Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 05, 2025

This story features BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BRG   CIA   CMM   CNB   FFM   GQG   IAG   IGO   IPD   KAR   MFG   MIN (2)   ORG (2)   RMD (3)  

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $37.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Buy (1) –

On the back of US President Trump signing executive orders to impose additional 10% tariffs on China imports to the US effective Feb 4, Goldman Sachs performed an initial assessment of its impact on Breville Group.

The company will continue to move 120V production out of China to Mexico, Indonesia and Cambodia. The broker calculates this remains a more cost-efficient alternative even after accounting for an additional 10% import tariff into China and a 25% tariff into  Mexico.

The broker estimates retail prices would increase around 4-5%, though the company has indicated it is looking to work through a more nuanced operating plan together with suppliers. 

Overall, the broker expects no material impact on FY25 forecasts but highlights FY26 remains less certain. Target price $40.90. Buy rating remains.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $37.40 Difference: $3.5
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting downside of -7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.9, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $5.28

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Champion Iron posted an improved operational result in the December quarter, with both production and sales beating consensus and its estimate, despite the impact on sales of rail load-out failure in early December.

The highlight for the broker was the DRPF project continuing on time and budget for FY25 second quarter commissioning.

The broker noted an increase to new debt with new equipment financing liability of CA$70m introduced in the quarter relating to the new rail cars (2034 maturity), whilst a further CA$70m was drawn from the revolver.

The addition of new debt and leases resulted in net debt of CA$620m on December 31.

Target price rises to $7.34 from $7.26 on higher commodity prices short term plus lower forex, partly offset by a higher discount rate and a notable increase to net debt. 

Overweight rating stays.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $7.34 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $2.06
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.05 cents and EPS of 35.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.93.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.48 cents and EPS of 50.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.91

Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals’ December quarter cost of $1,490/oz came in slightly higher than Jarden’s estimate of $1,477/oz, but was lower than the quarter before on rising mining volumes and improved efficiencies.

The broker forecasts production to rise steadily over the remainder of the year with a distinct June quarter weighting, delivering 61koz in the June half vs 54koz in the December half. 

Jarden increased FY26-28 gold price forecast by 5-10% and this, together with lower forex and higher production growth, resulted in material changes to its earnings and operational cashflow metrics. EBITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 rise by 24% and 19% respectively, resulting in a 26% lift in FY25 EPS forecast and a 22% rise in FY26.  

Target price rises to $7.99 from $6.96. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $7.99 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: $0.08
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting downside of -2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 74.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of -2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.36

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes 2Q25 was another strong quarter for Carnaby Resources, both in terms of exploration progress and project development. Cash came in higher than the broker’s estimate but this was mainly due to the timing of the Trekelano deal payment.

The broker believes the most significant milestone for the quarter was the company securing a long-term processing solution with Glencore, coupled with Glencore’s addition as a cornerstone investor. In the broker’s view, this further reinforces the viability of a standalone operation at Duchess, effectively paving the way for a low-upfront capex development strategy.

No change to Buy rating. Target price 75c. Next key catalyst is the release of the Pre-Feasibility Study expected around 3Q25.

This report was published on February 2, 2025.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.39
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFM    FIREFLY METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.86

Moelis rates ((FFM)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes exploration activity at Firefly Metals appears to have accelerated in 2Q25 relative to its expenditure estimates, primarily driven by the four drill rigs operating underground.

The cash position of $75m compares with the broker’s $86.1m forecast, and the analyst is attributing the variance to additional exploration spend of -$3m, equity raise costs of -$3.7m and GST payments of -$2m.

The broker has revised the 2H25 exploration spend estimate to -$24m from -$15m. 

Target price remains at $1.5 and rating retained at Buy.

This report was published on February 2, 2025.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.64
If FFM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.11.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.17

Jarden rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

GQG Partners announced weak total net flows for the months of November and December but Jarden’s analysis of 65 listed GQG funds suggests net outflows troughed on November 22 and have rebounded strongly since. Net inflows are now back to pre-Adani levels, the broker highlights.

Expanding further, the broker notes the minor net outflows reported by GQG in December appeared to be solely related to institutional clients, which GQG said was due to “asset allocation and rebalancing changes.”

Jarden expects net flows will recover strongly in the near term. Buy rating retained and target price is $3.05.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.88
If GQG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 32.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.82 cents and EPS of 21.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.87 cents and EPS of 24.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $8.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has updated its model for IAG’s announced release of $200m of its $380m business interruptions (BI) provision following the declassing orders made by the Federal Court.

