Weekly Reports | Apr 17 2025
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED ((AEL)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden cut the forecast for Brent oil price for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026-27 to US$65/bbl from US$75/bbl. The broker also revised the AUD/USD forecast to 0.62 from 0.64 from April.
While OPEC-plus members would desire to keep oil prices near US$80/bbl, the broker believes that given oil markets' tendency to react negatively and quickly to any growth uncertainties, prices are likely to stay low.
The broker notes Amplitude Energy's March quarter gas prediction was -9% lower quarter-on-quarter, and will now look for FY25 production, costs and capex update in the quarterly release,
EPS forecast for FY25 trimmed to 3c from 4c, and for FY26 to $1.20 from $1.70 on lower oil prices and contracted gas prices.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target cut to 25c from 26c.
CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity revised forecasts for precious metals prices, and provided estimates for production and costs ahead of the March quarter update.
The broker lifted gold price forecasts in USD for the March quarter by 7.7% and around 10-12% each year until 2028, with the long-term price raised by 11.5%.
The AUD/USD forecasts were lowered until 2027, and left unchanged after that. This resulted in a bigger lift in gold price in AUD terms until 2027, with the forecasts thereafter in line with increases in USD price.
Silver prices were raised for the March quarter in USD terms but lowered for the rest of the forecast period, resulting in an increase in AUD terms until 2026, but lower from 2028.
For Capricorn Metals, the broker is forecasting a March quarter production of 31koz vs a consensus of 30koz. The forecast for costs is $1,408/oz vs consensus of $1,446.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target price rises to $10.60 from $8.70.
FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 earnings (EBITDA) and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
In addition to revisions to commodity prices, the broker cut the forecast for Fortescue's March quarter Pilbara iron ore shipments and pushed back Pilbara decarbonisation capex by six months. The broker also reduced Iron Bridge price realisations in the near term.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target cut to $15.30 from $16.20.
INFRATIL LIMITED ((IFT)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden notes CDC hosted an investor briefing, including a tour of the new Brooklyn campus in Melbourne.
The analyst notes capacity remains on track to double, with build-on completion of an additional 382MW under construction to reach 700MW in the next 1218 months. The earnings (EBITDA) run rate is anticipated to double over the next two years, with 80% already contracted.
Jarden emphasises CDC has a robust moat, and its data centres can service 3 tonnes per rack and over 200kW per rack, which is above other providers.
The broker values CDC based on Commonwealth Supers 12.04% stake auction price as a third-party valuation, which infers upside of around 10%20% control premium could be added if Infratil sold its stake.
Jarden retains Infratils target price at NZ$13. Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Underweight from Sell by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden expects Mineral Resources to downgrade FY25 guidance and in anticipation, lowered forecasts for shipment volumes and mining services.
Trucking haulage is the key issue, and the broker would like more disclosure on the underlying cause of truck rollovers, truck speeds etc.
March and June quarter forecasts have been downgraded, and the broker's revised FY25 shipment forecast is -11% below the lower bound of the company's guidance.
The analyst considers scenarios of Onslow proving to be a lower 25mtpa or 30mpta project. In the first scenario, the broker sees valuation fall to $13.30/share and in the second to $9.70/share. For now, the broker is maintaining an estimate for 30mt production in FY26, but sees risks skewed to the downside.
Target price cut to $16.20 from $20.00. Rating upgraded to Underweight from Sell.
See also MIN downgrade.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden notes Netwealth Group's 3Q25 custodial net flow of $3.454bn was in line with consensus, but funds under administration of $103.3bn came in -1.5% below consensus.
The wealth manager remains confident of the flow outlook and the broker has incorporated it in the forecasts, increasing the revenue margin forecast by 40bps on higher transaction fees and higher cash balances
However, the company also flagged higher costs ahead which, together with a subdued market outlook, resulted in a 0.4% rise to the FY25 EPS forecast but -4.4% fall to FY26.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight. Target cut to $24.30 from $24.95.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 EBITDA and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
For Sandfire Resources, the broker cut Matsa production forecast for March quarter, lifted long-run gold price estimates and cut medium-term copper, zinc and lead price forecasts.
FY25-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts cut by -2% and -12%, respectively.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $10.20 from $10.40.
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BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden cut the forecast for Brent oil price for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026-27 to US$65/bbl from US$75/bbl. The broker also revised the AUD/USD forecast to 0.62 from 0.64 from April.
While OPEC-plus members would desire to keep oil prices near US$80/bbl, the broker believes that given oil markets' tendency to react negatively and quickly to any growth uncertainties, prices are likely to stay low.
For the March quarter, the analyst forecasts Beach Energy to report a -4% decline in production on expectations of lower Cooper Basin oil and gas production. The broker will look for updates to FY25 guidance and cost.
EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -6.2% and by -19.2% for FY26 largely due to lower oil price forecasts.
Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral. Target cut to $1.19 from $1.38.
CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 EBITDA and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
In addition to revisions to commodity prices, the broker increased costs at Coronado Global Resources' US operations.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to forecast for negative free cash flow of -US$200m in 2025. Target cut to $0.35 from $1.05.
DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 EBITDA and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
In addition to revisions to commodity prices, the broker increased freight cost estimates for Deterra Royalties. EBITDA forecast for FY25 lifted by 1% but cut by -2% for FY26.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target cut to $3.60 from $4.70.
KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden cut the forecast for Brent oil price for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026-27 to US$65/bbl from US$75/bbl. The broker also revised the AUD/USD forecast to 0.62 from 0.64 from April.
While OPEC-plus members would desire to keep oil prices near US$80/bbl, the broker believes that given oil markets' tendency to react negatively and quickly to any growth uncertainties, prices are likely to stay low.
For the March quarter, the analyst expects Karoon Energy to report a -11% q/q decline in production to 2.3mmboe due to the impact of scheduled maintenance in Brazil. Sales revenue is forecast to be -33% down q/q due to lower cargoes sold.
EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -8.2% and by -14.3% for FY26 largely due to lower oil price forecasts.
Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target cut to $1.53 from $2.05.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 EBITDA and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
In addition to revisions to commodity prices, the broker lowered Mineral Resources' Ashburton and Iron Valley iron ore shipment forecasts for the March quarter. The broker is also forecasting slower Ashburton ramp-up and increased C&M capex.
Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY25-26 cut by -9% and -20%, respectively.
Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target cut to $18 from $30.
See also MIN upgrade.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
A recent China trip and a review of supply/dynamics due to the impact of global tariffs have resulted in Goldman Sachs downgrading most commodity price forecasts while raising estimates for precious metals.
This resulted in downgrades to 2025 and 2026 EBITDA and price targets for most companies under their coverage.
In addition to revisions to commodity prices, the broker included 30% sale of Blackwater for US$1.08bn into Whitehaven Coal's forecasts. EBITDA forecasts for FY25-26 lowered by -28% and -58%, respectively.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target cut to $5.70 from $9.20.
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