Weekly Reports | Jan 25 2024
This story features APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APM
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((APM)) Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A disappointing first half update from APM Human Services International amid persistent low unemployment, with the company reporting net profits of $55m, representing a -36% year-on-year decline and a -30% miss to Canaccord Genuity's expectations.
As per the broker, the miss was explained by reduced client flows in key high-margin employment services, alongside a tight labour market for health professionals.
Despite this, Canaccord Genuity has lifted its second half revenue expectations to $2.3bn from $2.1bn, anticipating growth in North America. The company expects organic growth in the same region from new contracts.
The rating is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy and the target price decreases to $1.35 from $2.12.
CAR GROUP LIMITED ((CAR)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
In a review of its online classifieds coverage, sparked by a change in lead analyst, Jarden noted market expectations for CAR Group's US execution may have been overdone.
The broker believes CAR Group has been worthy of a re-rating over the past 12 months, but now feels the market has pivoted from not pricing in a US execution to factoring a bullish scenario.
Jarden anticipates 12% revenue and 14% earnings compound annual growth rates over the three years to FY26, as a base case.
The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral with a target price of $27.50.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
As part of research penned on January 14, Jarden downgraded its rating for Woodside Energy to Underweight from Neutral after rolling forward the valuation by a year to January 1, 2024.
By performing this roll forward, the analyst removed -$3.40/share in dividend payments made by the company. As value accretion for the company's portfolio was insufficient to offset the dividend payment, the target was reduced to $29 from $30.50.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downgrade | |||||
| 1 | APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 2 | CAR GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 3 | WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALD | Ampol | $35.40 | Goldman Sachs | 37.10 | N/A | – |
| AMP | AMP | $0.96 | Jarden | 1.15 | 1.05 | 9.52% |
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | $26.64 | Goldman Sachs | 27.85 | 26.66 | 4.46% |
| APM | APM Human Services International | $0.75 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.35 | 2.12 | -36.32% |
| AWC | Alumina Ltd | $1.10 | Goldman Sachs | 1.39 | 1.43 | -2.80% |
| BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | $9.71 | Goldman Sachs | 9.57 | 9.35 | 2.35% |
| BHP | BHP Group | $47.37 | Goldman Sachs | 49.40 | 50.50 | -2.18% |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $5.91 | Goldman Sachs | 5.00 | 5.15 | -2.91% |
| CAR | CAR Group | $32.79 | Jarden | 27.50 | 25.10 | 9.56% |
| CBA | CommBank | $114.70 | Goldman Sachs | 82.55 | 81.64 | 1.11% |
| CEH | Coast Entertainment | $0.46 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.54 | 0.65 | -16.92% |
| CPU | Computershare | $25.68 | Jarden | 27.85 | 28.00 | -0.54% |
| CSL | CSL | $291.21 | Wilsons | 352.64 | 300.00 | 17.55% |
| DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | $3.24 | Jarden | 3.80 | 3.40 | 11.76% |
| DSE | Dropsuite | $0.31 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.40 | 0.38 | 5.26% |
| DTL | Data#3 | $9.19 | Jarden | 9.02 | 8.93 | 1.01% |
| DYL | Deep Yellow | $1.39 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.60 | 1.44 | 11.11% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $3.11 | Goldman Sachs | 3.70 | 4.20 | -11.90% |
| Jarden | 3.10 | 3.23 | -4.02% | |||
| FFM | FireFly Metals | $0.51 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.35 | 0.18 | 650.00% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $37.51 | Jarden | 36.80 | 32.95 | 11.68% |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | $2.24 | Jarden | 2.85 | 2.50 | 14.00% |
| JDO | Judo Capital | $1.11 | Goldman Sachs | 1.58 | 1.57 | 0.64% |
| JIN | Jumbo Interactive | $15.32 | Wilsons | 16.97 | 17.54 | -3.25% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.90 | Jarden | 2.30 | 2.50 | -8.00% |
| LFG | Liberty Financial | $4.35 | Jarden | 4.13 | 3.90 | 5.90% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $0.96 | Jarden | 1.19 | 1.40 | -15.00% |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | $31.81 | Goldman Sachs | 31.17 | 30.52 | 2.13% |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | $17.06 | Jarden | 14.85 | 13.80 | 7.61% |
| Wilsons | 18.40 | 15.37 | 19.71% | |||
| ORA | Orora | $2.67 | Goldman Sachs | 3.50 | 3.55 | -1.41% |
| PPM | Pepper Money | $1.26 | Jarden | 1.50 | 1.55 | -3.23% |
| PPS | Praemium | $0.37 | Moelis | 0.64 | 0.66 | -3.03% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $26.15 | Jarden | 29.10 | 27.10 | 7.38% |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | $1.20 | Jarden | 1.14 | 1.20 | -5.00% |
| PWR | Peter Warren Automotive | $2.27 | Moelis | 2.76 | 3.33 | -17.12% |
| PXA | Pexa Group | $11.29 | Jarden | 11.80 | 11.30 | 4.42% |
| REA | REA Group | $182.74 | Jarden | 155.00 | 166.00 | -6.63% |
| RMC | Resimac Group | $1.10 | Jarden | 1.03 | 1.05 | -1.90% |
| SEK | Seek | $25.46 | Jarden | 29.60 | 26.70 | 10.86% |
| STO | Santos | $7.67 | Jarden | 7.70 | 7.25 | 6.21% |
| STX | Strike Energy | $0.44 | Wilsons | 0.53 | 0.54 | -1.85% |
| SUL | Super Retail | $16.14 | Jarden | 14.50 | 12.60 | 15.08% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $14.23 | Goldman Sachs | 15.00 | 15.13 | -0.86% |
