61
If QAN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 22.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 87.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.10 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.96

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance's trading update pleased Jarden, gross written premiums and investment yield outpacing guidance, while average premium rate rises this year outpaced Jarden's forecast.

The broker introduces a more conservative catastrophe allowance for weather events, but overall, says its FY23 EPS forecasts remain intact and that it appreciates the company's 7.4x price earnings multiple.

FY22 EPS forecasts, however, fall -12%. Buy rating retained. Target price inches up to $18 from $17.95.

This report was published on November 21, 2022.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $5.04
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting upside of 26.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 57.25 cents and EPS of 70.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 87.31 cents and EPS of 158.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.1, implying annual growth of 114.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QML    QMINES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.17

Shaw and Partners rates ((QML)) as Buy (1) –

QMines has released a resource upgrade for its Mt Chalmers copper project, lifting the mineral resource 104% to 11.86m tonnes and contained metal 44% to 144,700 tonnes. Shaw and Partners highlights 88% of the resource is now defined as measured and indicated.

The company has also released maiden resource fro Wood Shaft of 540,000 tonnes. While smaller than the initial exploration target, this is anticipated to increase. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.41 from $0.74.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.235
If QML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 134% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.46.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.70

Jarden rates ((SGR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden reviews Star Entertainment heading into its September-quarter trading update, which the broker expects will be positive.

The broker removes its FY23 dividend assumption (now zero), the broker expecting the company will be seeking to improve its capital position and leverage as Treasury earnings dissipate from FY24.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $3.49 from $3.67 to reflect an extra -$200m in fines from AUSTRAC and Queensland and a possible capital raising to account for cost overruns. 

This report was published on November 21, 2022.

Target price is $3.49 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.79
If SGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 68.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV    SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.35

Bell Potter rates ((SHV)) as Buy (1) –

Select Harvests' full year net profits from continuing operations of $6.2m have come in modestly below Bell Potter's expected $8.9m, and down -76% year-on-year.

The company already looks likely to face a seasonal high in operating costs over the coming year while almond prices are at a cyclical low, the broker highlights.

The broker has lowered its net profit forecasts -49% and -30% in FY23 and FY24 respectively, accounting for a lower almond price and higher costs, but considers buying the stock below net asset value is an attractive entry point. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.20 from $6.90.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $1.85
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.14.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SHV)) as Overweight (1) –

FY22 earnings (EBIT) for Select Harvests were an -8% miss compared to Wilsons expectation as a result of higher production costs (due to wet weather) and a larger net loss from other activities. These activities include hull sales, value-add and corporate costs.

The broker lowers its FY23 almond production forecast by -8% due to the weather-related impacts of disease and pest damage, while FY24 forecasts are unchanged.

Revised currency assumptions drive the analyst's 2-7% forecast price increase for FY23-24. However, the FY23 earnings forecast falls by -71% due to lower revenue, higher production costs and lower net income from the above-mentioned other activities.

The target falls to $6.54 from $6.77. The Overweight rating is retained as shares are trading at a material discount to Wilsons valuation.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $6.54 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $2.19
If SHV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 135.94.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO    SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.21

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Serko's September-half result broadly met Jarden's forecasts, thanks to a rebound in managed travel volumes in Australia and New Zealand.

The company's earnings (EBIT) loss proved a miss due to lower capitalised product development expenditure, observes the broker.

Management reiterated FY23 guidance, and suggested capital expenditure will be skewed to the second half. The company now expects to be cash-flow positive by FY25, compared with the broker's forecast of FY26.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight. Target price rises to NZ$3.90 from NZ$3.15.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Current Price is $2.21. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 119.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -24.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLA    SILK LASER AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $2.00

Shaw and Partners rates ((SLA)) as Buy (1) –

Silk Laser Australia's first quarter cash sales of $51.7m reflect a significant increase on the previous comparable period. Shaw and Partners finds the company well placed for long-term and profitable growth. 

According to Shaw, the company continues to demonstrate prudent cost control and has implemented a series of strategic price increases to mitigate cost inflation since the beginning of the fiscal year. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.80 from $2.80.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1.8
If SLA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.35.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $13.53

Bell Potter rates ((TNE)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

TechnologyOne reported profit before tax growth at the top end of its guidance range. Profits were up 15% year-on-year to $112.3m, while revenue grew 18% to $369.4m. 

Bell Potter found strong growth in software as a service and annual recurring revenue, up 43% and 25% respectively, to be a highlight of the result.

The company did not yet provide guidance for the coming year, and will likely announce guidance following the first half as is company policy. It was suggested the outlook is strong and the company believes it can surpass its FY26 annual recurring revenue target of $500m. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price of $14.25 is retained.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $13.53 Difference: $0.72
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.00, suggesting downside of -3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 36.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 17.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((TNE)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons assesses a solid FY22 result for TechnologyOne and upgrades its rating to Overweight from Market Weight on the accelerated transition of customers to the subscription offering.

The broker highlights the non-discretionary nature of the company's products and admires revenue growth in the face of the subscription  transition.

Management provided no short-term quantitative guidance though expects the business to double in size every five years.

Wilsons' target rises by 29% to $14.25 on increased long-term forecasts and a lower volatility assessment (Beta) for the company's shares relative to the overall market.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $13.53 Difference: $0.72
If TNE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.00, suggesting downside of -3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 17.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $13.66

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden reviews its Treasury Wine Estates forecasts after recent analysis and also incorporates the AGM trading update from more than a month ago. The target falls to $13.40 from $13.80 to reflect a higher assumed risk-free rate, modestly offset by earnings upgrades.

The broker's FY23 EPS forecasts are increased by 2% for FY23 driven by the US business and a favourable currency move, while Penfolds forecasts are trimmed on a more conservative marketing assumption.

The analyst believes tailwinds should exceed potential headwinds over the next two years. An Overweight rating is retained with management reiterating its targets at the AGM and as the premiumisation trend is expected to continue.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $13.66 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.22, suggesting upside of 4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 57.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 49.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 65.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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