The broker believes the balance $180m provision could prove redundant if there is a lack of direct claims made, particularly in the absence of a class action.

Collectively, the broker reckons the BI provision release alongside an expected strong reported margin for 1H as well as utilisation of tax losses points to a strong capital position for the insurer.

Target price rises to $8.3 from $8.1. Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $4.81

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

IGO Ltd reported strong operational performance at Greenbushes with first-half production exceeding the top end of current guidance.

Jarden notes management will update FY25 guidance “soon,” but stated in the call it saw no reason to consider production rates would step down in the second half.

The broker is taking the view 2H will deliver similar production levels to the first half and lifted the FY25 gross forecast to 1.53Mt at $345/t cost versus 1.47Mt at $372/t prior forecast.

Target price drops to $6.07 from $6.20 mainly on account of lower Nova valuation due to lower life of mine grades and recoveries. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $6.07 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $1.26
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 13.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 106.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.05

Wilsons rates ((IPD)) as Overweight (1) –

ImpediMed’s 2Q25 revenue missed Wilsons’ estimate by -$0.3m but the key focus for the broker was the reimbursement update. The analyst is impressed by the addition of 112m covered lives, with the total surpassing the 250m mark (258.5m)

Underlying cash outflow was consistent with the guidance at $3.4m and with $17.7m cash, ImpediMed is fully funded through to achieving break-even, the broker highlights.  

No change to forecasts but the broker will reassess its estimates following 1H25 results to be released on Feb 27. Target price of 17c and Overweight rating are unchanged.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.119
If IPD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.37.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.54

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Karoon Energy announced plans for a new, major on-market buyback and ambitions to purchase the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel it currently leases in Brazil.

Jarden sees the potential FPSO acquisition and buybacks as both value and EPS accretive, more than offsetting the concerns it has around Who Dat performance after 2025 production guidance was materially below its estimate. The broker believes the new buyback and potential FPSO acquisition may mean other inorganic growth options are off the radar for now. 

Target price rises to $1.95 from $1.90. Buy rating remains.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.405
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 36.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.93 cents and EPS of 35.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.44 cents and EPS of 19.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of -15.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $9.54

Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden sees sizeable redemption risks to Magellan Financial’s $17bn of infrastructure funds under management (FUM) with the departure of infrastructure founder/portfolio manager and head of investments Gerald Stack announced for July 2025.

The broker estimates infrastructure FUM will fall by -30% over the coming years. The analyst highlights downside risks to this estimate given sizeable prior collapses in FUM balances, coupled with weak relative infrastructure fund performance,

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral due to increased risk of higher net outflows. Target price lowered to $9.35.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $9.54 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.99, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.70 cents and EPS of 83.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.1, implying annual growth of -43.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.80 cents and EPS of 76.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $33.87

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes Mineral Resources reported a mixed 2Q25, with solid progress on the ramp-up of the Ashburton iron ore mine, but higher than expected lithium unit costs at Wodgina and Mt Marion.

Realised pricing for iron ore and lithium were broadly in line with Goldman’s estimates and FY25 production and cost guidance was unchanged, though lithium unit cost is tracking above the top end of the guidance range.

The broker lowered FY26 EPS forecast by -3% after increasing lithium and iron ore unit costs. FY25 EPS estimate is down -136% after the broker remodelled the one-off gain for the sale of the WA gas assets.

Neutral retained and target price is $34.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $33.87 Difference: $0.13
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 22.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 124.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -95.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 262.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Mineral Resources’ disclosure of net debt of $5.1bn at the end of December surprised Jarden analysts who expected the company to report $3.8bn.

The broker notes net debt increased by $700m despite cash inflows of $1.9bn from asset sales during the half. While $300m was due to the forex conversion of US-denominated debt, the remainder represented cash outflow.

In short, the company burned through a very surprising -$2.3bn of cash during 1H, the broker highlights.

Overall, Jarden views the December quarter report as weak with disappointing 1H cost performance across most of the businesses. The broker sees FY25 guidance for Onslow at risk despite no change in the December quarter result.

The broker’s DCF-derived valuation reduces by a further -17% to $22.80 mainly on account of the net debt balance of $5.1bn. Target price cut to $22.8 from $27.6. Sell rating maintained.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $33.87 Difference: minus $11.07 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 22.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 132.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -95.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 384.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Neutral (3) –

Origin Energy’s 2Q25 APLNG revenue was -5% below Goldman Sachs’ estimates primarily on lower domestic gas sales and forex impacts.

