GARDA PROPERTY GROUP (GDF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

10/09/2025

2

Accumulate

$1.40

12.00%

Morgans assesses the outlook for REITs, highlighting the potential tailwinds from lower interest rates, combined with limited supply coming on stream due to high construction costs which cannot be justified given rental rates.

The analyst views the investment case for the A-REIT sector continues to improve and confirms the previous key picks.

Only three stocks exceed the over 20% total shareholder return criteria for a Buy rating and include DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT)), HMC Capital ((HMC)) and Eureka Group Holdings ((EGH)).

Target price for Garda Property is lifted to $1.40 and the stock is rated Accumulate. Post updated guidance, Morgans lifts its dividend forecasts by 25% for FY26 and 28.1% for FY27.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.20 cents.

04/08/2025

1

Buy

$1.62

29.60%

Garda Property's FY25 FFO of $15m met Moelis' forecasts but net tangible assets per security was slightly down to $1.61 in June from $1.62 in December 2024.

Proforma gearing fell to 14.7% from 42.7% on asset sales. The broker notes the balance sheet strength gives Garda flexibility to increase lending, fund developments or consider capital returns.

The broker believes Garda is in a transition phase and while short-term earnings are subdued, there is a medium-term opportunity from balance sheet strength and higher-margin lending strategy.

Buy. Target rises to $1.62 from $1.60.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.