Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 05, 2024

This story features ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALC

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALC   APM   APX   BGL   BOE   BTH   DDR (2)   DEG   DOW   DSK   DXB   EMR   HGO   HSN   HVN   IGO   IPD   IPG   MAC   MDR   MIN (2)   NXD   PDI   REA   RED (2)   SHJ   SLX   SXL   TPG   VIT   WAF   WGX   WPR  

ALC    ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ALC)) as Buy (1) –

Alcidion Group’s FY24 results were in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts given recent quarterly cash flow reporting in July. Cost-out is starting to have a positive impact, notes the analyst, with staff costs down and one-off restructuring costs now fully incurred.

Management expects positive earnings in FY25, as long as the revenue run-rate of $36m is maintained.

The target falls to 9c from 10c after the broker downgrades its FY25 earnings forecast, having pushed out to FY26 expectations for incremental new contracts of size.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.025
If ALC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APM    APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Healthcare – Overnight Price: $1.44

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APM)) as Hold (3) –

APM Human Services International’s FY24 results aligned with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts.

The board recommends shareholders approve the Scheme for the cash offer of $1.45/share from Madison Dearborn Partners, pending no superior proposal.

A shareholder vote and general meeting are scheduled for September 18.

The Hold rating and $1.45 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.015
If APM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 46.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $1.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APX)) as Speculative Buy (3) –

Canaccord Genuity raises its target for Appen to $1.20 from 80c following 1H results, with revenue trends remaining positive across the business as the company closes in on cash breakeven.

Most of the 1H information was released in the July quarterly, notes the broker. The revenue update for July disappointed the market, resulting in a share price slump post results, explain the analysts, but this was only a single data point and not indicative of a trend.

Management is aiming to become underlying cash EBITDA positive on a run-rate basis in early H2.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.2
If APX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.13.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.33.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((BGL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes Bellevue Gold remains relatively “underappreciated” with the company impacted by near-term growth in development spend.

The company reported net profit of $75m which met the analyst’s expectations but was below consensus with FY25 production guidance unchanged.

Post capital raising Bellevue Gold is in a net cash position. The analyst believes the free cashflow outlook is upbeat with a double-digit yield expected in FY26/FY27.

Goldman Sachs revises EPS forecasts by -6% and -7% for FY25/FY26, respectively on the results.

The Buy rating retained. Target price falls -8% to $1.70.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.555
If BGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 49.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -14.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE    BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BOE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Boss Energy’s FY24 profit of US$45m was just shy of Canaccord Genuity’s US$48m forecast and well ahead of the US$22m expected by consensus.

Management maintained FY25 production target for Honeymoon of at least 850klbs of U3O8.

One potentially positive share price catalyst, according to the broker, will be the start-up of IX columns 2 and 3 at Honeymoon – targeted for completion in the September and December quarters, respectively.

Speculative Buy and $5.85 target retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $3.3
If BOE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 91.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of 340.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Hold (3) –

Following elevated customer churn, consolidation of prior acquisitions, and a material cost base restructure in the 1H for Bigtincan Holdings, FY24 results illustrated business stabilisation, according to Canaccord Genuity.

Management provided an upbeat outlook with a return to “ARR growth in FY25” and an “EBITDA target of more than $14m” (FY24 $12m), which implies to the broker adjusted EBITDA of more than $16m.

The 40c target and Hold rating are unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.275
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $9.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((DDR)) as Neutral (3) –

In reviewing 1H results for Dicker Data, Goldman Sachs suggests 2Q momentum should set up a solid 2H, though the SME
end market remains challenging with longer sales cycles than usual.

The long-awaited refresh cycle as well as the introduction of AI PCs should improve sales towards the end of 2024, in the broker’s view.

Owing to growth in the high margin Data Access and Surveillance (DAS) business and a cyclical recovery in SME IT spending, 10% gross profit margins are achievable in coming years, according to the analysts. Historically margins have been between 9-9.5%. 

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $9.80 from $9.85.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $0.8
If DDR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((DDR)) as Buy (1) –

After adjusting for bad debts, Dicker Data’s 1H profit (PBT) met the consensus forecast but opex was higher-than-expected due to an increased headcount needed to support new vendor additions, explains Jarden.

The broker’s target falls to $10.60 from $11.38 largely due to forecast downgrades for the adjusted PBT margin on the back of increased FY24-FY26 opex forecasts.

The Buy rating is unchanged, with the analysts reiterating Dicker Data is a 2H/FY25 story partly due to benefits from the refresh cycle and the tailwind from AI PC’s.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $1.6
If DDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 45.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 50.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DEG    DE GREY MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((DEG)) as Buy (1) –

Management at De Grey Mining is targeting a final investment decision (FID) for the Hemi deposit within the coming 12 months to be followed by a two-year construction phase into first production by the 2H of 2026.

