Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 24, 2023

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   AIA   ALU   AMP   CAJ   DUR   GNC   GQG   RPM   SDF (2)   SHL   SVW   VEA  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $3.92

Wilsons rates ((A2M)) as Overweight (1) –

An encouraging update from a2 Milk Co at its recent annual general, says Wilsons, as the company reiterated full year earnings guidance despite challenging trading conditions. 

While trading conditions remain tough, particularly given the lower birth rate in China on top of elevated competition, Wilsons points out a recent increase in marriages in China does offer some optimism for future birth rates.

The Overweight rating and target price of $5.47 are retained.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $1.55
If A2M meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 35.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 22.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.39

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Neutral (3) –

New Zealand's regulator ComCom is scheduled to issue a final decision on input methodologies in December.

Jarden observes these will create the benchmark against which Auckland International Airport's returns will be measured for years to come. A review of the airport's PSE4 pricing is due to begin in January with a draft due in the June quarter.

After reviewing the input methodologies draft, Jarden cuts its weighted average cost of capital forecasts and lowers long-term run targets.

The broker conjectures that slower capital expenditure spend could result in the avoidance of an equity raise and a reduction in net debt by FY27.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to NZ$7.53 from NZ$7.90.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Current Price is $7.39. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.14 cents and EPS of 16.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALU    ALTIUM

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $44.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALU)) as Neutral (3) –

Management noted the significant revenue opportunity for Altium Enterprise Solutions at Altium's investor day, and Goldman Sachs envisages upside risks to its forecasts in this area should customer growth/ARR begin to scale.

The broker agrees momentum continues for Designer Pro/Enterprise Solutions with the company targeting an additional US$1.6bn in revenue by 2030.

Other highlights from the investor day, for the analysts, included the potential for market share gains in mid-market and growth in Octopart driven by AI.

 The Neutral rating and $47 target are unchanged.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $44.23 Difference: $2.77
If ALU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.41, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.35 cents and EPS of 96.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.92 cents and EPS of 120.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.5, implying annual growth of 24.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.90

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

After a sharp compression in AMP's net interest margin in the September quarter as the company aggressively pursued mortgage growth, the company is now addressing a structural funding mix problem that has exposed it to higher deposit competition, observes Jarden.

The company has announced a SME digital back to help alleviate medium term funding costs and while Jarden considers the move to be sensible, the broker observes it is long-dated with benefits unlikely to materialise before FY27.

EPS forecasts are at risk and net interest margins remain under pressure, says the broker, but expects AMP's cost-outs should provide a cushion.

EPS forecasts fall -3.7% in FY23; -14.3% in FY24; and -9% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1.05 from $1.22.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.15
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 18.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((CAJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Capitol Health's AGM trading update for the months to October 31 revealed very strong top-line growth that appears to have outpaced consensus forecasts, observes Jarden.

While massive strength at the top line was thanks largely to the FMIG acquisition, Jarden observes the underlying run rate was also a beat.

Earnings (EBITDA) margins improved 19.2% on June 30, as expected, but triggered a relief rally in the share price given disappointing margin performances from competitors, observes the broker.

Staff shortages were the big plus on this front, attrition hitting a four-year low.

The industry continues to experience headwinds to organic growth and Jarden expects growth will moderate for Capitol Health as well.

Neutral rating and 26c target price retained.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.055
If CAJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 43.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 30.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUR    DURATEC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.23

Moelis rates ((DUR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on Duratec, describing the stock as "tech-enabled asset maintenance experts with specialist defense and engineering credentials". 

The broker points out as a preferred contractor, Duratec's specialist defense asset maintenance contracts underpin its near-term opportunities. The company is looking to double its recurring work profile, which currently accounts for 13% of revenue. 

Moelis sees robust market tailwinds for Duratec. The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.50.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.27
If DUR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $7.75

Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Market Weight (3) –

Another exceptional full year result from GrainCorp, according to Wilsons, notwithstanding a year-on-year earnings decline. Earnings declined -28% year-on-year to $526m, while agribusiness earnings declined -35%, but lower volumes were offset by higher margins. 

The broker expects a potential declining earnings profile in coming years may deter investors, but Wilsons likes the clear and logical growth strategy.

It appears GrainCorp has lost market share in recent years, but Wilsons continues to see a favourable dynamic for oilseeds processing.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.74 from $6.72.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of -53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.2, implying annual growth of -11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as No Rating (-1) –

Previously, GQG Partners made a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of Pacific Current Group ((PAC)) for $11/share by way of a scheme of arrangement, following completion of due diligence.

