Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 24, 2024

This story features ARN MEDIA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1N

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1N   AIA   AX1 (2)   CMM   COE   DMP   EMR   GMD   GOR   GTK   HUB   KCN   PPS   PRU   RIO   RXL   SFR  

A1N    ARN MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.68

Wilsons rates ((A1N)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons ceases research coverage of ARN Media due to a reallocation of staff resources.

This report was published on July 22, 2024.

Current Price is $0.68. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 31.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.02

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden lowers its target for Auckland International Airport to NZ$8.13 from NZ$8.58 and downgrades to Neutral from Overweight. These changes follow from the Commerce Commission in New Zealand suggesting a lower level of targeted returns compared to management.

The broker makes a -5% reduction in FY26 and FY27 aeronautical pricing forecasts, which results in a modest -2cps reduction in
value.

Also, prior to any price adjustment, the analysts had noted passenger volumes were likely to remain below the company’s Price Setting Event 4 (PSE4) forecasts for the next two years. PSE4 covers aeronautical prices for the five-year period from FY23-27.

This report was published on July 23, 2024.

Current Price is $7.02. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 18.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.47 cents and EPS of 17.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.65 cents and EPS of 18.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.17

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden raises its target for Accent Group to $2.28 from $2.05 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral due to 2H like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 4.1% compared to the 1H and closure of some Glue stores.

The broker believes closing unprofitable Glue stores will improve earnings (EBIT) by around $3m in FY25, with further upside derived from improving the remaining stores.

There are significant medium-term growth drivers, according to Jarden, as management buys back The Athlete’s Foot franchisees, closes unprofitable stores, annualises cost-out, and continues to expand the network.

This report was published on July 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.11
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((AX1)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Accent Group’s FY24 trading update pleased Wilsons, earnings (EBIT) guidance outpacing the broker by 13% thanks to stronger like for like sales in the June half.

The broker says this points to strong execution in core retail brands and a resilient consumer backdrop in the face of cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates.

The closure of 17 underperforming Glue store should also remove a drag on earnings says the broker, noting the company is trading at a discount to peers.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight. Target price rises 19% to $2.50 from $2.10.

This report was published on July 18, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.33
If AX1 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Capricorn Metals, the broker increases the target to $6.65 from $6.40 and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.35
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 1705.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of 82.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.22

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Cooper Energy’s 4Q production and sales volumes were in line with Jarden’s forecasts. Production at Orbost and Cooper Basin missed the broker’s estimates by -2% and -13%, respectively, but was more than offset by a 21% increase in Otway output, explain the analysts.

The next few months are important, in the broker’s view, as management looks to finally deliver on its expectation of higher production rates. The company is confident of increasing output at Orbost in coming weeks.

Overweight rating and 24c target unchanged.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 220.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 333.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $34.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((DMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs views Domino’s Pizza Enterprises’ strategic review as mildly positive, representing a small step in restoring the store network without missing consensus forecasts for FY25 group earnings (EBIT).

The broker predicts the closure of Japanese and French stores will have a minimal net impact on earnings.

Neutral rating and $36.30 target price retained.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $36.30 Current Price is $34.07 Difference: $2.23
If DMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.48, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.9, implying annual growth of 188.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Emerald Resources, the broker increases the target to 4.80 from $4.60 and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.98
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Genesis Minerals, the broker increases the target to $3.15 from $2.90 and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $1.03
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 207.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Gold Road Resources, the broker increases the target to $2.15 from $2.05 and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.39
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 47.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $9.62

Wilsons rates ((GTK)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage on Gentrack Group with an Overweight rating and $11 target price citing a combination of positive regulatory, macro, micro and competitive movements which should play out well for the company over the medium to long term.

The broker expects the above trends (particularly SAP’s ceasing of support for its core platform) will force utilities to Gentrack Group’s cloud-native platform.

Add to that a track record up upgrades, quality management, possible near-term index inclusion in the ASX300 and exposure to megatrends, and the broker is upbeat.

Overweight rating and $11 target price.

This report was published on July 18, 2024.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: $1.38
If GTK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.70.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $47.10

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Neutral (3) –

Commenting after 4Q trading update, Jarden believes Hub24 is well positioned to deliver above management’s $92-100bn platform funds under administration (FUA) target by FY25 (subject to normalised market returns).

Underlying platform flow momentum continued in Q4, note the analysts, though timing impacts from the Equity Trustees ((EQT)) clients transition weighed on the FUA metric.

As management now expects total Equity Trustees migrations to be $5bn, up from $4bn previously, the broker raises its FY25 platform FUA forecast to $104.3bn from $103.2bn.

Neutral rating retained and the target price rises to $44.45 from $43.80.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $44.45 Current Price is $47.10 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.90 cents and EPS of 79.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 70.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.80 cents and EPS of 107.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.6, implying annual growth of 14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KCN    KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KCN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Kingsgate Consolidated, the broker increases the target to $3.20 from $3.00 and the Speculative Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $1.65
If KCN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.47

Wilsons rates ((PPS)) as Overweight (1) –

Following Praemium’s 4Q trading update, Wilsons slightly lowers its medium-term EPS forecasts to reflect a lower funds under administration (FUA) assumption caused by increased near-term Powerwrap outflows.

Custodial FUA of $28.1bn compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for $28.4bn and $27.8bn, respectively, while Non-Custodial FUA of $29.3bn contrasted with estimates by the same parties for $30.3bn and $29.8bn.

Throughout FY25, as cost-growth slows and the annualisation benefits of recent price increases occurs, Wilsons anticipates the Praemium share price will re-rate as the market gains increased confidence in the earnings outlook.

The Overweight rating is unchanged and the target slips to 55c from 56c.

This report was published on July 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.08
If PPS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU    PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRU)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Perseus Mining, the broker increases the target to $3.80 from $3.60 and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $1.16
If PRU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $113.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Pilbara iron ore shipments were in line with the consensus forecast, but Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) production missed by around -15% on lower mining rates and maintenance.

Mined copper production of 171mt missed forecasts by the analysts and consensus by -5% and -2%, respectively.

Regional wildfires in Canada are expected to impact 3Q iron ore volumes, explains the broker.

The analysts believe the midpoint of FY24 Pilbara shipments guidance of 323-338mt can be met by a 2H run-rate of 345mtpa.

The target falls to $136.10 from $137. Buy.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $136.10 Current Price is $113.81 Difference: $22.29
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $130.25, suggesting upside of 14.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 655.79 cents and EPS of 1011.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1203.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 733.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 671.04 cents and EPS of 1030.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1170.3, implying annual growth of -2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 720.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RXL    ROX RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RXL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Rox Resources, the broker increases the target to 51c from 50c and the Speculative Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.365
If RXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 252% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $8.37

Jarden rates ((SFR)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden raises its target for Sandfire Resources to $9.00 from $7.40 and upgrades the rating to Overweight from Neutral. These changes flow from the broker’s increased long-term copper price forecast of US$4.00/lb real, up from US$3.50/lb.

The analysts retain a preference for the stock across the base metals universe. Shares represent a low-risk proposition for both FY25 guidance and FY24 financial disclosure relative to the rest of the sector, according to Jarden.

June quarter results are due on Thursday July 25. The broker’s FY24 underlying EBITDA forecast of around US$316m sits around -10% below the consensus estimate.

This report was published on July 19, 2024.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $0.63
If SFR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 14.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.63 cents and EPS of 54.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of 4077.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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