The company has recently received approval for $150m in debt funding from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF). 

Taking into account cash on hand and total debt facilities, De Grey is essentially fully funded, according to the broker, and able to withstand any modest changes in scope.

The target rises to $1.40 from $1.35. Buy.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.3
If DEG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 61.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW    DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $5.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((DOW)) as Neutral (3) –

Downer EDI’s FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) beat forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus by 1% and 2%, respectively, and management’s FY25/26 targets were reaffirmed.

The 28.9 cent FY24 dividend beat the consensus forecast by 4%. 

Cost-out of $45m is expected in FY25 as part of management’s $175m total target, after $130m was achieved in FY24.

The broker’s $4.80 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 274.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 18.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.09

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity describes “ebullient” early-FY25 trading demonstrating an unfolding turnaround for Dusk Group. Stronger 2H momentum was also noted within pre-released FY24 numbers.

In the first eight weeks of FY25, like-for-like sales, online sales and bricks and mortar sales grew by 12.1%, 39.1%, and 14.4%, respectively.

The new store rollout in FY24 was strong, suggests the analyst, with the opening of four net new stores.

The broker is encouraged by management’s planned growth initiatives including more frequent collaborations and activation of new customer cohorts.

The Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $1.60 from $1.15.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.51
If DSK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.81.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXB    DIMERIX LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.43

Petra Capital rates ((DXB)) as Buy (1) –

While Petra Capital highlights recent lumpy cash outflow associated with the drug candidate DMX-200 trial in the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), the trial remains fully funded.

The broker anticipates a material near-term cash boost with potentially more partnering deals to follow.

The FY24 net loss of -$17.1m was worse than the broker’s -$11.5m forecast driven by higher R&D costs related to one-off trial site initiations and higher share-based payments.

The target falls to $1.33 from $1.36. Buy.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.895
If DXB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 206% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.91.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.59.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) –

Thanks to higher-than-expected interest and by-product sales, FY24 earnings (EBITDA) of $196m for Emerald Resources exceeded forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus for $181m and $194m, respectively.

FY25 production guidance remains as stated in the definitive feasibility study (DFS) in a range of 100-110koz.

The broker believes Emerald is sufficiently funded to develop Memot and Dingo Range over the coming two years.

The Buy rating and $4.50 target price are unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.74
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.46.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 20.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.53.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HGO)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

First half revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for Hillgrove Resources were in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts.

So far, the broker is impressed with the ramp-up of operations at the Kanmantoo Copper Mine in South Australia

The Speculative Buy rating and 10c target are maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.049
If HGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.55.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN    HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $4.37

Goldman Sachs rates ((HSN)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises its target for Hansen Technologies to $5.10 from $4.95 on higher earnings forecasts across FY25-27 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker has increased confidence in the organic growth outlook and management’s ability to extract synergies from Powercloud.

Further analysis of FY25 guidance by Goldman suggests sales in the core business (ex Powercloud) are accelerating to circa 8% year-on-year, largely driven by the structural tailwinds for digital transformation in the Energy vertical.

The broker expects healthy earnings in FY26 from Powercloud, noting a key re-rate catalyst would be further evidence on cost synergies.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.73
If HSN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 47.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 105.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 18.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Second half profit (PBT) for Harvey Norman beat Goldman Sachs’ forecast by 8% and was in line with consensus. Following FY24 results, the analysts lower sales forecasts but group earnings (EBIT) estimates are unchanged due to higher Australian franchise margins.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating given comparative sales remain below key peers including JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Officeworks ((WES)). Additionally, it’s thought ongoing weakness in New Zealand and volatility in Asia increase risks to growth.

The target falls to $4.50 from $4.60. The Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 18.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.6, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $5.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Sell (5) –

FY24 earnings (EBITDA) for IGO were broadly in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecast.

While a 26 cent dividend blew away the 8.5 cents expected by consensus, the broker cautions that post the ex-div date last year IGO shares underperformed Pilbara Minerals’ ((PLS)) by -22% over the following three months.

The analysts suggest the board should have adopted a more conservative payout position.

Sell rating maintained and the target revised to $4.70 from $4.80.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 3683.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 140.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPD)) as Buy (1) –

FY24 results for ImpediMed were in line with quarterly reporting in July. However, Canaccord Genuity suggests share price pressure reflects a level of impatience as investors await sales execution, with a material uplift in new installed Sozo units remaining elusive.

Management highlighted actions to manage cash burn including a FY25 operating cash spend -10% lower than the FY24 level.