| TLX | Telix Pharmaceuticals | $11.01 | Jarden | 13.08 | 12.69 | 3.07% |
| WBC | Westpac | $23.68 | Goldman Sachs | 22.85 | 22.70 | 0.66% |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | $31.08 | Jarden | 29.00 | 30.50 | -4.92% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $293.34
Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –
In an illustration of how powerful a driver the valuation of CSL112 can be, Wilsons upgrades its target for CSL by 18% to $352.60, in the expectation of positive (soon-to-be-released) top line data for the Aegis-II Phase III trial.
The study aims to show CSL112 reduces the risk of secondary (often fatal) cardiac events in patients, after successful treatment for their first heart attack, explain the analysts.
The broker highlights that at peak sales, CSL112 could potentially contribute 12% of group EBIT and 20% of free cash flow.
The Overweight rating is unchanged.
This report was published on January 22, 2024.
Target price is $352.64 Current Price is $293.34 Difference: $59.3
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 13.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 415.53 cents and EPS of 924.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.74.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 949.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 473.56 cents and EPS of 1085.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1217.8, implying annual growth of 28.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 534.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.25
Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Overweight (2) –
In a review of its online classifieds coverage, sparked by a change in lead analyst, Jarden has stated a preference for Domain Holdings over REA Group ((REA)) as the valuation gap between the two is now seen as excessive.
While both companies have aspirations of growing yield by double digits through the cycle, but given Domain Holdings' smaller scale it is more leveraged to fluctuations in listing volumes, alongside a structurally lower margin.
Jarden expects the targeted yield growth is achieveable for both over 3-5 years.
The Overweight rating and target price of $3.80 are retained.
This report was published on January 18, 2024.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.55
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.24.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of 102.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.25.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DSE DROPSUITE LIMITED
Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.31
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –
Dropsuite's Q4 market update signals FY24 user growth is accelerating, suggests Canaccord Genuity. Gross margins lifted and the broker sees potential for further expansion.
Forecasts have been upgraded, but most importantly, probably, is this stock remains a Conviction Buy at Canaccord Genuity. As the valuation has increased, so too has the price target; 40c from 38c prior.
This report was published on January 18, 2024.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If DSE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 310.00.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 155.00.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DYL DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
Uranium – Overnight Price: $1.39
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DYL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity observes while Deep Yellow has one of the largest uranium resources on the ASX, the stock is circa 10% shorted.
The broker notes downgrades in production guidances has put a rocket under the price of uranium. Add a tight spot market and geopolitical issues and it looks like we're setting up for a "fascinating" outcome, the broker suggests.
Target price upgraded to $1.60 (from $1.44) as the broker rolls forward its modeling and makes minor adjustments. Speculative Buy rating retained.
This report was published on January 18, 2024.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.21
If DYL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.67.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.82.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PSI PSC INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED
Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.58
Jarden rates ((PSI)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –
Despite finding PSC Insurance's operations and management to be of high quality, Jarden has justified initiating on PSC Insurance with a Neutral rating due to its relative preference for AUB Group ((AUB)) and Steadfast Group ((SDF)).
The broker expects robust commercial premium rates to support PSC Insurance's near-term earnings, but is more sceptical about the ability to defend industry-leading margins as premium rates moderate.
Jarden does not expect this moderation to occur until FY25, or later, and expects PSC Insurance to experience solid gross written premium growth through FY24 at least.
The broker initiates with a target price of $4.80.
This report was published on January 17, 2024.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.22
If PSI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 25.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.24.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of 46.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APM - APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAR - CAR GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WDS - WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED