Weekly Reports | Apr 11 2025
This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis reckons the -17% fall in Arena REIT’s share price is overdone, and excluding Goodman Group ((GMG)), it has underperformed the sector by -13%.
In the broker’s assessment, the business model is defensive in the current uncertain macro backdrop while also being a beneficiary of likely interest rate cuts.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds. Target unchanged at $3.98.
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden increased its forecasts for BlueScope Steel’s 2H25 earnings, with the key driver being a widening in the US and Asian steel spreads.
The broker expects the Trump administration’s tariffs to benefit local US steelmakers via higher demand and reduced competition.
The analyst also increased the 2H25 spread estimate for benchmark Asian steel to US$195/t from US$190/t, with the revised numbers now in line with the company’s guidance.
Target rises to $24.00 from $23.20. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight on recent share price pullback.
CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden is forecasting below-consensus production and sales for Champion Iron in the March quarter due to the planned semi-annual mill relining. The broker’s costs forecast is also above consensus.
Additionally, the broker has pushed back the forecast for DRPF commissioning to the December quarter from September quarter, though it didn’t cite a reason.
Target price drops to $7.02 from $7.34 due to revised timing for DRPF start and ramp-up, plus lower near-term sales price.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight to factor in potential value in DRPF, including further pricing premiums and undeveloped resources.
CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Noting the outperformance of gold stocks in 1Q25 vs the gold price, Goldman Sachs believes gold equities will continue to outperform the commodity this year. This would be on a combination of rising gold prices and lower unit costs.
In the medium term, the broker expects performance to be driven by margins/cash generation, improving balance sheet, and exploration upside, with M&A likely continuing.
Capricorn Metals upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the broker sees potential for continued margin performance at Karlawinda and net cash position even after funding expansion projects.
Target rises to $9.90 from $7.70.
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED ((FPH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
The key change in US President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement last week that has implications for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was nil tariff on Mexican imports and 10% tariff on NZ imports.
Jarden notes almost all of the company’s Mexico imports are compliant with United StatesMexicoCanada Agreement (USMCA), which would mean no tariff. Last month, the broker conducted an analysis on an assumption of a 25% Mexico imports tariff.
The broker’s revised estimate suggests the additional cost to the company would be NZ$30m in FY26, down from the previous analysis of NZ$100m. Factoring this into the forecasts, plus exchange rate changes, lowered the FY26 EPS estimate by -3%.
Target lifts to NZ$33.20 from NZ$30.10 on longer-term earnings upgrade and roll forward. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons has upgraded Hub24 to Overweight from Market Weight as the share price is well above its downward revised EPS estimates.
The broker believes the recent share selloff in the wealth platform companies has opened a rare opportunity to buy into these high-quality fintech businesses.
The analyst notes tariffs won’t impact the operating of these platforms but lower fees from reduced FUA balances would impact operating leverage. Hub24 is, however, less exposed due to its lower exposure to high net worth and pension phase cohorts.
Target price cut to $65.06 from $82.00.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons has upgraded Netwealth Group to Overweight from Market Weight. Despite lowering FY25-26 EPS forecasts by up to -11%, the broker believes the share price fall is overdone.
The broker reckons the recent share selloff in the wealth platform companies has opened a rare opportunity to buy into these high-quality fintech businesses.
The analyst notes tariffs won’t impact the operating of these platforms but lower fees from reduced FUA balances would impact operating leverage.
Target price cut to $25.12 from $32.54.
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ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage has offered to acquire the remaining shares in Abacus Storage King for $1.47/share.
The offer is at a -8% discount to NTA, but at a 27% premium to pre-offer close.
Moelis believes it is a positive outcome for shareholders and has a relatively high probability of succeeding in the current form.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target rises to $1.47 from $1.38.
LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden has assessed the impact of US tariffs on Lovisa Holdings, noting the company could take steps to mitigate margin impact.
However, it is also likely to face additional headwind from volume decline due to the impact of higher prices and falling consumer sentiment.
The broker’s scenario analysis suggests tariffs on China would lower FY25 profit before tax by -3% and by -11% in FY26.
Relocating supply chains is one of the options, but it is difficult given the lack of cost-effective suppliers near the US and with other Southeast Asian locations also impacted by tariffs.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target cut to $22.87 from $29.02.
PRAEMIUM LIMITED ((PPS)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons believes the recent share selloff in the wealth platform companies has opened a rare opportunity to buy into these high-quality fintech businesses.
The analyst notes tariffs won’t impact the operating of these platforms but lower fees from reduced FUA balances would impact operating leverage.
In the case of Praemium, the broker lowered EPS forecasts following negative investment returns in late-March and early April, and sees elevated outflow risks in the short-term.
Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight. Target cut to 67c from 89c.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | ARENA REIT | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 2 | BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED | Buy | Sell | Jarden | |
| 3 | CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Goldman Sachs | |
| 4 | CHAMPION IRON LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| 5 | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| 6 | HUB24 LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 7 | NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 8 | ABACUS STORAGE KING | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
| 9 | LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 10 | PRAEMIUM LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAR | Astral Resources | $0.16 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.41 | 0.39 | 5.13% |
| ADT | Adriatic Metals | $4.04 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.30 | 4.75 | -9.47% |
| AEL | Amplitude Energy | $0.17 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.34 | 0.35 | -2.86% |
| ALK | Alkane Resources | $0.68 | Moelis | 1.00 | 0.75 | 33.33% |
| ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | $63.13 | Jarden | 68.00 | 67.00 | 1.49% |
| AOV | Amotiv | $7.44 | Wilsons | 9.39 | 12.70 | -26.06% |
| APZ | Aspen Group | $3.05 | Moelis | 3.30 | 3.15 | 4.76% |
| ASK | Abacus Storage King | $1.45 | Moelis | 1.47 | 1.38 | 6.52% |
| ASX | ASX | $67.00 | Goldman Sachs | 62.00 | 61.00 | 1.64% |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $1.15 | Goldman Sachs | 1.45 | 1.50 | -3.33% |
| BRG | Breville Group | $27.48 | Goldman Sachs | 35.00 | 40.80 | -14.22% |
| Jarden | 32.10 | 32.60 | -1.53% | |||
| BRI | Big River Industries | $1.25 | Petra Capital | 1.78 | 2.00 | -11.00% |
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | $21.39 | Jarden | 24.00 | 23.20 | 3.45% |
| CIA | Champion Iron | $4.37 | Jarden | 7.02 | 7.34 | -4.36% |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | $8.89 | Goldman Sachs | 9.90 | 7.70 | 28.57% |
| Jarden | 9.04 | 8.04 | 12.44% | |||
| EGG | Enero Group | $0.61 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.50 | 2.00 | -25.00% |
| EGL | Environmental Group | $0.22 | Moelis | 0.36 | 0.35 | 2.86% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $7.14 | Goldman Sachs | 7.40 | 5.35 | 38.32% |
| Jarden | 5.66 | 4.68 | 20.94% | |||
| GNP | GenusPlus Group | $2.50 | Moelis | 3.39 | 3.22 | 5.28% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $3.08 | Goldman Sachs | 3.40 | 2.80 | 21.43% |
| GQG | GQG Partners | $2.00 | Jarden | 3.05 | 3.25 | -6.15% |
| GYG | Guzman y Gomez | $33.74 | Wilsons | 42.88 | 42.47 | 0.97% |
| HMC | HMC Capital | $4.94 | Goldman Sachs | 10.90 | 12.30 | -11.38% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $64.21 | Wilsons | 65.06 | 82.00 | -20.66% |
| HVN | Harvey Norman | $4.91 | Jarden | 5.40 | 4.90 | 10.20% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.29 | Goldman Sachs | 2.09 | 2.08 | 0.48% |
| LAM | Laramide Resources | $0.67 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.25 | 1.30 | -3.85% |
| LNW | Light & Wonder | $135.83 | Jarden | 197.00 | 200.00 | -1.50% |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | $23.96 | Jarden | 22.87 | 29.02 | -21.19% |
| MDR | MedAdvisor | $0.09 | Moelis | 0.11 | 0.19 | -42.11% |
| MFG | Magellan Financial | $7.27 | Goldman Sachs | 8.75 | 10.20 | -14.22% |
| Jarden | 8.55 | 9.35 | -8.56% | |||
| Jarden | 8.60 | 9.35 | -8.02% | |||
| MM8 | Medallion Metal | $0.24 | Petra Capital | 0.36 | 0.31 | 16.13% |
| MPA | Mad Paws | $0.07 | Taylor Collison | 0.13 | 0.12 | 8.33% |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | $79.08 | Goldman Sachs | 95.50 | 78.50 | 21.66% |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | $20.28 | Jarden | 18.10 | 15.40 | 17.53% |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | $26.36 | Wilsons | 25.12 | 32.54 | -22.80% |
| NXG | NexGen Energy | $7.29 | Petra Capital | 14.10 | 14.33 | -1.61% |
| NXL | Nuix | $2.48 | Moelis | 3.07 | 4.95 | -37.98% |
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $16.57 | Jarden | 22.05 | 22.60 | -2.43% |
| PPS | Praemium | $0.67 | Wilsons | 0.67 | 0.89 | -24.72% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $17.42 | Jarden | 22.75 | 25.30 | -10.08% |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | $0.56 | Goldman Sachs | 0.56 | 0.65 | -13.85% |
| Jarden | 0.54 | 0.69 | -21.74% | |||
| Jarden | 0.59 | 0.69 | -14.49% | |||
| PXA | Pexa Group | $11.44 | Jarden | 15.50 | 15.55 | -0.32% |
| QAL | Qualitas | $2.33 | Jarden | 3.95 | 4.00 | -1.25% |
| RRL | Regis Resources | $4.39 | Goldman Sachs | 4.15 | 2.85 | 45.61% |
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.82 | Petra Capital | 4.29 | 4.36 | -1.61% |
| XRO | Xero | $156.09 | Jarden | 180.00 | 177.00 | 1.69% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED
Steel & Scrap Overnight Price: $20.50
Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2)
Jarden increased its forecasts for BlueScope Steel’s 2H25 earnings, with the key driver being a widening in the US and Asian steel spreads.
The broker expects the Trump administration’s tariffs to benefit local US steelmakers via higher demand and reduced competition.
The analyst also increased the 2H25 spread estimate for benchmark Asian steel to US$195/t from US$190/t, with the revised numbers now in line with the company’s guidance.
Target rises to $24.00 from $23.20. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight on recent share price pullback.
This report was published on April 3, 2025.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $20.50 Difference: $3.5
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 31.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 104.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.60.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of -43.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 176.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.1, implying annual growth of 108.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HMC HMC CAPITAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $5.33
Goldman Sachs rates ((HMC)) as Buy (1)
Goldman Sachs notes HMC Capital will receive $150m interim FY25 dividend in mid-April from its private equity fund HMC Capital Partners Fund 1 (HMCCP) and retain $230m ongoing investment in the fund.
The fund name will change to HMC Capital Partners Fund II with a shift in strategy towards both listed and unlisted opportunities, and the performance fee hurdle will be lifted to 9% from 7%.
The broker cut FY25/26/27 EPS estimates by -7%/-16%/-8%, respectively, to reflect lower management fees and investment incomes and higher expenses.
Target cut to $10.90 from $12.30. Buy retained.
This report was published on April 1, 2025.
Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $5.57
If HMC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 96.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.9, implying annual growth of 180.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of -19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LAM LARAMIDE RESOURCES LIMITED
Uranium Overnight Price: $0.73
Canaccord Genuity rates ((LAM)) as Speculative Buy (1)
Not much to report from Laramide Resources’ FY24 result, but Canaccord Genuity is looking for positive news flows this FY, including final permit approval at the Churchrock-Crownpoint project in New Mexico.
The broker also expects a repeal of the Queensland uranium ban, noting Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) move last month to raise its interest in Laramide to 18.4% from 9.4% was with an eye on this possibility. If this happens, the broker sees a significant lift in interest in the stock.
Speculative Buy. Target $1.25.
This report was published on April 2, 2025.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.52
If LAM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.34.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.91.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
D2O DUXTON WATER LIMITED
Agriculture Overnight Price: $1.38
Petra Capital rates ((D2O)) as Buy (1)
Duxton Water has agreed with current manager Duxton Capital Australia to internalise the management team. The original management agreement is due to expire in July 2026, and a transition services agreement will now be put in place, subject to shareholder approval.
Petra Capital estimates the total payment to Duxton Capital Australia will equate to 3% of NAV post-tax, and the transition agreement amount is 29% higher than the current management fee forecast.
No changes to forecasts as the broker awaits more details in the independent expert report to be released in May.
Buy. Target unchanged at $2.10.
This report was published on April 7, 2025.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.725
If D2O meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.55.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GYG GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco Overnight Price: $31.10
Wilsons rates ((GYG)) as Overweight (1)
Guzman y Gomez recorded strong same-store sales growth in its Australian business in 3Q25, up 11.1% year-on-year versus 5.9%.
Wilsons’ notes network sales was up 24% to $290m, with Australia network contributing $268m, up 23%, Singapore $17m, and Japan $2m.
The company reaffirmed FY25 guidance for 31 store openings in Australia and other key metrics.
Overweight. Target of $42.47 is under review as the broker sees scope for a modest upgrade on likely upward revision to its 8.5% FY25 same-store sales growth forecast.
This report was published on April 8, 2025.
Target price is $42.47 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $11.37
If GYG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 146.01.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.9.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.74.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF - ARENA REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASK - ABACUS STORAGE KING
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIA - CHAMPION IRON LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CMM - CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FPH - FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOV - LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPS - PRAEMIUM LIMITED