Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 16, 2023

This story features EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.30

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

After offering site visits to Ernest Henry and Cowal as well as the investor briefing, Jarden assesses Evolution Mining has presented a better outlook. The new debt amortisation profile is far more aligned with the capital outlook.

Meanwhile, Red Lake is moving towards a greater share of capital allocation and, thus, beginning to realise the strategic value of its processing capacity. Yet, Jarden moderates its forecasts and expects limited production growth over the medium term.

Jarden continues to question the fit of Mungari over the longer term and whether new opportunities may prompt management to reconsider capital allocated to the asset. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $3.12 from $3.08.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.12 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of -20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 88.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GLN    GALAN LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.94

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GLN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Galan Lithium expects to release this stage 1 definitive feasibility study for HMW over coming weeks. Canaccord Genuity believes this will firm up project expenditure and has increased its capex/opex assumptions for stage 1 to US$80m.

The stage 2 DFS is expected to be completed in August 2023 with capex forecast at US$390m.

The broker adjusts its modelling to account for the recent capital raising of $31.5m and amid minor revisions to HMW expenditure lowers the target to $3.00 from $3.30. Speculative Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $2.055
If GLN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 217% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 94.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 94.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GT1    GREEN TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GT1)) as Buy (1) –

Green Technology Metals has a maiden resource for Root Bay, Ontario, of 8.1mt at 1.32% lithium. Canaccord Genuity is surprised as drilling only began in February but believes this signals a "huge boost" to the potential economic development of the project.

The prospect also remains open along strike to the east and west as well as down dip beyond 200m. The broker points out Root Bay was originally a gold prospect but having targeted the pegmatites the company quickly found lithium.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is $1.90.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $1.235
If GT1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.31.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMM    IMMUTEP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.30

Wilsons rates ((IMM)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons is pleased the funding overhang has been lifted for Immutep, with the timing earlier than expected. Now there is adequate capital, the broker does not believe there is any impediment to the share price momentum stemming from positive clinical read-outs.

Wilsons has not changed its view of how Efti can expand and boost market dominance of anti-PD-1 blockbusters such as Keytruda in large oncology markets.

Overweight rating maintained. Target edges down to $0.90 from $0.91.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.6
If IMM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.14.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.69.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLL    LEO LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.95

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LLL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Leo Lithium has a $106m strategic equity placement with Goulamina joint venture partner, Ganfeng. The placement is subject to Chinese regulatory approval and the execution of a binding cooperation agreement.

Canaccord Genuity notes the dilution of the placement is offset by cash and a positive adjustment to risk following the removal of the funding overhang. As a result, the broker highlights the significant upside potential to valuation, given the possibility of an enlarged stage 2.

Speculative Buy rating retained.Target price rises to $2.45 from $2.20.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $1.495
If LLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGV    MUSGRAVE MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MGV)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Musgrave Minerals has a number of intercepts from the Cue gold project in Western Australia, amid infill drilling to convert resources to indicated and extending known mineralisation ahead of a prefeasibility study for stage 2 in early 2024.

Given the grade of the intercepts is consistently greater than the resource grade, Canaccord Genuity believes this bodes well for potential increases in overall ounces.

Speculative Buy rating with a $0.50 target maintained.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.195
If MGV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.86

Wilsons rates ((MYX)) as Overweight (1) –

Mayne Pharma has noted the women's health portfolio is looking like providing a US$86.8m annual revenue run rate while dermatology is tracking to a US$60m ARRR. Wilsons assesses this guidance implies its second half estimates are probably conservative.

Still, the company needs to deliver consistent month-on-month growth into the later half of 2023 to hit the broker's forecasts, considered feasible given the traction achieved since January. Overweight rating and $4.43 target maintained.

This report was published on June 9, 2023.

Target price is $4.43 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.57
If MYX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of minus 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.95.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.27.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $15.29

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Orica's recent share price decline has become a concern for investors and suspects the stock may have been affected by the recent underperformance of defensive stocks relative to non-defensive peers.

Yet the uptick in interest rates should begin to benefit defensive stocks such as Orica, particularly as it is trading slightly below the long-run average PE relative to the market.

Meanwhile, there is positive news on gas supply and falling ammonia input prices. The broker assesses the strength of spot ammonium nitrate pricing, despite imports, highlights the underlying growth in commodities-driven demand for explosives.

Jarden reiterates an Overweight rating and $17.15 target.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: $1.86
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 77.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.0, implying annual growth of 115.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 47.30 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.0, implying annual growth of 22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $13.13

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes settlement activity shows signs of improvement yet while in NSW volumes achieve the first month of growth since early 2022 it is hesitant regarding the outlook for the near term given higher interest rates will likely weigh on the property market.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and $12.50 target for Pexa Group to reflect the downside risk to FY23 EPS and potential for further delays in the UK amid cost escalation.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting upside of 22.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 111.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RXL    ROX RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RXL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes continued strong high-grade results from Youanmi gold project, Western Australia. Indicated resources are 1.3m ounces at 3.3g/t gold, representing 40% of total ounces.

A development program focused on the Link and Kathleen areas is designed to convert inferred resources to indicated with the latest assays showing 2m at 18.5g/t from 450m, 6m at 5.3g/t and 3.4m at 4.5g/t.

The broker retains a $0.60 target and a Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.235
If RXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.66

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage on Superloop with an Overweight rating and $0.81 target, noting it has successfully diversified the business and acquired scale in consumer segments having been largely a wholesale-focused provider in the past.

The balance sheet is expected to be net neutral in FY24 and having staff offshore, predominantly Sri Lanka, provides flexibility in operations and an ability to pull cost levers should price competition intensify.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.155
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.08.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ZIP    ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.48

Jarden rates ((ZIP)) as Neutral (3) –

Zip Co has proposed a liability management exercise, inviting eligible existing noteholders to convert into ordinary shares at a conversion price of $12.0567 and receive a cash amount that will be up to $17.4m in aggregate.

If completed management expects the transaction to be cash neutral and accretive to shareholders. Jarden notes the exercise is similar to one completed in December 2022.

The company has also reaffirmed guidance and expects positive cash EBTDA for the first half of FY24. The broker retains a Neutral rating and $0.70 target.

This report was published on June 9, 2023.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.22
If ZIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 64.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 43.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -28.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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