Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 29, 2023

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   BSL   CAA   CLV   DEG   GMD   GOR (2)   HLS   HUB   IPH   JHX   KAR   LOV   MIN   MND (2)   MPL   PPS   PXA   RED   SLR   SVW   TNE   WEB  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.65

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on a number of emerging domestic gold stocks, including Alkane Resources. Of these stocks, Moelis indicated a preference for where business is improving, namely Alkane Resources, Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)).

Alkane Resources is currently reinvesting in its Tomingley asset to establish production at the nearby Roswell and San Antonio mines, alongside processing plant updates. These activities should support an extended mine life to 2031.

Moelis expects material growth for Alkane Resources as it emerges from this period of reinvestment. The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.05.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.405
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $20.39

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

BlueScope Steel's December-half trading update reiterated guidance, narrowing it to the top half of its target range.

The end of the auto-workers strike (and the beginning of higher US steel speads) drove the higher confidence forecasts, advises Jarden, assuring near-term earnings with the risk to the upside. 

On the ESG front, Jarden observes the company's safety metrics continue to lag its long-term average and will most likely require higher prioritisation; is making progress on net zero targets; and met governance expectations with its seamless chair transiation. The broker appreciates the possibilities from the development of its Port Kembla land bank.

EPS forecasts rise for FY25. Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $24.90 from $24.50.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $20.39 Difference: $4.51
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.96, suggesting downside of -7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 180.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.8, implying annual growth of -19.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 206.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.9, implying annual growth of 12.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAA    CAPRAL LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $8.70

Taylor Collison rates ((CAA)) as Outperform & Accumulate (2) –

Taylor Collison has initiated coverage on aluminium extruder Capral with an Outperform rating and a $10.97 target price.

While the broker expects a macro slowing from here to 2025, it expects the -18% national structural "underbuild" will supporting housing prices and construction, and points to the new home bonus of $3bn for the states, and a program to build 1.2m new homes with solid volume forecast to come to market by the end of FY24.

Taylor Collison considers the shares to be undervalued and says the market has underestimated the growth potential in its industrial division and the likely pace of the residential construction rebound by early FY25.

The broker says the company is also to take advantage of the 15,000T solar market through a low carbon aluminium offering and cladding rectification. This also places the company in a better position should a carbon border adjustment mechanism be introduced and the broker expects Capral is also likely to benefit from the covid-inspired fall in imports (although some reversion to the norm is likely).

The company holds zero net debt, $41m in cash and a $80m financing facility, putting it in a good position to pitch for market dominance, says the broker.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $10.97 Current Price is $8.70 Difference: $2.27
If CAA meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 168.10 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 19.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 136.30 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLV    CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $0.86

Taylor Collison rates ((CLV)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage of encapsulated Docosahexaeonic Acid (used in infant formula) manufacturer Clover with an Outperform rating and 95c target price.

The broker observes changes to the regulatory regime in China and the European Union, increasing the levels of DHA required in infant formula, augur well for the company and could result in a 30% increase in revenue by FY26.

Taylor Collison also notes the company is in a low cycle, offering an opportunity for entry, and is continuing to take market share despite being a 20% more expensive premium product.

In the event of a slowing global birth rate, the broker believes the company has wiggle room to drop costs, making it a formidable competitor in a tough quality-sensitive environment.

And did we mention M&A? The broker considers it to be an attractive target.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.09
If CLV meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.64.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DEG    DE GREY MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((DEG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts for ASX-listed Gold sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect gold pricing updates and company specific changes.

The Neutral rating is unchanged for De Grey Mining. Target $1.40.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.095
If DEG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 34.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 130.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.77

Moelis rates ((GMD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on a number of emerging domestic gold stocks, including Genesis Minerals. Of these stocks, Moelis indicated a preference for where business is improving, namely Alkane Resources ((ALK)), Genesis Minerals and Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)).

Following material change over the last two years, Genesis Minerals has collated assets and resources belonging to five companies, minimising required capital and maximum return potential.

The broker initiates coverage with a Buy rating and target price of $2.00.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.23
If GMD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts for ASX-listed Gold sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect gold pricing updates and company specific changes.

The Buy rating is unchanged for Gold Road Resources. Target $2.00.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.15
If GOR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((GOR)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on a number of emerging domestic gold stocks, including Gold Road Resources. Of these stocks, Moelis indicated a preference for where business is improving, namely Alkane Resources ((ALK)), Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)).

Gold Road Resources' Gruyere asset remains a high margin asset, "in its prime", says Moelis. The broker finds Gold Road Resources demands a relative, but justified, premium, noting the asset is largely priced in. 

