GARDA PROPERTY GROUP (GDF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

08/07/2026

1

Upgrade to Buy from Hold

$1.15

9.00%

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

Garda Property is upgraded to Buy from Hold as south-east Queensland industrial markets remain resilient and its private credit book is underpinning its asset base. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.00.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.

21/07/2026

1

Buy

$1.61

52.61%

Moelis maintains a Buy rating for Garda Property while lowering its target price to $1.61 from $1.62 following slight reductions to medium-term earnings estimates driven by higher interest rate assumptions.

The analyst highlights that the stock trades on an attractive FY27 dividend yield of 8.9%, which is buoyed by the company's lending exposure.

Potential earnings upside is supported over time through positive leasing spreads, the leasing of vacant space such as at Peterkin Street in Acacia Ridge, and ongoing lending activity.

Valuations continue to reflect significant net tangible asset discounts while offering robust prospective returns, the report concludes.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.