The Overnight Report: ANZ Result Disappoints

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8327.00	+ 87.00	1.06%
S&P ASX 200	8226.30	+ 26.80	0.33%
S&P500	5973.10	+ 44.06	0.74%
Nasdaq Comp	19269.46	+ 285.99	1.51%
DJIA	43729.34	– 0.59	– 0.00%
S&P500 VIX	15.20	– 1.07	– 6.58%
US 10-year yield	4.34	– 0.09	– 1.92%
USD Index	104.24	– 0.77	– 0.74%
FTSE100	8140.74	– 25.94	– 0.32%
DAX30	19362.52	+ 323.21	1.70%

Good morning.

The Fed delivered the broadly anticipated -25bp rate cut, but uncertainty is now creeping in about the path forward for US inflation and thus about future rate cuts.

UST yields were lower, as some of the post-election moves unwound. The yield on the US 10y note fell -6.7bp to 4.37%.

The Bank of England also cut rates by -25bp overnight, taking the bank rate to 4.75%.

All major US indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq100 outperforming with a 1.5% gain.

Locally, ANZ Bank’s ((ANZ)) FY24 release revealed a performance that didn’t quite meet market expectations, unlike National Australia Bank yesterday.

News Corp’s ((NWS)) quarterly update did surprise positively, even though REA Group’s ((REA)) failed acquisition attempt in the UK led to higher costs, while Block’s ((SQ2)) update proved largely in line.

With early elections looking likely in Germany, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed  up 1.1%, while the FTSE100 closed down -0.3%.

WTI futures rose 0.3% to trade at USD72.2/bbl. Gold lifted 1.4% to USD2,691.2/oz.

ANZ Bank:

Metals rebounded from the sharp selloff in the immediate aftermath of the US election. Such volatility is likely to continue until there is more clarity around Trump’s economic policies.

That includes tariffs on imports from most trading partners.

The rebound was supported by trade data that showed recent stimulus measures and expanding manufacturing activity kept China’s commodity imports robust for October.

Refined copper imports rose to 500kt, as some smelting plants remained closed for maintenance.

Concentrate imports saw a marginal increase from last year. Iron ore imports continued to surprise with volumes staying above 100mt.

This is despite weaker profitability and contracting steel production.

Crude oil rose as the market digested the competing narratives around Trump’s potential impact on the oil market.

The prospect of higher production is a focus of concern. That could also be exacerbated by weaker demand, should tariffs crimp China’s economy.

However, there are also expectations that a Trump administration might renew a clampdown on Iran via further sanctions. This comes amid an uncertain outlook in 2025.

Highlighting this, top oil trader, Vitol Group’s, CEO Russell Hardy said that while the market looks slightly bearish next year, it’s too early to be certain that it will be oversupplied.

Trade data from China didn’t help sentiment. Crude oil imports remained subdued, down by -3.4% year-to-date.

Unattractive refining margins led to further cuts in refinery run rates, resulting in further falls in crude throughput to 14.5mb/d.

With a rise in EV’s share to above 50% of total car sales and switching of fuel from diesel to gas for heavy vehicles, oil demand remained muted.

That said, a further fall in prices could see imports picking up to fill storage facilities.

On the calendar today:

-China BoP & CA balance

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) earnings report

-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)) AGM

-Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)) Q3 earnings report

-News Corp ((NWS)) 1Q25 earnings report

-REA Group ((REA)) 1Q25 earnings report

-Block ((SQ2)) Qtrly earinngs

Corporate news in Australia:

-Steadfast Group ((SDF)) is acquiring HW Wood and HWI France for -GBP23.5m

-Mayne Pharma ((MAY)) is considering delisting from the ASX

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	2712.20	+ 43.00	1.61%
Silver (oz)	32.07	+ 0.77	2.47%
Copper (lb)	4.44	+ 0.20	4.71%
Aluminium (lb)	1.22	+ 0.04	3.63%
Nickel (lb)	7.47	+ 0.18	2.48%
Zinc (lb)	1.38	+ 0.04	3.30%
West Texas Crude	71.98	+ 0.10	0.14%
Brent Crude	75.36	+ 0.16	0.21%
Iron Ore (t)	104.01	0.00	0.00%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index	07 Nov 2024	Week To Date	Month To Date (Nov)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2024)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	8226.30	1.32%	0.81%	-0.53%	8.37%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
AD8	Audinate Group	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
DHG	Domain Holdings Australia	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Bell Potter
		Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	Citi
LYC	Lynas Rare Earths	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
RDX	Redox	Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate	Ord Minnett
SBM	St. Barbara	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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