Daily Market Reports | Feb 10 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AMP BPT (3) BWP CKF COF (2) GDF IPX NWS ORA PXA REA (2)
AMP AMP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments - Overnight Price: $1.73
Goldman Sachs rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) -
Ahead of AMP's FY24 result on February 14, Goldman Sachs notes key focus will be on platform flows broadly breaking even with stable margins expected over 2H24. The broker awaits an update on the pipeline for FY25 noting some early recovery in net flows across platforms, and superannuation and investments.
The broker also awaits an update on the new SME digital bank as well as the outlook for the core bank, including net interest margin trajectory into FY25 and growth expectations.
AMP is due to present an updated view on capital management plans and a sustainable dividend payout ratio. Goldman sees an opportunity for further capital management outside of dividends
Neutral rating and $1.54 target price.
This report was published on February 6, 2025.
Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting downside of -6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 1122.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.68.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 31.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $1.36
Goldman Sachs rates ((BPT)) as Sell (5) -
Beach Energy's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) and profit were slight beats against consensus estimates, but missed Goldman Sachs' forecasts by -6% and -9%, respectively, on higher-than-expected operating expenses.
Management aims to return a progressive and sustainable dividend going forward, observes the broker, after announcing a 3 cent interim payout, which missed the 4 cents expected by consensus.
Funds were set aside this half for the upcoming Offshore Gas Victoria program, explains the broker.
Target price falls to $1.30 from $1.35. Sell rating retained.
This report was published on February 7, 2025.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.50.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.18.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Neutral (3) -
Beach Energy's 1H25 result was broadly in line with expectations, Jarden highlights, but dividend was lower than forecast with the company justifying it by flagging higher costs related to restoration and capex.
The broker expects Otway execution risks and a conservative production outlook to negatively impact 2H25 free cash flow. Additionally, the broker has factored in lower than previously forecast production over FY25 and FY26, and reduced DD&A expenses over the forecast period.
The net impact is lower distributable free cash flow forecasts for FY25-26, reducing dividend outlook in those periods.
Target price cut to $1.38 from $1.42. Rating remains at Neutral.
This report was published on February 6, 2025.
Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.015
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.66.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.35.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Wilsons rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (1) -
Beach Energys 1H results were largely in line with Wilsons' forecasts, with cost-cutting beginning to take effect. FY25 production guidance was narrowed to 18.5-20.5mmboe from 17.5-21.5mmboe, while capex guidance was maintained.
The broker observes free cash flow (FCF) in the second half may be tighter than the market initially expected, with reliability at the Otway gas plant seen as a key project to drive a step-change in cash flows.
The analysts believe management can bring the plant closer to its nameplate capacity after several false starts, suggesting the market is not pricing in its full production potential.
Wilsons retains an Overweight rating with a $1.86 target.
This report was published on February 7, 2025.
Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.495
If BPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.35.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.86.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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