INFRATIL LIMITED (IFT)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

22/05/2024

3

Neutral

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Infratil reported FY24 EBITDAF of NZ$864m, 3% above midpoint guidance, with a final dividend per share of NZ$0.13 per share, notes Macquarie.

Management guided to FY25 EBITDAF of NZ$920m, which is -7% below the Macquarie analyst's estimate due to higher development expenses.

The broker notes guidance for Canberra Data Centres' FY25 EBITDAF missed by -9%, but sees encouraging signs in stabilising utilisation rates. Gearing is below the group's 30% target at 20% which could offer more capacity, according to Macquarie.

EPS estimates for FY25-FY26 have been revised by -3% and -6%, respectively. 

Neutral rating unchanged and the target price lowered to NZ$10.42 from NZ$10.49.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.21 cents and EPS of 19.12 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.95 cents and EPS of 21.34 cents.

29/05/2024

2

Overweight

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According to Jarden, Infratil reported better than expected FY24 EBITDA of NZ$864.1m, above the guidance range and both internal and consensus forecasts, driven by full consolidation of One NZ and growth in CDC.

Management's FY25 like-for-like EBITDA guidance was well below consensus and the analyst's estimates, due to flat expectations for One NZ and below CDC earnings.

Despite this, management remains confident in CDC's EBITDA growth rates accelerating from FY26, meeting the broker's estimates of 30%-40%p.a. from 25% in FY25.

The analyst's earnings forecasts are adjusted materially for FY25 and FY26.

Overweight rating is maintained and the target price raised to NZ$11.50 from NZ$11.30.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 3.42 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.32 cents and EPS of 9.33 cents.