Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 30, 2023

This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APE   BSL   CAT   CBA   CGC   CU6   ERD (2)   HFR   IMM   MPL   NHF   OCA   PLT   SKC   UNI (2)   VUL   WEB  

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $12.27

Wilsons rates ((APE)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons assesses a slightly soft AGM trading update by Eagers Automotive on vehicle supply constraints, which are expected to ease. Gross margin expansion, evident from the order book, is also considered encouraging.

Demand continues to exceed supply and the order book has grown further in FY23 year-to-date, highlights the analyst, though management referred to broad-based cost pressures. FY23 sales guidance was reaffirmed.

The broker's earnings upgrades in FY24 are offset by adjustments to valuation of minority interests. The target falls to $12.99 from $13.10. Market Weight.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $12.99 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: $0.72
If APE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 110.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.9, implying annual growth of -8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.80 cents and EPS of 103.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.5, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $19.20

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

BlueScope Steel is hosting a site tour of North American operations. Jarden believes North America is likely to experience the greatest growth option versus other operations, stemming from the increased capital committed over the last few years.

North America represented 48% of group FY22 EBIT and the broker expects this will surpass 50% in the medium term.

North Star is progressing well with the ramp up towards 3mtpa, which the broker notes can generate free cash flow even at the bottom of the cycle.

Meanwhile, the recycling & materials operations will offer greater control over managing the quality and supply of scrap, and the company can leverage the non-ferrous component to lower raw material costs for North Star.

Overweight rating maintained. Target is $23.50.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $19.20 Difference: $4.3
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.62, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.7, implying annual growth of -56.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 190.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.1, implying annual growth of -21.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAT    CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAT)) as Buy (1) –

Catapult International's FY23 result was broadly in line with expectations. Top-line growth was driven predominantly by subscription revenue, offset by declining capital revenue as the company completes a transition to a subscription-based model.

Significantly, the company has guided that it will be cash flow positive in FY24 without the need to raise equity.

 Canaccord Genuity believes the stock price materially under-rates its long-term opportunity. A strong share price performance is expected as investors become comfortable with the revenue growth versus modest cost growth.

Buy rating and $1.50 target maintained.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.49
If CAT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.35.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.65.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $99.57

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Neutral (3) –

CommBank has announced a new version of its app and new business notice deposit accounts, showcasing its AI capabilities. Jarden observes the presentation highlighted innovation with retention and customer engagement in focus.

From a financial perspective the most meaningful announcements were new 48-hour and seven-day business notice deposit accounts that offer rates of 0.75% and 1.50% above at-call savings accounts.

The broker will be assessing whether this new product elicits any competitive response from other banks and if it puts downward pressure on sector margins.

The Neutral rating and $98 target are unchanged.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $99.57 Difference: minus $1.57 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.18, suggesting downside of -10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 443.00 cents and EPS of 590.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 594.7, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 443.00 cents and EPS of 562.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 571.6, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.61

Wilsons rates ((CGC)) as Market Weight (3) –

Costa Group has confirmed growing conditions improved and the international segment earnings are expected to increase. A record financial result is expected from this division amid strong results in both Morocco and China.

Citrus is expected to generate virtually all its earnings in the second half of the year. Mushroom category yields have increased, with improvement at Monarto offsetting the lower output at Mernda.

Wilsons expects 2023 international EBITDAS will be up 7%. First half produce EBITDAS is expected to be up 17%. The broker retains a Market Weight rating and $2.44 target.

This report was published on May 26, 2023.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 83.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.78

Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –

Clarity Pharmaceuticals' SeCuRE trial can progress to Cohort 2, notes Wilsons, following the release of positive early data. Even with the lower dose used in Cohort 1, there is already evidence of clinical benefit.

The trial is assessing the identification and treatment of metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) using Clarity’s 64Cu/67Cu-SAR-bisPSMA targeted copper theranostic pair.

Management confirmed there were no dose-limiting toxicities associated with 67Cu in Cohort 1 patients. This is important, according to the broker, as it represents the first safety data provided for 67Cu-SAR-bisPSMA, and hence, in the prostate cancer population.

Overweight rating and $1.22 target price retained.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.445
If CU6 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 results were ahead of expectations. Initial guidance for FY24 revenue is between NZ$175-180m and Eroad has reiterated its aim to achieve free cash flow neutrality in FY25 and be positive in FY26.

Investors are focused on the reduction in the cash flow burn, and Canaccord Genuity notes four items are required for the reduction, including more than 6% organic gross profit growth in FY24, a reduction in operating expenditure, unwinding of 3G to 4G accelerated expenditure and normalising inventory.

The broker retains a Buy rating and NZ$$2.55 target.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Current Price is $0.56. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.41.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.15.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ERD)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 results were in line with guidance. Eroad reported net unit growth of more than 18,500 to 227,000 contracted units. Jarden observes the company is in a transition phase, with initiatives underway to manage the cost base and reinvigorate growth.

Balance sheet risks are elevated, given limited capacity and another year of negative cash flow. Moreover, the business is yet to provide sufficient confidence that it can execute on its North American plans.

Jarden believes the issues outweigh the potential value gap and retains a Neutral rating. Target is lowered to NZ$1.00 from NZ$1.20.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Current Price is $0.56. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.10.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.50.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HFR    HIGHFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HFR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Highfield Resources has secured funding of $25m via a convertible note from mining investors EMR and Tectonic. Canaccord Genuity explains this provides the ability to  maintain momentum at Muga and continue with pre-construction procurement and early works.

Canacccord Genuity notes further discussions need to be concluded with potential strategic and financial investors.

