Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 05, 2022

This story features ADRAD HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AHL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AHL   ASG   BUB   CAI   CCX   CKF   EML   ERD   FPH   GTK   HLS   IDX   IPG (2)   LGL   SMP   STO   WDS  

AHL    ADRAD HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $1.15

Bell Potter rates ((AHL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Given Adrad has a strong manufacturing/warehouse footprint and a low price earnings multiple, Bell Potter commences coverage with a Buy rating. A 12-month target price of $1.70 is set.

The company, which operates in A&NZ and SE Asia, specialises in the design, manufacture, importation and distribution of heat transfer solutions for the automotive and industrial markets.

The Aftermarket segment manufactures, imports and distributes radiators and other heat exchange products. The Original Equipment division designs and manufactures OEM industrial radiators and cooling solutions for high end applications.

The analyst likes Adrad's long track record and strong customer relationships.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.555
If AHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.68.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.98

Jarden rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (2) –

Autosports Group has guided to first half profit before tax of $48-50m, a 10.6% beat to Jarden's assumptions. Underpinning guidance is new vehicle demand continuing to outstrip supply and used car demand benefiting from new vehicle supply gap. 

According to Jarden, the market remains under supplied by -20%, but the company expects new vehicle supply to improve over FY23, and that gross profit margins increase given revenue mix. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.81 from $3.62.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $1.83
If ASG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.98.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BUB    BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $0.32

Wilsons rates ((BUB)) as Market Weight (3) –

Bubs Australia has confirmed trading conditions continue to deteriorate and now guides to December-half revenue being steady on the previous corresponding, despite the strong jump in September-quarter gross revenue.

Wilsons considers competition, particularly in the Chinese market, and operational hiccups as the company enters new markets, to be the main culprits.

The broker says further swings, either up or down, remain likely.

The broker cuts sales forecasts -44% in FY23; and -25% in FY24.

Market Weight retained. Target price falls to 30c a share from 68c.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 320.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAI    CALIDUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.35

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAI)) as Buy (1) –

Calidus Resources has cited the same labour issues impacting across the West Australian mining industry as a key driver of its first quarter performance. Production from the Warrawoona project of 12,800 ounces was a miss to Canaccord Genuity's anticipated 18,000 ounces, despite the company ramping up production since its first gold pour in May. 

The site suffered excessive mining dilution as a result of suboptimal blasting and mining practices, but Calidus Resources has implemented  initiatives to address this. Canaccord Genuity factors an additional 10% mine dilution over the next two years into its outlook. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.75 from $0.85. 

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.395
If CAI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.96.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.71

Jarden rates ((CCX)) as Neutral (3) –

City Chic Collective has reported a soft start to the year, with revenue down -2% year-on-year and well below Jarden's expected 9% growth. By region, A&NZ outperformed the broker's trading expectations, reporting 10% year-on-year growth, but sales in the US and EMEA declined -12% and -5% respectively. 

Higher promotional activity, particularly in the US, also drove a gross trading margin decline of -400 basis points on the previous comparable period. Jarden lowers its full year revenue estimates -5% and -10% for FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.17 from $2.09.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.455
If CCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 78.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of -36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.87

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CKF)) as Hold (3) –

First half results for Collins Foods were broadly in line with Canaccord Genuity's expectations though the outlook has been dimmed by the potential for inflation to impact on margins. Management has committed to limiting price increases and offering 'value'.

The broker assesses solid sales momentum for the first six weeks of trading for the 2H with similar divisional outcomes to the first half: KFC Australia flat, KFC Europe accelerating and Taco Bell weakening.

Largely due to anticipated margin headwinds, the broker lowers its target to $7.50 from $9.50. A Hold rating is maintained pending evidence of bottoming margins and potential catalysts like M&A and a quicker European rollout trajectory.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.69

Wilsons rates ((EML)) as Market Weight (3) –

EML Payments FY23 guidance met consensus on revenue but fell -11% short on earnings (EBITDA), says Wilsons.

The company is undertaking a strategic review focused on embedded payment solutions; retail, human capital management; and government migration to digital payments.

Wilsons retains a Market Weight rating and increases the target price 13% to 63c to reflect its adoption of a lower discount rate to intrinsic valuation, appreciating management provision of greater clarity on regulatory issues.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If EML meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.11.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 228.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.05

Jarden rates ((ERD)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden has described Eroad's first half result as "messy", with the period impacted by a number of abnormal costs and non-cash items. The company has begun a cost-out process, aiming to reduce its headcount by -10% and reviewing its office footprint to address cost pressures in the second half. 

Eroad has recently reiterated full year revenue and earnings guidance. Jarden feels questions remain around the company's ability to execute in North America. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$1.45 from NZ$1.65.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Current Price is $1.05. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.45.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1159.34.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $22.84

JP Morgan rates ((FPH)) as Neutral (3) –

After reviewing in-line 1H results for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, JP Morgan notes a pick up for consumables sales in the latter months that should accelerate, thanks to an early start to the US flu season.

However, the analyst cuts the FY24 sales estimate given no data was provided to back-up increased utilisation of the enlarged installed base.

The 1H result showed divisional sales were in line with JP Morgan's estimate, while slightly lower operating costs offset a weaker gross margin.