The broker suggests management’s aim to be breakeven by July 2025 is very optimistic, and the analyst’s forecasts assume a capital injection.

The Buy rating and 14c target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.092
If IPD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 192% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $4.99

Moelis rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1) –

IPD Group’s earnings (EBIT) and profit beat forecasts by Moelis and consensus and earnings came in ahead of management’s guidance range. Organic growth in the existing business was offset by a softer 2H for CMI operations (considered transitory), note the analysts.

Management provided unchanged positive commentary on buoyant market conditions with demand coming from the renewable energy transition, data centres, and EV chargers, highlights the broker. A Q1 trading update will be provided at the AGM in November.

A fully franked final dividend of 6.2 cents was declared.

The target rises to $5.76 from $5.65. Buy.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $5.76 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.77
If IPG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.60 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.40.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $15.50

Moelis rates ((MAC)) as Buy (1) –

Metals Acquisition reported 1H24 results which Moelis views as “messy” with an additional 5kt of forward sales in the revenue which was not disclosed in the quarterly statements.

Due to changes in fair values recognised as an expense net profit came in at -US$102.2m against a forecast -US$19.1m.

The broker sees it as “challenging” to analyse the underlying performance.

Buy rating unchanged with $23 target price.

This report was published on September 1, 2024.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $15.50 Difference: $7.5
If MAC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 69.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.21.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 115.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.39

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1) –

MedAdvisor’s FY24 result came in at the top end of management’s guidance. Moelis notes gross profit margins improved to 60.8% from 57.5% in H1 due to increased revenue from the high margin omnichannel THRiV programs.

While no formal guidance was issued, management noted FY24 had “provided a strong foundation for growth in FY25.”

A five-year strategic outlook was provided, with an aspirational target for revenues of $250m with EBITDA margins exceeding 20% by FY28, which the analyst suggests cannot be achieved by organic growth alone.

Target 53c. Buy.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.145
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $34.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs observes FY24 results for Mineral Resources were broadly in line excluding the substantial increase in gearing with around a $3bn rise in net debt.

A recent decline in both the iron ore and lithium price is also noted with management cutting lithium volumes at Mt Marion and deferring the Wodgina lithium Train 3 and Ashburton iron ore stage 2.

Capex is still expected to advance around $2bn in FY25, well above the broker’s estimate.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS forecasts by 125% and -35% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price falls to $43, down -9%. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $34.21 Difference: $8.79
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $53.66, suggesting upside of 71.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 488.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.25 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 136.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden considers Mineral Resources is sending mixed messages for FY25 and struggling to align production guidance, well below forecasts against an uplift in capex to over two times estimates.

The broker points to cost blowouts at Onslow, despite protestations from management with concerns over the lithium strategy.

Jarden cuts EBITDA forecasts by -38% in FY25 and -41% in FY26.

The balance sheet is believed to be in a “precarious position” as FY24 results revealed higher capex, and no final dividend as expected.

Target price sliced to $32 from $44.70. Sell rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $34.21 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $53.66, suggesting upside of 71.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 148.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 213.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD    NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.17

Petra Capital rates ((NXD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a “credible” FY24 result by NextEd Group which exceeded consensus expectations for earnings (EBITDA) and cash flow.

The broker points to considerable uncertainty around when students return for the English language intensive courses for overseas students (ELICOS). A falling FY25 contribution is expected in the International Vocation segment which includes ELICOS.

Speculative Buy rating is retained, and the target reduced to 27c from 31c.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.1
If NXD meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDI    PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

The approval of the granting of the Exploitation Permit for Predictive Discovery’s Bankan gold project could be delayed from the expected date before the beginning of 2025.

The Guinea government department responsible for tenements, approvals and permitting has been temporarily closed for “the maintenance of the system and reviewing of all mining titles in the Cadastral system”.

The analyst suggests the closure could be part of a broader government organisational review/process ahead of elections, with an interim government currently in place following a military coup in 2021.

Speculative Buy rating and $0.45 target maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.235
If PDI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $201.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights REA Group launched Luxe Listings in July as an optional upgrade for Premiere-plus customers to provide better listings exposure.

The analyst considers whether the increased cost of the product is proving worthwhile. Early feedback infers the Sydney market is positive, and agents stated three out of 27 property inspections came from out-of-suburb buyers who found the ad in Lux Listings.

Goldman Sachs continues to stress the above consensus view around the durability of “double-digit” yield growth for the Australian market.

Buy rated with $223 target price.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $223.00 Current Price is $201.00 Difference: $22
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $218.03, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 426.5, implying annual growth of 86.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 485.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 504.4, implying annual growth of 18.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 280.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.29

Moelis rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes the Red 5 FY24 results which came in lower than expected, although up on FY23 with only two weeks of a contribution from Silver Lake assets.