The board of Pacific Current Group has now concluded the transaction process will not result in a binding offer that can be recommended to shareholders.

GQG Partners failed to gain support from the target's largest shareholder River Capital, a condition of GQG's offer.

No rating or target was provided by the broker.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Current Price is $1.42. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 47.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 15.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 13.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RPM    RPM AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $0.09

Moelis rates ((RPM)) as Buy (1) –

Some updates to RPM Automotive's guided financials following receipt of a $3.1m payment related to a software agreement. The company now guides to revenue of $110-115m and underlying earnings of $21.5-23.5m. 

With the payment appearing to be a one-off, there is minimal impact to Moelis' valuation. The broker is anticipating full year earnings growth of $8.7m, supported by this payment. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.04 are retained.

This report was published on November 13, 2023.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $1.946
If RPM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2070% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.88.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 5.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.70.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF    STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((SDF)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs approves of Steadfast Group's strategic rationale in acquiring 70% of Sure insurance for an initial -$148.8m. It's thought the transaction will leverage both Steadfast's network and the target's underwriting/claims platform to price and manage claims effectively.

There's also potential for two further earn-out payments of – $28.8m and -$102.5m, respectively, based on targeted achievements for FY24 and FY25 normalised earnings.

Management upgraded FY24 guidance primarily to reflect the Sure acquisition and equity raise of $310m. The raising included an underwritten $280m institutional placement and non-underwritten share purchase plan to raise up to $30m.

The $5.90 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.47
If SDF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.33, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 38.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SDF)) as Overweight (2) –

Steadfast Group will buy a 70% stake in Sure Insurance, a privately owned underwriting agency in the regional Queensland home and contents market for -$150m cash upfront.

Jarden observes Sure is on a strong and sustainable growth path, Steadfast Group forecasting 88% growth on the current base to FY25.

Earnings accretion is estimated at 1% in FY24 and 2% in FY26 so Jarden says Steadfast is relying on strong upside post FY25 to deliver a material uptick.

In the meantime, the company is trading at a -5% discount to its 10-year average, observes the broker. Given strong rate momentum, the broker believes EPS risks remain to the upside.

EPS forecasts rise 0.5% in FY24; 3.2% in FY25; and 2.1% in FY26. Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $6.20 from $6.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.77
If SDF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.33, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 38.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $28.79

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Sonic Healthcare's four-month AGM trading update revealed a strong earnings skew to the second half, suggesting downside risks to the company's FY24 EBITDA guidance as inflation starts to bite, observes Jarden.

The broker finds it unsettling to be so dependent on the phasing in of profit enhancing strategies and acquisition accretion to meet guidance.

Staff shortages, wage increases, absenteeism and cost inflation continue to dog the sector and it appears Sonic Healthcare may finally be succumbing to these as high-margin covid revenue disappears.

Management announced the purchase of Pathology Watch for US$130m, which Jarden believes will hasten the company's shift to digital pathology and build a more accessible platform for the company's anatomical practices, but observes it is long-dated.

EPS forecasts fall -4.4% in FY24; -0.8% in FY25; and -0.6% in FY26. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $29.90 from $30.74.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $29.90 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: $1.11
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.29, suggesting upside of 22.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 103.20 cents and EPS of 135.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of -4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 104.70 cents and EPS of 159.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.5, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVW    SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $32.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((SVW)) as Buy (1) –

Seven Group has raised FY24 EBIT guidance to high-single-digit or low-teen growth from high-single-digit growth which compares to forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus for 10% growth.

The increased guidance stemmed from a brighter outlook for Industrial Services which includes WesTrac, Coates Hire and the 72.6% stake in Boral ((BLD)), explains Goldman Sachs.

The broker's Buy rating and $31 target for Seven Group are retained.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If SVW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.15, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.8, implying annual growth of 27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 265.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.3, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA    VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $3.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((VEA)) as Neutral (3) –

At Viva Energy's investor day, management highlighted the significant opportunity to increase non-fuel earnings through integration of Quick-Service Restaurants (QSR) and upgraded store formats. Earnings volatility from refining would be reduced as a result.

Over the next five years, Viva is targeting $500m of earnings (EBITDA) via the Convenience & Mobility and Commercial & Industrial businesses. 

Goldman Sachs envisages earnings even beyond this target should meaningful sales and margins improvement be delivered for the company's On The Run stores, as a result of re-branding and roll-out.

The broker's $3.29 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on November 17, 2023.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.24
If VEA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of -37.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 44.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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