The broker's Neutral rating is retained on valuation and uncertainty of recovery. The target falls to NZ$20 from NZ$20.40.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Current Price is $22.84. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $21.50, suggesting downside of -4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.60 cents and EPS of 32.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.5.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.60 cents and EPS of 43.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of 35.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.32

Shaw and Partners rates ((GTK)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners upgrades its medium-term cash flow forecasts for Gentrack Group following an "impressive" FY22 result and increases its target to $4.50 from $2.90.

Apart from a result beat and raised FY23 and FY24 guidance, the broker particularly likes management's double-digit growth estimate out to FY27. A recovery is underway for Airports and the focus now turns to global expansion, according to Shaw.

The analyst can see an imminent and massive re-rate of the stock, after estimating a FY24 cash earnings (EBITDA) multiple more than double the existing level. Buy retained.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $2.18
If GTK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1267.76.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.05.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.03

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Healius has abandoned any attempts to provide FY23 guidance as uncertainty prevails on the path back to former long-term growth trends, notes Jarden.

The earnings (EBITDA) margin for the first four months of FY23 came in -500bps shy of the consensus expectation.

The analyst points out management made far brighter margin assurances at the company's AGM around a month prior. It's felt volumes have been under pressure given the company's Pathology growth lags Medicare data.

The broker downgrades its rating to Underweight from Neutral and lowers its target to $2.90 from $3.18.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of -77.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 54.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.71

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Overweight (2) –

Data suggests diagnostic imaging in October has grown 4.8%, in line with September growth of 4.9%, with industry revenue growth at 3.5% on a four month basis. 

While Integral Diagnostics' growth rate has improved but the company continues to lag nation-wide growth, reporting benefits growth of just 1.0% on a four-month basis. Jarden notes month-on-month improvement in October and expects further improvement through the half.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.56 from $3.52.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.85
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 73.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 27.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $3.11

Bell Potter rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1) –

IPD Group, the distributor of electrical equipment and industrial digital technologies, released 1H guidance at its AGM well ahead of Bell Potter's forecasts.

The guidance ranges for revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were $105.3-108m and $13.0-13.4m, respectively. Management noted ongoing strong momentum out of key suppliers.

The broker highlights the company provides leverage to a new life cycle of demand in the form of electrification, which has attained over 15% market growth per year in Europe over the last two years.

Bell Potter raises its EPS forecasts by 10-15% across FY23-25 and its target rises to $3.35 from $2.25. Buy.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.24
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Shaw and Partners rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1) –

IPD Group's maiden AGM guidance sharply outpaced Wilson's forecasts and the company plans to start investing in long-term growth in the June half.

CEO Mohamed Youssuff is moving to Director of Strategic Development.

The broker describes the company has a high-quality with strong growth prospects, cash generation and balance sheet.

Price target rises to $3.53 from $2.52. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $3.53 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.42
If IPG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.99.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGL    LYNCH GROUP HOLDING LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $1.70

Jarden rates ((LGL)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden has been left disappointed by Lynch Group's first half earnings guidance of $13-15m, which reflects a -42% miss to the broker's estimated at the midpoint. The broker highlights the external and operational issues underpinning guidance should be transitory. 

The broker lowers its own full year earnings forecast -26% and net profit forecast -56% to reflect operating challenges in Australia. Jarden believes China remains a material opportunity for Lynch Group.

The rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy and the target price decreases to $2.60 from $3.70.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.905
If LGL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.59 cents and EPS of 16.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.47.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.05 cents and EPS of 39.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.26.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.00

Shaw and Partners rates ((SMP)) as Buy (1) –

SmartPay's September-half result slightly outpaced Shaw's forecasts, posting a big beat on cash flow.

The broker notes top line grow and margins are starting to accelerate, with gross profit sharply surprising to the upside, and expects momentum to continue into the March half.

Australian acquiring revenue grew 120% year on year in the September half.

Buy rating retained. Target price inches up to $1.63 from $1.57.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.63
If SMP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.15.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.15

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

As part of a bid to cut emissions over time via incentives to certain carbon-emitting facilities, the Federal government is aiming to support reduction targets by releasing a draft bill on proposed Safeguard Mechanism reforms.

The analyst expects a -1.5-6% valuation impact on Santos, which has exposure via nine facilities.

However, the scale of the impact is thought to be reliant on the baseline emissions decline trajectory, and cost of procuring Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) to meet shortfall obligations, explains the broker.

Overweight and $8.05 target retained.

This report was published on November 29, 2022.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: $0.9
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 27.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.24 cents and EPS of 108.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 123.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.95 cents and EPS of 63.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of -15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $35.71

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Overweight (2) –

As part of a bid to cut emissions over time via incentives to certain carbon-emitting facilities, the Federal government is aiming to support reduction targets by releasing a draft bill on proposed Safeguard Mechanism reforms.

The analyst expects a -1.0-2.3% valuation impact on Woodside Energy, which has exposure via seven facilities.

However, the scale of the impact is thought to be reliant on the baseline emissions decline trajectory, and cost of procuring Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) to meet shortfall obligations, explains the broker.

The Overweight rating is retained and $34 target are retained.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $35.71 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.96, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 339.40 cents and EPS of 531.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 550.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 376.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 249.18 cents and EPS of 420.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 456.2, implying annual growth of -17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 331.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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