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In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 14-03-25

Weekly Reports | Mar 14 2025

This story features BRICKWORKS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of 1H25 result, Brickworks released an earnings update expecting a -13% y/y fall in North American revenues that compared with Jarden’s forecast for a -8% decline. The company also flagged a significant fall in North America’s EBITDA margin.

For the Australian business, the broker expects 1H to be a trough for building products, with residential construction looking poised for a rebound.

The broker cut EPS estimates by an average -6%, with lower US building product profits largely offsetting an improved Australian business.

Target price falls to $25.60 from $29.10. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral on valuation grounds.

FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED ((FPR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity explains it is not upgrading FleetPartners Group to Buy from Hold because of higher earnings growth ahead.

One of the issues that has made the broker cautious previously has been a period where earnings have generated the equivalent of super profits, courtesy of a post-covid boom.

The upgrade is based on the fact this is a well-run company with relatively defensive and predictable earnings and one the largest fleet managers in a rational market that could experience further consolidation.

Canaccord Genuity believes the stock has become too cheap to ignore and maintains an unchanged target at $3.40.

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgraded the rating on HMC Capital to Overweight from Underweight following the significant share price fall over the last three months.

The broker acknowledges ongoing challenges remain with its listed funds – HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)) and Digico Infrastructure Reit Stapled Unit ((DGT)) but the price decline is still overdone.

The broker cut the target price to $8.65 from $9.95 to account for the risks in the uncertain macro environment but highlights a 17.5% upside risk if its 19% compounded growth for underlying EPS (FY25-28) comes to pass.

RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades its rating for Reliance Worldwide to Overweight from Neutral, following recent share price underperformance. The $5.60 target is unchanged.

In the broker’s view, Reliance remains well-positioned with exposure to large, fragmented global markets, particularly in non-discretionary plumbing repair sectors, which provide significant growth opportunities.

Despite sluggish housing markets, the analysts note management’s guidance for FY25 includes flat sales in the Americas and modest growth in the APAC region, with positive operating leverage expected in the medium term.

The company’s margin resilience, strong product innovation, and strategic focus on core plumbing applications should support mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion, suggests Jarden.

SEEK LIMITED ((SEK)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Goldman Sachs notes the Seek Employment Index rose 5.1% sequentially in January, marking the biggest jump since October 2021. While Seek had factored it in FY25 guidance, the broker reckons this could lead to a stronger volume trajectory in FY26.

The broker pushed the FY26 growth forecast by 1%, leading to a 3% rise in EBITDA estimate.

Target price rises to $25 from $24. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell following share price weakness.

Downgrade

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Most of Capricorn Metals’ 1H numbers were pre-reported, so the main surprise for Jarden was the net profit of $43.1m missing its forecast, mainly due to hedge accounting of non-cash charges.

Cost of goods sold was also higher but this was due to the expensing of growth capex for Mt Gibson project, the broker explains.

Target price lifts to $8.14 from $7.99 based on the company’s cash flow (cash was $355m in December and $363m including bullion). Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy for valuation reasons.

The broker reiterates its preference for Capricorn as a core holding, noting its valuation would rise 70% if spot gold and forex prices are adopted in forecasts.

MEDADVISOR LIMITED ((MDR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity notes MedAdvisor’s -24% y/y 1H25 revenue decline was pre-reported but the EBITDA beat didn’t translate to higher cash flow.

The revenue decline was attributed to several factors and while the company showed conviction about improvement, the broker isn’t confident about customer and pipeline conversion.

The broker would like to see a sustainable pathway to revenue growth, combined with the positive impact of Transformation 360.

The analyst lowered near-term revenue and earnings outlook. Target price cut to 19c (was 57c in November).

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) Downgrade from Buy to Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden comments NRW Holdings’ 1H25 underlying net profit after tax of $58m missed consensus by -10%, impacted by an outstanding $113m creditor claim against OneSteel.

The broker notes management maintained FY25 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $205m-$215m, implying 2H25 margin improvement in mining and strength in mining, energy & tecnolology and civil.

Mining earnings margins will likely decline post-OneSteel, with an estimated -150bps impact requiring contract wins to offset.

Jarden’s EPS forecasts are lowered by -3% for FY25 and -9% for FY26 due to revised assumptions on OneSteel recovery.

Target price cut to $3.10 from $3.85. Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

PANTORO LIMITED ((PNR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Pantoro’s 1H25 result was mixed in Moelis’ view with EBITDA beating its forecast but D&A coming at $56.2m vs the broker’s $40.8m estimate.

The broker made minor revisions to forecasts with the key one being higher D&A and higher interest rate assumption on leases.

No change to the 15c target price. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains.

The broker sees a higher output forecast of 100koz from 90koz pushing valuation to 20c/share.

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 BRICKWORKS LIMITED Buy Neutral Jarden
2 FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
3 HMC CAPITAL LIMITED Buy Sell Jarden
4 RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED Buy Neutral Jarden
5 SEEK LIMITED Neutral Sell Goldman Sachs
Downgrade
6 CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
7 MEDADVISOR LIMITED Neutral Buy Canaccord Genuity
8 NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
9 PANTORO LIMITED Neutral Buy Moelis

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change
A1N ARN Media $0.60 Canaccord Genuity 0.95 1.20 -20.83%
ALK Alkane Resources $0.61 Petra Capital 1.30 1.04 25.00%
ALQ ALS Ltd $15.50 Goldman Sachs 17.75 14.85 19.53%
APE Eagers Automotive $15.15 Canaccord Genuity 17.00 11.00 54.55%
Moelis 15.23 11.51 32.32%
AUE Aurum Resources $0.31 Petra Capital 0.93 0.59 57.63%
AZY Antipa Minerals $0.43 Canaccord Genuity 0.95 0.07 1257.14%
BC8 Black Cat Syndicate $0.86 Petra Capital 1.62 1.10 47.27%
BGL Bellevue Gold $1.27 Canaccord Genuity 2.20 2.25 -2.22%
BHP BHP Group $38.24 Goldman Sachs 47.30 46.80 1.07%
Goldman Sachs 47.40 46.80 1.28%
BKW Brickworks $22.53 Jarden 25.60 30.00 -14.67%
BMN Bannerman Energy $2.04 Canaccord Genuity 4.08 4.33 -5.77%
BOE Boss Energy $2.21 Canaccord Genuity 5.35 5.85 -8.55%
CMM Capricorn Metals $7.84 Goldman Sachs 7.70 7.55 1.99%
Jarden 8.14 7.99 1.88%
CRD Conrad Asia Energy $0.75 Wilsons 1.52 2.03 -25.12%
CU6 Clarity Pharmaceuticals $2.62 Wilsons 8.25 8.48 -2.71%
DSE Dropsuite $5.74 Petra Capital 6.75 5.90 14.41%
DUR Duratec $1.53 Taylor Collison N/A 1.87 -100.00%
FEX Fenix Resources $0.27 Petra Capital 0.39 0.40 -2.50%
HMC HMC Capital $7.26 Jarden 8.65 9.95 -13.07%
HVN Harvey Norman $4.97 Goldman Sachs 4.30 4.00 7.50%
INR ioneer $0.15 Canaccord Genuity 0.27 0.40 -32.50%
KLS Kelsian Group $2.86 Canaccord Genuity 5.60 6.10 -8.20%
LOT Lotus Resources $0.17 Canaccord Genuity 0.37 0.42 -11.90%
MDR MedAdvisor $0.13 Canaccord Genuity 0.19 0.57 -66.67%
MEK Meeka Metals $0.13 Petra Capital 0.19 0.14 35.71%
MVF Monash IVF $1.15 Wilsons 1.43 1.46 -2.05%
NDO Nido Education $0.85 Wilsons 1.04 1.13 -7.96%
NEU Neuren Pharmaceuticals $11.03 Canaccord Genuity 28.12 29.00 -3.03%
Wilsons 26.50 30.94 -14.35%
NWH NRW Holdings $2.70 Canaccord Genuity 3.55 3.82 -7.07%
Jarden 3.10 3.85 -19.48%
NXD NextEd Group $0.16 Canaccord Genuity 0.35 0.34 2.94%
PEN Peninsula Energy $0.68 Canaccord Genuity 2.18 2.50 -12.80%
PNR Pantoro $0.15 Petra Capital 0.22 0.18 22.22%
QAN Qantas Airways $8.82 Goldman Sachs 11.80 8.05 46.58%
QBE QBE Insurance $20.59 Goldman Sachs 23.00 22.50 2.22%
QUB Qube Holdings $3.71 Goldman Sachs 4.65 N/A N/A
RIO Rio Tinto $115.99 Goldman Sachs 143.50 143.70 -0.14%
RMS Ramelius Resources $2.15 Canaccord Genuity 2.90 3.25 -10.77%
SBM St. Barbara $0.20 Petra Capital 0.85 0.64 32.81%
SEK Seek $22.53 Goldman Sachs 25.00 24.00 4.17%
SHA Shape Australia $3.00 Petra Capital 3.50 3.59 -2.51%
SMI Santana Minerals $0.55 Canaccord Genuity 1.33 1.22 9.02%
SMP SmartPay $0.54 Canaccord Genuity 1.20 1.40 -14.29%
SNL Supply Network $36.33 Goldman Sachs 36.40 34.20 6.43%
SSM Service Stream $1.73 Canaccord Genuity 1.95 1.68 16.07%
STN Saturn Metals $0.25 Petra Capital 0.98 0.79 24.05%
SUN Suncorp Group $18.76 Goldman Sachs 24.67 21.00 17.48%
TLS Telstra Group $4.09 Jarden 4.30 4.20 2.38%
TPG TPG Telecom $4.42 Jarden 5.10 5.20 -1.92%
VAU Vault Minerals $0.44 Petra Capital 0.56 0.51 9.80%
Petra Capital 0.68 0.51 33.33%
WGX Westgold Resources $2.64 Petra Capital 4.36 3.25 34.15%
Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change

More Highlights

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components Overnight Price: $15.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity notes new vehicle sales was -7.9% y/y lower in February which was consistent with its view that sales will be lower in 2025 vs 2024’s record 1.23m.