Meanwhile, potash prices have eased to EUR500-550/t although well above the long-term price forecast of US$400/t which underpins the broker's valuation and earnings estimates.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $1.66.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.905
If HFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 152% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.63.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMM    IMMUTEP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.30

Wilsons rates ((IMM)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights new positive data released for the Insight-003 study in 1L non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study is evaluating Efti (Immutep's lead asset) in combination with anti-PD-1 therapy (i.e. Keytruda) as well as doublet chemotherapy.

Strong initial response rates indicate more than two thirds of patients have tumours that are responding to treatment favourably, and over 90% of them have improved or stabilised as a result of the treatment.

These results are even more compelling when the PD-L1 status of treated tumours are considered, suggests the analyst. This is the cohort with lowered response to anti-PD-1 monotherapy.

Overweight rating and target price of $0.91 are retained.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.605
If IMM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 198% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.26.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.59

Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Overweight (2) –

March quarter industry data revealed the backdrop for claims for private health insurers remains supportive although policy growth has slowed to 2%.

Gross margins are strong and hospital claim payments per person are in line with pre-pandemic levels, despite four years of intervening inflation.

The broker envisages scope for some structural hospital savings to be obtained, despite hospital activity recovering and higher inflation indexation occurring. Overweight rating retained for Medibank Private with a target of $3.80.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.21
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting downside of -2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF    NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $8.46

Jarden rates ((NHF)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

March quarter industry data revealed the backdrop for claims for private health insurers remains supportive although policy growth has slowed to 2%.

Gross margins are strong and hospital claim payments per person are in line with pre-pandemic levels, despite four years of intervening inflation.

The broker envisages scope for some structural hospital savings to be obtained, despite hospital activity recovering and higher inflation indexation occurring. Rating for nib Holdings is cut to Neutral from Overweight. Target is $8.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting downside of -9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 38.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 40.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OCA    OCEANIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $0.74

Jarden rates ((OCA)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

FY23 results were broadly in line with estimates. Jarden found overall sales activity disappointing, factoring in a more conservative outlook for FY24.

Dividends are also expected to come under downward pressure and the broker notes Oceania Healthcare is unwilling to move to a cash-linked dividend at this stage.

The company has a significant number of traditional care beds but has made strong progress on care suites and the broker highlights the importance of this in terms of profitability and analysis against asset values.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target price is lifted to NZ$0.72 from NZ$0.66.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Current Price is $0.74. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLT    PLENTI GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.43

Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1) –

FY23 results for Plenti Group were broadly in line with management's April 18 trading update, observes Wilsons.

Management expects 39.4% year-on-year revenue growth, as well as robust profit growth in FY24 despite the difficult macroeconomic backdrop. The group's medium-term $3.0bn loan target was retained.

The broker's target falls to $1.20 from $1.30 after allowing for additional investment in technology and changes in the loan book.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.77
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.49.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.13

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Buy (1) –

SkyCity Entertainment has updated guidance, with a -5% downgrade to second half EBITDA implied by the NZ$300-310m range.

No material update was provided on the regulatory issues, other than an accounting assessment is underway on the potential fine for Adelaide, which Jarden estimates at -$50m in FY24.

Electronic gaming machines are performing strongly in Auckland while tables are weak. The broker trims operating forecasts and retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to NZ$3.20 from NZ$3.40.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Current Price is $2.13. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.98 cents and EPS of 16.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.72 cents and EPS of 17.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.90

Jarden rates ((UNI)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Universal Store has experienced a slowdown in second half trading, continuing the broader theme of the sector, Jarden notes.

Industry discussions suggest the under-35 consumer has shut their wallet throughout April and May, putting pressure on apparel, general merchandise and footwear categories in particular.

Specifically,  the company's update also revealed delays in four store openings and signs market share gains may be moderating. Jarden downgrades to Overweight from Buy and reduces the target to $4.50 from $6.60.

Net profit forecasts are reduced by -19-25% for FY23-24. Jarden transfers coverage to Ben Gilbert and Kseniya Chadayeva.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $1.6
If UNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 38.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons slashes its target price for Universal Store to $4.20 from $7.00 following an update which revealed a faster-than-expected downturn in trading conditions.

In addition, updated guidance for sales, gross margins and earnings (EBIT) missed the broker's forecasts by -6.4%, -130bps and -20%, respectively. It's felt the gross margin miss was due to increased promotional activity and smaller customer basket sizes.

As the key drivers of lower guidance appear to be macro-related, the analysts retain a positive outlook partly based on the store pipeline and an experienced management team. Overweight.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $1.3
If UNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.40 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VUL    VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VUL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Vulcan Energy Resources has completed a $109m raising to secure its zero carbon lithium project and begin placing long lead orders. Canaccord Genuity remodels the stock to split its valuation into three business units: geothermal (SPV1); lithium extraction plant (SPV1); and central lithium plant (SPV2).

The broker believes the company is well-placed to progress towards full financing in the March quarter of 2024 and maintains a Speculative Buy rating. Target is lowered to $12.50 from $15.00.

This report was published on May 25, 2023.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $8.61
If VUL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.93.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.52.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $7.46

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Neutral (3) –

Webjet provided a strong FY23 result, beating estimates and delivering a "significantly improved" net cash position, Jarden observes. Jarden increases FY24 underlying estimates for net profit by 14% to reflect the stronger results in a positive start to FY24.

The broker is becoming more positive on the stock and envisages scope for multiple re-rating via growth of WebBeds through the increased penetration of key markets, higher productivity and share gains.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.15 from $6.20.

This report was published on May 24, 2023.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $0.69
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 12.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 747.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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