The broker initiates with a Hold rating and target price of $1.90.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.05
If GOR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLS)) as No Rating (-1) –

Healius's September-quarter earnings (EBITDA) update missed consensus forecasts by -21% to -22% as earnings (EBIT) disappointed by -73% to -78% as covid pathology volumes plunged. Management advised earnings would be skewed to the second half.

The company announced a $187m equity raising to reduce debt, lenders promising to waive the gearing covenant for the December half as the company cuts total bank facilities to $750m from $1bn.

The raising comprised a fully underwritten one for 3.65 pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer of $187m (representing 27.4% of existing shares on issue) and a retail entitlement offer yet to be specified.

The $1.20 offer price is at a -34.6% discount to the previous day's trading price. No dividends will be provided in FY24.

Goldman Sachs is not rated on Healius. 

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Current Price is $1.42. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 29.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 144.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $32.95

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Neutral (3) –

Hub24's 2023 Investor Day pleased Jarden, the broker highlighting the company's tech and data intiatives.

On the downside, the broker observes platform rate-card revisions to a lower variable fee mix reduces the company's market leverage, and the broker expects one-off institutional mandate migration costs will affect FY24 net profit after tax.

As a result, the broker surmises the benefits of initiatives will build slowly.

Otherwise, higher institutional flows provide an up-kick to the broker's FY24 EPS. EPS forecasts rise 1.7% in FY24; fall -4.5% in FY25 (to reflect one-off costs); and rise 0.4% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $32.95 from $31.90.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $32.95 Current Price is $32.95 Difference: $0
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.66, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.90 cents and EPS of 79.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.9, implying annual growth of 73.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 45.60 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.0, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $6.67

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

IPH plans to buy ROBIC for $126m comprising $76m cash and $41m scrip, representing roughly 2% of shares on issue advises Goldman Sachs.

An earn-out threshold is included (roughly ROBIC's earnings in the year to March 2023) and the broker expects the deal will be EPS accretive in its first year.

The company's leverage ratio will exceed its target range as a result but management advised it was happy to make temporary exceptions for acquisitions.

Buy rating reiterated given the company's improving organic growth and undemanding valuation. Target price steady at $8.75.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $2.08
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.29, suggesting upside of 54.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of 57.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $47.13

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Neutral (3) –

Second quarter results for James Hardie Industries demonstrated flawless management execution in the US, suggests Jarden, in the prevailing weak macroeconomic backdrop.

The company has successfully pivoted more towards new construction and national exclusive deals with America’s largest homebuilders, which continue to take share, explains the broker.

However, activity levels are slowing, note the analysts, with softer new home sales supporting an accelerating repair and remodeling (R&R) decline outlook into 2024, along with affordability issues and reduced mobility.

The $48 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $47.13 Difference: $0.87
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 232.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 236.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.2, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((KAR)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades Karoon Energy to Buy from Neutral on valuation, the broker observing the company is trading at a sharp discount to net assets.

The broker expects oil prices will remain higher over the near term and observes Karoon Energy offers lower regulatory risk compared to peers.

The company has announced the purchase of a non-operated stake in Who Dat oil & Gas project in the Gulf Of Mexico from LLOG for -US$745m via cash, a US$300m equity raise and drawn debt.

Goldman Sachs doesn't include the acquisition in its estimates but appreciates its potential to diversify earnings. Target price is $2.68.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.6
If KAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 44.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 76.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 73.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of -25.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $18.19

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Buy (1) –

Lovisa Holdings' trading update for the first 20 weeks of FY24 showed like-for-like sales missed consensus' forecasts by a decent clip but met Jarden's forecasts.

The broker observes the company is one of a handful of beneficiaries of a weaker AUD, which outweighed softer cost of goods sold while the store rollout continues apace.

The broker believes easing competition and the Chinese rollout pose strong upside risk. Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price rises to $23.20 from $21.60.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $18.19 Difference: $5.01
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.99, suggesting upside of 26.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 71.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.0, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 89.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $61.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

For Mineral Resources, the analysts stay with a Sell rating. Target $49.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $61.58 Difference: minus $12.58 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.86, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 190.00 cents and EPS of 402.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 334.9, implying annual growth of 162.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 206.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 713.7, implying annual growth of 113.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $14.29

Goldman Sachs rates ((MND)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs raises earnings (EBITDA) forecasts about 2% across FY24 to FY26 after Monadelphous Group's FY23 AGM update.

Sell rating retained, the broker asserting its thesis remains intact. Target price rises to $12.30 from $11.80.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: minus $1.99 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 24.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.2, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MND)) as Overweight (2) –

Monadelphous Group's 2023 AGM trading update broadly met forecasts, management pointing to ongoing labour-cost issues and a robust contract pipeline.

