Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 21, 2024

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABB   BGL   BMN   CXO   DYL   FSG   IMD   LIC   LNW   LTR   OBM   PLS   PRU   PYC   RMS (2)   RRL   SKC   SKO   SLC   SOM   TAH   TIE   TWE  

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.70

Wilsons rates ((ABB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons remains Overweight-rated on Aussie Broadband after the loss of the wholesale internet services contract with Origin Energy ((ORG)), given ongoing solid organic growth will likely be blended with a consistent ‘cadence’ of M&A.

The removal of the contract from forecasts from October 1 this year reduces the broker's FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -8%. The target falls to $4.77 from $5.80 partly due to a lower valuation multiple.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Target price is $4.77 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1.07
If ABB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.84

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BGL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

The target for Bellevue Gold is maintained at $1.80.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.44.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.36.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $3.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BMN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

A Scoping Study for higher throughput and operating life cases at Bannerman Energy's Etango Uranium project in Namibia has been completed.

Options have been evaluated for a post ramp-up expansion in capacity to 6.7mlb per year or an extension of operating life to 27 years.

These are logical options, suggests Canaccord Genuity, given circa 225mlb of resources and Etango-8 open pit project's current capacity of 3.5mlb per year.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained and the target increased to $3.71 from $3.59.

This report was published on March 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.48
If BMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.17

Wilsons rates ((CXO)) as Underweight (5) –

Core Lithium has released interim results and announced two key management and board changes, with the resignation of non-executive director Andrea Hall and CEO Gareth Manderson set to step down.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of around $15m fell short of the $30m expected by consensus. 

The broker considers operational ‘hurdles’ on the path back to full operations at Finniss are now operational ‘mountains’ and removes any resumption in mining at Finniss from forecasts indefinitely.

Wilsons suggests Core Lithium should now be viewed as a lithium explorer, rather than a producer, (albeit with the added bonus of a constructed processing plant), unless lithium spodumene pricing rises well above the broker's forecast.

The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target falls to 10c from 15c.

In summary, Wilsons believes the prior ‘minimum viable project’ approach taken by Core Lithium to project development was incorrect. The outcome was fast-tracking of economic and technical studies, which were not sufficiently robust in the face of pricing volatility.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 82.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 165.00.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DYL    DEEP YELLOW LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $1.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DYL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Deep Yellow may now aggressively progress its 3.6mlb per year Tumas development in Namibia having successfully raised $220m and launched a $30m shareholder purchase plan.

As first production is targeted for the 2H of 2026, the analyst notes Tumas could be one of the first new-builds to come online.

Canaccord Genuity retains a Speculative Buy rating and lowers the target to $1.53 from $1.60 to allow for the capital raise.

This report was published on March 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.22
If DYL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 66.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSG    FIELD SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((FSG)) as Buy (1) –

First half results for Field Solutions on March 13 revealed an underlying earnings (EBITDA) rise of 16% on the previous corresponding period, underpinned by the Telecommunication Services business, notes Canaccord Genuity.

The broker believes the company has established momentum in its current network roll-out, thanks to recently securing $13m in funding, and expects management to execute on the target of 97 sites to be completed by FY24.

Management's FY24 underlying earnings guidance of $5.5-7m is unchanged on revenues of $69-75m.

The Speculative Buy rating and 11c target are unchanged.

This report was published on March 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.079
If FSG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 255% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.23

Jarden rates ((IMD)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden had already, cautiously, concluded Imdex's first half result suggested underlying momentum is improving. In follow-up research the analysts dare to predict the worst of the cycle might now be in the past.

With Imdex's balance sheet forecast to return to net cash in FY25, the broker sees scope for further accretive M&A, likely driven by complementary business services/products.

The share price is now trading above Jarden's price target, but the analysts are not worried and seek solace in their optimism and the fact the valuation remains below the stock's long-run average.

The Overweight rating is retained and target price is left untouched at $2.10.

This report was published on March 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting downside of -2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 42.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $15.40

Moelis rates ((LIC)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage on Lifestyle Communities with a Buy rating and $20 price target, describing the company as a high quality land-lease MHE developer and operator, supported by a highly accretive business model.

Unlike peers, explains the broker, Lifestyle Communities expenses infrastructure costs (rather than capitalising them), thereby
reducing development profit and increasing fair value gains.

The difference substantially reduces the tax burden, as fair value gains are only taxable upon sale of the asset (something which is not expected to occur).

The target market is expected to continue growing on the back of continuous growth in Australia's over-65 population.

This report was published on March 19, 2024.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $4.6
If LIC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.05, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 55.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.4, implying annual growth of -21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 87.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.1, implying annual growth of 54.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $155.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Light & Wonder delivered a strong FY23 result, with all business units reporting double-digit revenue growth, and the company has reiterated an FY25 earnings target of $1.4bn.

According to Canaccord Genuity, the market is watching for catalysts to play out, which the broker interprets as positive and indicative of early success points around the launch of the Dragon Train title into the US.

The Buy rating and target price of $175.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $155.16 Difference: $19.84
If LNW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4659.46.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2955.43.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.24

Wilsons rates ((LTR)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons raises its target for Liontown Resources by $1.00 to $1.85 and upgrades the rating to Overweight from Market weight as the funding gap to positive cashflow has now been bridged, in the broker's view.

Management has announced execution of a facility agreement for a $550m debt facility with a syndicate of leading international and domestic commercial banks and government credit agencies.

The debt facility is designed, according to the company, to ensure the Kathleen Valley Lithium project is funded through to first production and ramp-up to the 3mtpa base case.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.61
If LTR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 68.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 310.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.24

Moelis rates ((OBM)) as Buy (1) –

Ora Banda Mining's H1 result didn't quite meet expectations but Moelis is unfazed, arguing the attention should remain focused on the future.

Overall, the broker argues, H1 FY24 still demonstrated a notable improvement on H1 the prior year. Moelis sees enough evidence to suggest the turnaround is taking place.

Only minor changes have been made to forecasts. At this stage in the company's development, however, earnings are not as important, suggests the analyst.

Buy. Target 35c.

This report was published on March 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.11
If OBM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.90

Jarden rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Pilbara Minerals has accepted a pre-digital auction offer for a 5kt cargo of SC5.5, priced at US$1,106/dmt, which Jarden notes equates to around US$1,200/dmt CIF China.

This price sits around 19% above the average price of spot price ranges currently reported by the four main agencies. In the broker's view, this outcome provides strong information value on the improving underlying demand for raw lithium units.

Jarden now has increased confidence around a current turning point for the lithium market.

The Buy rating and $4.14 target for Pilbara Minerals are unchanged.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Target price is $4.14 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.24
If PLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting downside of -7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -86.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU    PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRU)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

The target for Perseus Mining is maintained at $2.45.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.45
If PRU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.90.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.67.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.08

Wilsons rates ((PYC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights recent trial data by PYC Therapeutics' peer Regulus Therapeutics continue to demonstrate a strong correlation
between PC1 (and PC2) levels and kidney function/structure in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD).

This correlation is critical, according to the broker, given it is the premise of PYC Therapeutics' ADPKD program with PYC-003.

The analysts prefer the targeted approach by PYC Therapeutics which acts specifically on the PKD1 gene. Regulus is targeting miR-17, which controls the expression of the PKD1/2 genes, and thus, both PC1 and PC2 protein.

The Overweight rating and 39c target are maintained.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.307
If PYC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 370% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.22.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Ramelius Resources, the broker has a Buy rating and $2.10 target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.485
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 23.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 70.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

A new mine plan for Ramelius Resources' Mt Magnet mine is a net positive, according to Canaccord Genuity.

Higher costs (AISC) and growth capex forecasts are offset by an improved production profile and longer mine life, explains the broker.