Regarding FY25 guidance, the broker notes lower production (-11%), higher costs (up 15%) and capex (up 9%) result in earnings downgrades.

Buy rating unchanged. Target moves to 50c.

This report was published on August 29, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.21
If RED meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.17.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Petra Capital rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital points to FY25 guidance miss for Red 5.

The company also added further $500/oz to costs from guided capex, exploration and costs at Sugar Zone, the analyst explains.

Target price falls -14% to 44c. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.15
If RED meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHJ    SHINE JUSTICE LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $0.79

Moelis rates ((SHJ)) as Buy (1) –

Shine Justice reported FY24 results which reflected a restructuring of the business according to Moelis.

The company sold its non-core businesses, focusing on its core Class Actions and Personal Injury segments, including efficiency improvements to create better cash conversion.

Moelis comments the FY25 pipeline looks robust including the settling and filing several class actions in FY24.

Buy rating, with a 93c target price.

This report was published on September 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.14
If SHJ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.90.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.52.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $3.60

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLX)) as Buy (1) –

Silex Systems’ operational update highlighted depleted UF6 has been successfully loaded into the Test Loop pilot facility in Wilmington ready for laser enrichment testing.

If successful, completion will be one year earlier than originally planned and broadly in line with the accelerated schedule.

Management will participate in the bidding process after the Department of Energy in the US allocated US$2.7bn in funding to boost the “domestic nuclear fuel supply chain” and launched an LEU request for proposals.

The Speculative Buy rating and $6.21 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $6.21 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $2.61
If SLX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXL    SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.54

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SXL)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Southern Cross Media’s core audio business is returning to revenue growth, a FY25 dividend yield of 10.5% is forecast, and there is potential for a near-term divestment of the company’s Regional TV asset.

Following broadly in-line FY24 results, showing gathering momentum in the 2H which continued into early-FY25, the broker raises its target to 96c from 90c and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

According to management, digital audio should be cash flow positive in FY25. The focus is upon paying down debt, explain the analysts, so no final dividend was declared.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.42
If SXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 30.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Sell (5) –

TPG Telecom’s 1H profit beat Goldman Sachs forecast by 14% while earnings (EBITDA) were in line.

Management noted the business is tracking towards the mid point of its FY24 earnings guidance.

Following the significant price rises in early-H1, the extent of the decline in Vodafone Postpaid/Prepaid mobile subscribers surprised the analysts, potentially subduing further price increases.

The target rises to $4.40 from $4.35. Sell.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 441.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 46.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VIT    VITURA HEALTH LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.09

Petra Capital rates ((VIT)) as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) –

Following in-line FY24 results and improved FY25 margin guidance, Petra Capital raises its target for Vitura Health to 12c from 9c and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold.

Management noted the lower margin in FY24 (27.6%, down from 34.5% in FY23) was due to intensified competitive pressures within the medicinal cannabis sector. Despite this, unit sales increased by 7% in FY24 via the Canview platform, observes the analyst.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.03
If VIT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WAF    WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WAF)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on unhedged gold producer West African Resources which operates the Sanbrado Gold Mine in central Burkina Faso with a Buy rating and $3.15 target.

The company is also developing the Kiaka Gold Project, 45km south of Sanbrado, with construction well underway and first gold anticipated in the second half of 2025.

In a year’s time, Canaccord expects West African Resources to be generating gold from these two mines at a rate of 400kozpa at a cost (AISC) of around US$1,250/oz and yielding $400m in free cash flow (FCF) on an annualised basis.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $1.79
If WAF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.91.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.04.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.75

Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a strong FY24 for Westgold Resources, in the last financial year in the current format, following the successful merger with Karora Resources on August 1.

Over FY24, Westgold transitioned to an unhedged operator focusing on its larger, profitable underground mines.

The target for Westgold Resources rises to $3.75 from $3.67. Buy.

Based on the broker’s FY25 production forecasts, Westgold Resources becomes a top five producer on the ASX and the third most leveraged gold exposure (100% unhedged).

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $1
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.51.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPR    WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.65

Moelis rates ((WPR)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis believes the -7% net tangible assets (NTA) discount Waypoint REIT is currently trading at is relatively attractive when considering the REIT’s internalised structure and defensive nature.

First half results revealed a distributable EPS and dividend of 8.28cpu and 8.24cpu, respectively, while FY24 guidance was upgraded to EPS of 16.48cpu (prior range: 16.32-16.48cpu) due to slower-than-expected asset sales, explains the analyst.

The Buy rating is retained, and the target price increases to $2.84 from $2.79.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.19
If WPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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