Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 27, 2024

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALQ   APM   ASM   BKW   CAJ   COI   COL   FSF   GMD   HLS   IDX   MEI (2)   NHC   ORG   RKN   SHL   WEB (2)   WOW  

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $12.91

Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

Reflecting a marked deterioration in Nuvisan's earnings over the 2H of FY24, notes Jarden, ALS Ltd has announced the purchase of the remaining 51% equity outstanding in the company will occur on March 31 for nil consideration.

The broker expects ongoing volatility for the ALS Ltd share price given a general lack of conviction around the execution of the turnaround plans for Nuvisan, and uncertainty about how/when industry conditions will improve.

Jarden's Buy rating is retained and the target eases to $13.70 from $13.80.

Back on March 22, Jarden had raised the target to $13.80 from $13.40 based on positives contained within recent reporting by Life Sciences companies.

This report was published on March 26, 2024.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.91 Difference: $0.79
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.29, suggesting downside of -4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.70 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APM    APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Healthcare – Overnight Price: $1.63

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APM)) as Buy (1) –

APM Human Services International has secured new North American contracts totalling $1bn over five years, including the Phase 3 contract in Ontario which is set to commence operations in late FY25, along with four additional Job Corps awards and multiple Workforce contracts in the US.

The new contract wins offer APM additional revenue visibility over the medium term, Canaccord Genuity suggests, and APM was well positioned to be awarded additional work given existing Ontario and Job Corps agreements.

Hold and $2.00 target retained, reflecting the takeover offer on the table.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.37
If APM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASM    AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $1.43

Petra Capital rates ((ASM)) as Hold (3) –

Petra Capital believes a Letter of Intent for US$600m in potential debt financing for Australian Strategic Materials' Dubbo critical minerals project could be a catalyst for further customer and financing discussions in North America.

While non-binding and conditional, the LOI from the United States Export-Import Bank (EXIM) potentially improves the company's funding position and covers a material portion of the -$1.68bn capex requirement, explains the broker.

The target rises to $1.54 from $1.29 and the Hold rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.11
If ASM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $27.95

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Neutral (3) –

First half earnings (EBIT) margins for Brickworks were well managed, notes Jarden, and beat consensus expectations.

Year-on-year earnings for Building Products Australia and North America increased by 48% and 50%, respectively, driven by strong price and cost management (particularly in Australia), note the analysts.

Management's recently completed five-year plant rationalisation program should lead to improving unit costs, and a freeing-up of surplus land, explains the broker, leading to a lower forward capex profile.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price eases to $28.50 from $28.75.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.95 Difference: $0.55
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.80, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 98.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of -92.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 139.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 199.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.2, implying annual growth of 576.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Jarden rates ((CAJ)) as Neutral (3) –

In an impressive outcome, in Jarden's view, the two months to the end of February this year showed pathology and imaging benefits growth rates jumping by 9.3% and 11.4%, respectively.

This performance is even more meritorious, note the analysts, as these figures were cycling growth rates of 21.2% and 15.2%, respectively, for the same period last year.

Due to volatility in monthly Medicare data and the distorting effect of Easter across the next two months, the broker leaves forecasts unchanged across its coverage of ASX-listed pathology and imaging companies.

The Neutral rating and 27c target are maintained for Capitol Health.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.03
If CAJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COI    COMET RIDGE LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.21

Petra Capital rates ((COI)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital feels the prospect of a takeover of Comet Ridge is becoming more real given the strategic relevance of the Mahalo Gas project, and the current -32% discount to peer valuation multiples.

This view by the broker follows management's statement of being  in “early-stage discussions” and is “evaluating its strategic and other options, including Mahalo project funding, expanding operations by merging with another entity, or a change of control”.

Santos ((STO)) is a 43% joint venture partner in Mahalo. The Buy rating and 38c target are unchanged.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.17
If COI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $16.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs believes earnings and valuation risks from upcoming industry body inquiries are by now fully priced into current share prices for both Woolworths Group and Coles Group.

The broker points out the ACCC held a public inquiry back in 2008 into the competitiveness of retail prices for standard groceries and found grocery retailing was workably competitive. Recommended changes from that enquiry did not hamper Woolworths’ EPS growth.

Note: As Wesfarmers ((WES)) had acquired Coles Group in November 2007, Coles was excluded from this analysis by Goldman Sachs.

The Sell rating and $15.10 target are retained for Coles Group.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.28, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.0, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of 7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF    FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS FUND

Dairy – Overnight Price: $3.38

Jarden rates ((FSF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden continues to factor in a normalisation of earnings for Fonterra Shareholders Fund following strong 1H results, and unchanged FY24 EPS guidance. The analyst sees potential for value-accretive buyback activity.

Management expects margins will contract in the 2H but reiterated the Long Term Aspiration plan (presented in September 2021) remains on track.

The broker's target rises to NZ$4.05 from NZ$3.84 largely due to weighted average cost of capital (WACC) revisions. The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Current Price is $3.38. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.76 cents and EPS of 59.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.69.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.86 cents and EPS of 43.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.86.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.76

Moelis rates ((GMD)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis admits to being uncertain regarding the ultimate share price reaction to Genesis Minerals' long-awaited five-year outlook and corporate strategy update.

The broker notes positives including overall production output and exploration opportunities. However, there are elements of the update which could potentially drag on performance such as near term operating costs and the growth capital required.

The Hold rating and $1.70 target are maintained.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 37.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.27

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Underweight (4) –

In an impressive outcome, in Jarden's view, the two months to the end of February this year showed pathology and imaging benefits growth rates jumping by 9.3% and 11.4%, respectively.

This performance is even more meritorious, notes the analysts, as these figures were cycling growth rates of 21.2% and 15.2%, respectively, for the same period last year.

Due to volatility in monthly Medicare data and the distorting effect of Easter across the next two months, the broker leaves forecasts unchanged across its coverage of ASX-listed pathology and imaging companies.

The Underweight rating and $1.26 target are maintained for Healius.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 21.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 91.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.26

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Neutral (3) –

In an impressive outcome, in Jarden's view, the two months to the end of February this year showed pathology and imaging benefits growth rates jumping by 9.3% and 11.4%, respectively.

This performance is even more meritorious, notes the analysts, as these figures were cycling growth rates of 21.2% and 15.2%, respectively, for the same period last year.

Due to volatility in monthly Medicare data and the distorting effect of Easter across the next two months, the broker leaves forecasts unchanged across its coverage of ASX-listed pathology and imaging companies.

The Neutral rating and $2.59 target are maintained for Integral Diagnostics.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.33
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of -26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 39.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Meteoric Resources has announced it has secured in-principle (indicative) support for up to US$250m in debt financing from United States Export-Import Bank, providing initial financing to support development of the Caldeira Rare Earth Project in Brazil.

Meteoric has also attracted initial interest from other government lenders and export credit agencies. Canaccord Genuity sees this level of potential funding support from low cost sources as a strong endorsement for the project, especially noting the relatively early stage of development.

Speculative Buy and 45c target retained.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.215
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((MEI)) as Buy (1) –

Meteoric Resources has received a non-binding Letter of Interest from the United States Export-Import Bank (EXIM). The potential US$250m facility amount would cover 78% of the Petra Capital's forecast -US$317m of capex for the Caldeira rare earth project.

The broker anticipates favourable financing for Caldeira given its above average grades and recoveries.

The Buy rating and 38c target are maintained. Petra Capital believes Meteoric represents the best ionic rare earth exposure for
global investors.

A final investment decision (FID) on Caldeira is due at the end of 2025.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.145
If MEI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

New Hope reported first half FY24 underlying earnings and headline profit broadly in line with Goldman Sachs. The company finished with net cash of $400m, in line with the broker, and benefited from a $60m net hedging gain in the period.

With coal production weighted 55% to the second half, New Hope expects to achieve the lower end of the cost guidance of $72-81/t.

Growth projects remain broadly on track, Goldman notes, with the expansion of Bengalla completed slightly ahead of schedule and the ramp-up of New Acland also on track but long-dated to FY27.