One potentially positive upcoming catalyst, suggest the analysts, is the feasibility study on the mill upgrade at Mt Magnet to 2.5-2.7mtpa from 1.8-2mtpa, which is currently on hold pending underground study results.

The target rises to $2.25 from $2.10 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 18, 2024.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.635
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 23.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 70.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RRL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

The target for Regis Resources is maintained at $2.50.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.69
If RRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 361.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.81

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Buy (1) –

Assuming SkyCity Entertainment becomes a regulated player, Jarden assesses a positive valuation catalyst via the New Zealand government's signaling of an in-principle decision to regulate online casino gambling.

This outcome should help soothe some investor fears the government may be looking to change gaming tax for property-based casino businesses, suggests the broker, similar to issues faced by Star Entertainment Group ((SGR)).

The NZ$2.90 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Current Price is $1.81. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 71.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.05 cents and EPS of 16.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO    SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.38

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

The year ahead will be an important one for Serko, points out Jarden, as the five-year agreement with Booking.com awaits renewal, but also, potentially, with the positive free cash flow milestone on the agenda.

First up, in order to meet FY25 financial targets, Jarden points out customer acquisitions need to accelerate. Reaching breakeven on the free cash flow measurement could well be achieved in FY25.

The broker has adopted a supportive view, and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral while adding NZ10c to its price target, now at NZ$4.95.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Current Price is $3.38. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 53.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 364.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 140.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $1.28

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons remains Overweight-rated on Superloop given the company's new scale and market traction after announcing an exclusive six-year contract to provide wholesale internet services to Origin Energy ((ORG)).

In return, Origin will be issued 9.8m shares on signing of the contract, 9.8m shares on the completion of customer migration, and up to $30m of shares on achieving specific milestones.

Around 130,000 Origin broadband customer accounts will be migrated onto the Superloop network by the 1H of FY25, at which time Wilsons forecasts total customer numbers for Superloop will rise to 655,000.

Post transition, management expects more than $19m of annualised earnings (EBITDA) from the deal, with further upside based on Origin’s rapidly growing broadband customer base.

The target rises to $1.61 from $1.17.

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.33
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM    SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.36

Wilsons rates ((SOM)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons downgrades its rating for SomnoMed to Market Weight from Overweight and slashes its target to 45c from $1.25 due to a lack of continuity in the RestAssure campaign.

The broker's changes are also in reaction to unexpected changes within senior management ranks.

The long-awaited global regulatory clearances for the new RestAssure platform are expected this year. Wilsons believes management should raise at least $15m to launch RestAssure properly and support the broader business.

The company's 1H results were consistent with prior 1Q and 2Q disclosures, note the analysts, and management reiterated FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.09
If SOM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.21.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.79

Jarden rates ((TAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Losing the architect of the TAB25 strategy could be unsettling for Tabcorp Holdings, suggests Jarden, after the announced resignation of Managing Director and CEO Adam Rytenskild. The offence: “inappropriate and offensive” language in the workplace.

The broker highlights few companies outperform amid significant executive turnover, and the focus should now fall on steadying the ship, as well as providing confidence internally that TAB25 is the right strategy.

The Overweight rating and 95c target are maintained. 

This report was published on March 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.165
If TAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.97, suggesting upside of 23.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 78.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TIE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Tietto Minerals, the broker has a Speculative Buy rating and 80c target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.19
If TIE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.28

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Overweight (2) –

Treasury Wine Estates expects any earnings contributions gained through the (potential) removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian wine imports to be minimal in FY24.

The China Ministry of Commerce has released an interim draft determination outlining a proposed removal of tariffs, with a formal decision expected before the end of March. 

Jarden considers there to be a high probability these tariffs will be removed, and that some benefits would emerge in the second half with more material upgrades emerging from FY27, anticipating significant reinvestment in China through FY25 and FY26 limits upside in these years.

The Overweight rating and target price of $12.90 are retained.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $0.62
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 57.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 50.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 71.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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