The Overnight Report: Bonds, Tesla & ResMed

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SPI futures are indicating a cautious though positive start for the Australian bourse on Friday as results by Tesla and ResMed beat market forecasts, and as bond yields retreat from this week’s gains.

Good morning.

US Treasuries reversed direction, pulling yields lower, and Tesla’s quarterly earnings beat market forecasts sending the shares up by some 20%. ResMed’s ((RMD)) quarterly -released earlier this morning- has beaten market forecasts too.

The release of PMIs across the globe once again showed US outperformance against weakness in Europe, though the German PMIs (manufacturing and services) also beat expectations

Economists at National Australia Bank:

“The US PMIs, in services at least, once more outshone Europe, up to 55.3 from 55.2 against 55.0 expected and remaining consistent with the growth of around 3% at the start of Q4, and which is likely to be conformed for Q3 when the advance estimate is published next Wednesday.

“The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate sits at 3.4%. Against this, manufacturing is still quite deep in contraction (47.8) while within services, the employment number is still sub-50, while the output price series fell sharply, to 51.4 from 54.5.

Elsewhere on the US data front weekly jobless claims fell by a lot more than expected (227k against the 242k consensus) though continuing claims were 22k more than expected and a three week high.

New home sales rose by 4.1% in September (consensus 0.6%) with September revised up to -2.3% from -4.7%.”

US Treasury yields dropped, having risen for successive days making equity investors a little nervous throughout the week. Futures indicate similar moves for AUD rates to open.

The yield on the US 10y bond fell -6bp to 4.19%.

The AUD/USD was steady in the low 0.66 range as the USD eased from a recent high on G10 crosses overnight.

Commodities are eying inventory reports in China that should highlight ongoing restocking despite underlying consumption remaining lacklustre.

Oil fell, with WTI futures down -1.0%, trading at USD70.1/bbl. Gold firmed 0.8%, trading at USD2,736.9/oz.

Base metals were up strongly in Asian trading as supply side issues remained in focus.

Iron ore edged higher as the market awaits China’s upcoming legislative meeting for more details on stimulus measures.

In the meantime, data suggest demand remains weak. Inventory levels at major Chinese steel mills rose 4.96% to 15.5mt in mid-October compared with early October, according to data from China Iron and Steel Association.

Economists at ANZ Bank report Fed policymakers are leaning towards a gradual easing path.

Cleveland Fed President Hammack (voter) said that while there is notable progress on inflation, there is still work to be accomplished. She noted that several factors such as surge in energy prices could rapidly reverse the course of inflation progress.

ANZ Bank comments that suggests a preference for moving to a slower pace of easing (i.e. in -25bp increments) and a gradual path of easing going forward.

Separately, initial jobless claims declined for second week in a row, back to pre-Hurricane levels.

The data point towards persistent underlying strength in the labour market, and do not signal any major adverse economic impact from the hurricanes.

The S&P PMI data showed the economy maintained momentum, especially in services. Price pressures ebbed, a positive for inflation outlook.

On the calendar today:

-New Zealand ANZ Oct consumer confidence

-Japan Oct CPI

-US Sept- durable goods

-US University of Michigan Sentiment

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) AGM

-Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)) AGM

-Adairs ((ADH)) AGM

-Car Group ((CAR)) AGM

-Cochlear ((COH)) AGM

-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY)) AGM

-Judo Bank ((JDO)) AGM

-Mineral Resources ((MIN)) Qtrly Update

-McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)) AGM

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Corporate news in Australia:

-Mineral Resources ((MIN)) remains scandals-plagued with latest media report stating board members Chris Ellison and Tim Roberts allegedly bought discounted heavy machinery from the company for their New Zealand estate

-CBA ((CBA)) and Westpac ((WBC)) split from NAB ((NAB)), ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and lobby group to back strict borrower rules in place, citing need to protect first time buyers from excessive debt stress

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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