GARDA PROPERTY GROUP (GDF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

29/10/2026

2

Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy

$1.25

11.61%

Garda Property is selling its industrial real estate portfolio at close to book value, at a time when it is trading at a -38% discount to NTA, Morgans observes.

The sale of its seven remaining industrial assets will be to a Charter Hall ((CHF)) managed fund for $300m. FY27 FFO guidance is upgraded by 19% to 12.5c per security and distribution guidance by 39% to 12.5c per security.

The trade-off, the broker points out, is earnings quality with income moving to high-returning loans with high borrower concentration, from low-yielding leased industrial property.

The sale proceeds will repay debt, leaving the business ungeared with around $321m in investable capital. Morgans downgrades to Accumulate from Buy and reduces the target to $1.25 from $1.30.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.

26/10/2026

1

Buy

$1.41

25.89%

Moelis maintains a Buy rating for Garda Property with its target price decreased to $1.41 from $1.58 following the announced divestment of the remainder of its industrial portfolio to Charter Hall ((CHC)) for net proceeds of $287m.

The transaction transitions the entity into a pure-play private development finance lender and generates a pro forma net cash balance of $176m following the complete repayment of outstanding debt.

The divestment triggers an upgrade to FY27 FFO guidance to 12.5c per share and introduces a 10.0c special distribution to distribute realised capital gains.

The analyst notes the strategic merit of exiting the property portfolio at a -5.9% discount to book value given rising interest rate pressures on asset valuations.

Moelis's estimates incorporate the redeployment of capital into the lending business while conservatively modelling average cash balances above $100m over the forecast period.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.