Management issued maiden revenue guidance, just shy of Jarden's forecast but implying a -3% to -6% downgrade to consensus forecasts, observes the broker.

EPS forecasts fall -3% to -4% across FY24 to FY26 as the broker moderates its expectation of new engineering and construction work (but is more positive than consensus in its construction forecasts).

Legal action with Queensland's Unity Water still dogs the company, mostly due to reputation and new contract risk, says Jarden, given insurance was in place.

Overweight rating and $14.45 target price retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $0.16
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.40 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 24.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 66.20 cents and EPS of 75.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.2, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.46

Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Overweight (2) –

Medibank Private's AGM update held few surprise, with guidance retained despite a slow start to FY24 policy growth.

Management did spy weakness emerging in discretionary extras areas as affordability pressures rose.

One-off cyber costs forecasts met guidance.

Overweight rating and $3.75 target price retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.29
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.45

Moelis rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Following a disappointing update from Praemium, Moelis has lowered its earnings outlook for the company. Praemium is not only expecting a -20% year-on-year earnings decline in the first half, but also warned capital expenditure would increase in line with wage inflation.

Much of the expense increase is associated with investment to improve and drive future initiatives, and once implemented should provide a material increase to Praemium's underlying earnings. Moelis expects the first of these benefits to arrive in the second half of FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 66 cents from 93 cents.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.21
If PPS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $11.97

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Pexa Group's Investor Day appears to have pleased Jarden, particularly on the UK front after two banks (constituting 12% to 16% market share) confirmed they would start transacting on the platform mid next year.

The broker expects a slow onboarding initially but a hastening thereafter.

EPS forecasts fall -6.6% in FY24 to reflect guidance for specified items of $16m, up from $7m; and rise 1% in FY25 and FY26.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $12.20 from $11.95.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $0.23
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.60, suggesting upside of 22.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 54.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 48.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.34

Moelis rates ((RED)) as No Rating (-1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on a number of emerging domestic gold stocks, including Red 5. Of these stocks, Moelis indicated a preference for where business is improving, namely Alkane Resources ((ALK)), Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)).

Having recently commissioned the new King of the Hills processing plant, Red 5 is set up for a long period of production and a mine life likely beyond 2037. Moelis sees strategic appeal in the region for the company.

The broker initiates with a Hold rating and target price of 35 cents.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.005
If RED meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.54.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.29.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLR    SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.06

Moelis rates ((SLR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on a number of emerging domestic gold stocks, including Silver Lake Resources. Of these stocks, Moelis indicated a preference for where business is improving, namely Alkane Resources ((ALK)), Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Silver Lake Resources.

The broker believes the primary challenges facing Silver Lake Resources is relatively short mine life across its assets and typically smaller mineral deposits. More importantly though, says Moelis, is how the company decides to spend cash given a strong balance sheet.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and target price of $1.45.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.385
If SLR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVW    SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $32.22

Goldman Sachs rates ((SVW)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs makes upward revisions to Seven Group's earnings forecasts after upgrading revenue estimates 1% to 2% across FY24 to FY26.

The revision includes updates for Beach Energy, Boral and Seven West Media and the mark to market of WesTrac and Coates.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $32.50 from $31.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $0.28
If SVW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.15, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 214.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.8, implying annual growth of 27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 265.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.3, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $15.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((TNE)) as Buy (1) –

TechnologyOne's FY23 result largely met consensus forecasts, a -$2m expense on a non-acquisition holding it back from a beat, advises Goldman Sachs.

The broker observes the UK arm appears to have hit an inflection point, recording growth of 52% and strong local government and education wins.

The company also brought forward its $500m annual recurring revenue target to FY25 from FY26, but the broker is happy with current forecasts given FY24 will be the first year not to enjoy the "cloud flip" tailwind.

Buy rating reiterated. Target price eases -1% to $18.05 to reflect higher amortisation.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: $2.94
If TNE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 42.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $6.66

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (2) –

Webjet's September-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced consensus' forecasts by roughly 4% and Jarden's forecast by 6%, the outlook suggesting a 2% upgrade to consensus at the midpoint, advises the broker.

WebBed drove the beat, EBITDA landing 9% above consensus, the business delivering strong margins. The performance of the online travel agency (OTA) fell shy of forecasts.

The company closed the half with net cash of $634m, up $120m on the previous September half.

While the first half was strong, the fact no trading updates were provided nor longer term forecasts, suggests to Jarden the second half could be weaker.

Overweight rating and $8.15 target retained for now.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.49
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 723.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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