Target rises to $3.70 from $3.50 but valuation is too rich for the broker, hence Sell retained.

This report was published on March 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.5, implying annual growth of -51.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of -3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $9.06

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

The wholesale cost component of the FY25 draft determinations for the Default Market Offer (DMO)/Victorian Default Offer (VDO) declined by -$16.9/MWh. This outcome was a much smaller decline than Jarden's expectation for a -$28.4/MWh reduction. 

The broker concludes retailers will be able to recover more wholesale costs than originally expected. 

While the analyst's forecasts for Origin Energy's earnings in the Energy Markets division fall below consensus forecasts, Jarden remains positive on the stock.

The target rises to $9.35 from $9.20 and the Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 20, 2024.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $9.06 Difference: $0.29
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 78.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RKN    RECKON LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $0.55

Petra Capital rates ((RKN)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Reckon has presented on prospects for the Legal Group, which implied to Petra Capital significant share price upside.

The analyst suggests investors view Reckon's business in two parts: the Business Group as a stable cash flow generator; and the high- growth engine of the Legal Group.

Due to the combined serviceable addressable market (SAM) across Document and Billing Workflows of more than $500m, the broker has greater confidence in its Legal Group revenue forecasts. These estimates increase to $34.5m in FY29 from $11.7m in FY23.

The Buy rating and $1.10 target are unchanged.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.555
If RKN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.12.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $29.18

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

In an impressive outcome, in Jarden's view, the two months to the end of February this year showed pathology and imaging benefits growth rates jumping by 9.3% and 11.4%, respectively.

This performance is even more meritorious, notes the analysts, as these figures were cycling growth rates of 21.2% and 15.2%, respectively, for the same period last year.

Due to volatility in monthly Medicare data and the distorting effect of Easter across the next two months, the broker leaves forecasts unchanged across its coverage of ASX-listed pathology and imaging companies.

The Neutral rating and $28.88 target are maintained for Sonic Healthcare.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $28.88 Current Price is $29.18 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.71, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 95.70 cents and EPS of 108.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.5, implying annual growth of -22.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 99.10 cents and EPS of 151.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.0, implying annual growth of 24.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $8.89

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Buy (1) –

The recent WebBeds strategy update by Webjet highlighted to Jarden the material opportunity from both a market share and return on invested capital (ROIC) perspective.

Management provided a clearer pathway on drivers to achieve the FY30 total transaction value (TTV) target of $10bn, in the broker's view.

The broker's Buy rating is retained and the target raised to $9.55 from $8.80.

The Webjet business is incorrectly viewed as an online travel agent (OTA), suggest the analysts, rather than a high-ROIC global B2B platform growing at a more than 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: $0.66
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 713.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 42.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 27.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Key positive takeaways for Wilsons from Webjet's WebBeds strategy day were total transaction value (TTV) targets set for FY24, FY25 and FY30 of $4bn, $5bn and $10bn, respectively. These targets imply a growth rate nearly double estimated wholesale market growth.

These positives were partially offset by lower revenue/TTV guidance of “mid-7%”, driven primarily by geographic mix shift, explains the analyst.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target increased to $10.13 from $9.17 largely due to a roll-forward in the broker's valuation to FY25.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: $1.24
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 713.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 27.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $32.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes earnings and valuation risks from upcoming industry body inquiries are by now fully priced into current share prices for both Woolworths Group and Coles Group.

The broker points out the ACCC held a public inquiry back in 2008 into the competitiveness of retail prices for standard groceries and found grocery retailing was workably competitive. Recommended changes from that enquiry did not hamper Woolworths’ EPS growth.

Note: As Wesfarmers ((WES)) had acquired Coles Group in November 2007, Coles was excluded from this analysis by Goldman Sachs.

The Buy rating and $40.40 target are retained for Woolworths Group.

This report was published on March 21, 2024.

Target price is $40.40 Current Price is $32.39 Difference: $8.01
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.03, suggesting upside of 5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.7, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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