The broker reckons lower sales matter less for Eagers Automotive given expectations of increased BYD sales in FY25 and anticipated contribution from acquisitions.

The broker also notes the company’s 2H24 result showed improved efficiency which will help offset margin pressure in the industry.

Buy rating and target price of $17.

This report was published on March 5, 2025.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.23 Difference: $1.77
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.56, suggesting downside of -0.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUE    AURUM RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((AUE)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital raised its forecast for the gold price by 11% to US$2,580/oz for 2025-2029, and by 15% to US$2,300 post-2029 on expectations of continued demand for gold for risk diversification and as a currency alternative to the US dollar. 

This resulted in an upgrade to earnings and valuations for gold stocks under coverage. The broker remains overweight on the sector.

Aurum Resources is one of two preferred emerging stocks. The broker assumes a $25M equity raise in FY26 via 62.5m shares at 40c/share and a $50m equity raise in FY28 via 125m shares at 40c/share.

Target price rises to 93c from 59c. Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 7, 2025.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.645
If AUE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 226% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZY    ANTIPA MINERALS LIMITED

Mining Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AZY)) as Speculative Buy (1)

Antipa Minerals has retained full ownership of the Wilki Project, notes Canaccord Genuity, after Newmont Corp ((NEM)) decided to withdraw from its farm-in agreement.

This withdrawal allows Antipa to fully control a vast expanse of land, with several exciting greenfield targets, including the Parklands and Jezabeel prospects, highlights the broker.

Management plans to undertake up to 16,000m of drilling in 1H 2025, with Parklands as the primary focus.

Canaccord has raised its target price to 95 cents from 70 cents, reflecting the increased value from the full retention of Wilki and reduced forecast dilution. The Speculative Buy rating remains unchanged.

This report was published on March 5, 2025.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.56
If AZY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO    JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $1.94

Jarden rates ((JDO)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)

Jarden has initiated coverage on Judo Capital Holdings with a Buy rating and target price of $2.60.

The broker notes new customer lending spreads have now returned to at least 450bps spread over 1-month BBSW (had dropped to less than 400bps) reflecting the bank’s positioning in the niche SME lending of $250k-10m range.

The analyst believes there is potential to boost the net interest margin by 30bps via a move to a liquidity coverage ratio from the minimum liquidity holding model.

The broker assesses the bank’s specialist SME lender position is unlikely to be threatened by big four banks as they typically don’t venture below $15m, and scaling up only means 2-3% of market share in both assets and liabilities.

Judo Capital also has IT advantage given no legacy/tech debt. A key negative is any funding market disruption could hurt the bank’s ability to stay liquid.

This report was published on March 5, 2025.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.66
If JDO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 53.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEN    PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEN)) as Speculative Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity has delayed its forecast for the first U308 production at the Lance Project to the September quarter from June which compares with Peninsula Energy’s forecast for the June quarter (pushed back from March).

The broker’s reasons include issues hiring skilled labour, restructuring delays with change in management, and general conservatism following new-end processing capacity.

The company had US$49.9m cash balance in December and announced it is in discussions for additional funding with the US government and international financiers.

Target price cut to $2.18 from $2.50. Speculative Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $1.5
If PEN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.71.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $2.44

Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital raised its forecast for the gold price by 11% to US$2,580/oz for 2025-2029, and by 15% to US$2,300 post-2029 on expectations of continued demand for gold for risk diversification and as a currency alternative to the US dollar. 

This resulted in an upgrade to earnings and valuations for gold stocks under coverage. The broker remains overweight on the sector.

The broker’s preferred stock in the producer space is Westgold Resources. Target price rises to $4.36 (was $3.25 on February 17). 

Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 7, 2025.

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $1.92
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.04.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 48.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WJL    WEBJET GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $0.65

Wilsons rates ((WJL)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1)

Wilsons initiated coverage of Webjet Group with an Overweight rating and target price of 97c.

The broker notes the company has expanded its EBITDA margin to 45% in FY24 from 40% in FY19 despite headwinds from weakness in domestic flight bookings and constraints from global motorhome supply.

Looking ahead, the broker sees near-to-medium-term growth opportunities from domestic flight booking recovery, further growth in international flight bookings, including other related services, and potential recovery in GoSee. The broker also sees an opportunity for online channel growth.

The analyst forecasts FY25 EBITDA of $38.8m compared to the company’s guidance of around $39.1m. For FY26, the broker estimates 11% lift in EBITDA on cost-out in GoSee and growth in international bookings.

Key risks include loss of market share and macro weakness.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.32
If WJL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.83.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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CHARTS

BKW CMM DGT FPR HCW HMC MDR NWH PNR RWC SEK

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW - BRICKWORKS LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DGT - DIGICO INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FPR - FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HCW - HEALTHCO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HMC - HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MDR - MEDADVISOR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWH - NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PNR - PANTORO GOLD LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RWC - RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SEK - SEEK LIMITED

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