Electricity sales in the first half were flat year on year and in line with Goldman’s expectations, while a -6% decline in gas sales was -4% below the broker’s forecast.

The broker notes lower production from Eastern fields Condabri, Talinga and Orana have begun to materialise which could require accelerated drilling and capex to offset, alongside higher gas purchases from QCLNG to maintain sales. 

Goldman previously assumed APLNG could maintain a minimal drilling program to 2028 but now expects drilling will increase to 140 wells in FY26 from 70 wells in FY25. This will reduce cash distributions paid to the company by -$80m per year over the next 5 years, the analyst estimates.

The broker has revised FY25 APLNG production guidance to 685Pj following a reduction in the company’s guidance to 670-690Pj from 685-710Pj. The analyst left FY25 EBITDA forecast unchanged but revised lower the FY26 estimate by -4%.

Target price drops to $10.2 from $10.4. Neutral rating retained. 

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.1, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Underweight (4) –

The big surprise in Origin Energy’s 2Q25 result for Jarden was a reduction in APLNG FY25 production guidance, primarily due to well underperformance. The broker has updated forecasts to reflect lower APLNG production in the second half and extending into FY26, and additional capex.

The overall impact is a -6c reduction in the broker’s APLNG valuation, with higher-than-previously forecast cash distributions partly offsetting the impact of lower production and additional capex. In other details, electricity retail volumes were broadly flat  but both retail and business gas volumes were lower.

The broker has updated its forecasts to factor in the quarterly report, FY25 guidance and company outlook commentary. The net impact is a -2.5% reduction in FY25 EBITDA and -2.9% decline in FY26 estimate.

Target price drops to $10.45 from $10.65. Underweight rating stays.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: $0.22
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 89.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 72.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.1, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $38.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((RMD)) as Buy (1) –

ResMed delivered a strong 2Q25 result with the 12% year-on-year rise in devices sales in the US an indication growing awareness of obstructive sleep apnea is translating to demand for the company’s products, Goldman Sachs highlights.

The broker notes ResMed’s gross margins improved by 30% sequentially after adjusting for the 2Q25 FX headwind. The analyst forecasts the company’s balance sheet to be in net cash by 4Q25.

The broker raised FY25 and FY26 revenue estimates by 1.1% and 1.3% respectively. Target price rises marginally to $49.0 from $48.9. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $38.96 Difference: $10.04
If RMD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.63, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.02 cents and EPS of 144.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.64 cents and EPS of 163.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.6, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (2) –

After downgrading ResMed’s valuation by 16% in October 2023 on the assumption that GLP-1s would reduce demand for CPAP masks, Jarden has now unwounded some of the revenue downgrades. This is a result of increased confidence that GLP-1 is not impacting sleep volumes. Rather, its awareness has translated to an increase in companies offering home sleep diagnostic devices.

The broker expects this awareness to continue with additional upside from wearable technologies.

The broker also notes ResMed delivered a solid 2Q25, beating consensus by 4.4%, or 2% if one accounts for the better-than-anticipated effective tax rate of 18% vs 19-21% guidance. Gross margin was flat at 59.2%, absorbing a -30bps forex headwind and the broker expects it to remain flat in 3Q while noting the company is still flagging an improvement in 2H vs 1H. 

Jarden sees upside risks to gross margin from freight benefits as more shipping capacity comes online on easing tensions in the Red Sea.

Target price rises to $41.48 from $36.60 on revenue upgrades, some tempering in gross margin and a reduction in capex estimate for FY25. Rating remains at Overweight.

This report was published on February 1, 2025.

Target price is $41.48 Current Price is $38.96 Difference: $2.52
If RMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.63, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.98 cents and EPS of 149.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 48.64 cents and EPS of 173.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.6, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons notes ResMed’s 2Q25 revenue and gross margins were in line with its forecasts while non-GAAP EPS beat its estimate by 7%.

The broker expects manufacturing, procurement initiatives and scale benefits to materialise in FY26-27 and subsequently lifted gross margins in this forecast period by 50bps. 

The broker upgraded FY25-27 EPS estimates by 2%, leading to a rise in target price to $42.82 from $42.18.

Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight as the broker believes earnings expectations now capture the outlook it upgraded for, and some of those drivers may only have a few quarters left to run.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $42.82 Current Price is $38.96 Difference: $3.86
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.63, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.63 cents and EPS of 146.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 33.85 cents and EPS of 153.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.6, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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