In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 23-05-25

This story features CORE LITHIUM LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXO

The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Core Lithium’s updated restart study for the Finniss lithium project contained a pre-feasibility study and focused on a conceptual underground mine plan.

Jarden notes the study showed a halving in mining unit costs to $63-73/t from $120/t in last year’s update. It also showed a significantly lower pre-development capex of -$170-200m from -$282m estimated before.

The challenge for the company, in the broker’s view, is to secure funding, and non-dilutive funding would be an upside risk.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target lifted to 10c from 7c.

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EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

After reassessing Eagers Automotive’s forecasts for FY25, Canaccord Genuity has concluded factors such as April holiday timings and Federal election in 1H25 mean earnings skew to 2H is likely.

No change to FY25 net profit forecast of $400.5m, but the broker now sees $182.4m in 1H and the remaining in 2H.

The broker believes bolt-on acquisitions will continue to be the company’s strategy, but at some point, it will need to boost the balance sheet.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target lifted to $17.20 from $17.00 on valuation roll-forward.

AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) Downgrade to Underweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Avita Medical’s 1Q25 revenue missed Wilsons’ forecast by -21%, and while the company reiterated FY25 guidance of US$100-106m, the broker isn’t as optimistic and is forecasting US$92.2m.

The company announced a reduction in field sales team headcount to 82 from 108 to cut costs, but the broker isn’t warming up to the strategy to redeploy them in sales from the service-based model.

The key question is whether the 2Q25 12-month revenue covenant target of US$78m will be met. The broker’s US$79.4m forecast suggests it will, but it comes with a caution the venture debt lender may be less tolerant of another covenant miss.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Market Weight. Target cut to $1.92 from $3.20.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
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1	CORE LITHIUM LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Jarden
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2	AVITA MEDICAL INC	Sell	Neutral	Wilsons
3	EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change
ALD	Ampol	$25.34	Goldman Sachs	31.80	30.80	3.25%
ALL	Aristocrat Leisure	$60.54	Goldman Sachs	74.00	77.00	-3.90%
			Jarden	64.00	68.00	-5.88%
APE	Eagers Automotive	$17.65	Canaccord Genuity	17.20	17.00	1.18%
AVH	Avita Medical	$2.03	Wilsons	1.92	3.20	-40.00%
AZJ	Aurizon Holdings	$2.94	Goldman Sachs	3.60	3.70	-2.70%
BGL	Bellevue Gold	$0.90	Canaccord Genuity	1.50	N/A	N/A
BMN	Bannerman Energy	$2.71	Petra Capital	5.33	4.23	26.00%
BTR	Brightstar Resources	$0.66	Canaccord Genuity	1.50	0.08	1775.00%
CIP	Centuria Industrial REIT	$3.09	Moelis	3.73	3.72	0.27%
CSL	CSL	$246.89	Jarden	317.61	314.37	1.03%
CXO	Core Lithium	$0.09	Jarden	0.10	0.07	42.86%
			Petra Capital	0.14	0.59	-76.27%
DSK	Dusk Group	$0.84	Canaccord Genuity	1.40	1.60	-12.50%
GDF	Garda Property	$1.15	Moelis	1.60	1.57	1.91%
GTK	Gentrack Group	$10.88	Wilsons	11.82	12.10	-2.31%
IAG	Insurance Australia Group	$8.64	Jarden	8.00	7.70	3.90%
IMM	Immutep	$0.29	Canaccord Genuity	0.98	0.95	3.16%
LAU	Lindsay Australia	$0.70	Wilsons	0.99	0.87	13.79%
MM8	Medallion Metal	$0.25	Petra Capital	0.45	0.43	4.65%
MVF	Monash IVF	$0.80	Wilsons	1.40	1.43	-2.10%
NEU	Neuren Pharmaceuticals	$13.12	Petra Capital	31.45	31.19	0.83%
NWS	News Corp	$49.87	Jarden	54.00	53.00	1.89%
NXS	Next Science	$0.09	Wilsons	N/A	0.27	-100.00%
ORA	Orora	$1.96	Jarden	2.35	2.40	-2.08%
PNV	PolyNovo	$1.31	Wilsons	1.62	1.85	-12.43%
PSC	Prospect Resources	$0.14	Canaccord Genuity	0.45	0.40	12.50%
SLC	Superloop	$2.60	Canaccord Genuity	2.78	2.58	7.75%
			Jarden	2.60	2.50	4.00%
			Wilsons	N/A	2.48	-100.00%
XRO	Xero	$182.09	Goldman Sachs	205.00	201.00	1.99%
			Jarden	190.00	180.00	5.56%
Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change

More Highlights

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium Overnight Price: $2.62 

Petra Capital rates ((BMN)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital outlines the ongoing works at Etango by Bannerman Energy with cash at March quarter end at $68.8m and some -$26m committed for future works.

The analyst explains first production is currently delayed by a quarter even though the final investment decision has been deferred by a year since initiating coverage on the stock in May 2024.

Bannerman is believed to be waiting for higher pricing which should be evidenced as utilities return to the market, Petra details.

The final investment decision is expected in 2H 2025 with the stock up around 70% in recent weeks and short interest sitting at some 15-days average trading volume to cover.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $5.33 target price.

This report was published on May 16, 2025.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $2.71
If BMN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 113.91.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAA    CAPRAL LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina Overnight Price: $11.04 

Taylor Collison rates ((CAA)) as Outperform (2)

Taylor Collison believes Capral remains undervalued, with the market underestimating the potential for residential volumes headwind to become a tailwind in 2H25.

Specifically, the analyst notes approvals data for detached dwellings has been positive y/y for a number of quarters.

The broker also sees no direct impact on volumes from the 25% tariff on Australian aluminium, given operations are largely domestic, but remains watchful.

The company is also expected to benefit from productivity initiatives, including trade center acquisitions and upgrade projects in Penrith and Smithfield.

Minor downward revisions to forecasts. Outperform retained. No target price.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Current Price is $11.04. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 101.50 cents and EPS of 169.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.52.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 126.30 cents and EPS of 210.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.24.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences Overnight Price: $245.21 

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2)

Jarden’s Overweight rating on CSL is largely based on expectations of a recovery in gross margin at its Behring division, and a majority of that is linked to donor fees.

The broker recently surveyed the company’s sites for donor fee trends, and discovered a -10.9% reduction for new donors and -8.9% cut for return donors. For context, donor fees were raised during covid to boost collections.

The analyst expects gross margin improvements of 150bps in 2H26 and 115bps in 1H27 from fee reductions identified, and has factored in margin improvements from other sources.

All in all, the broker is now more confident of its forecast for 220bps margin improvement in 2H26 and 280bps in 1H27.

Overweight. Target rises to $317.61 from $314.37.

This report was published on May 18, 2025.

Target price is $317.61 Current Price is $245.21 Difference: $72.4
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 33.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 403.39 cents and EPS of 926.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1011.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 463.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 443.57 cents and EPS of 996.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1162.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 527.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

D2O    DUXTON WATER LIMITED

Agriculture Overnight Price: $1.53 

Petra Capital rates ((D2O)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital acknowledges its previous concerns on Duxton Water no longer exist, with weather-related headwinds turning into tailwinds, the company is now debt-free, and there’s an opportunity to internalise management.

The broker notes earnings and cash flow are likely to improve significantly as the climate pattern moves from La Ninas into a drier period.

The analyst believes the recent share price rally doesn’t fully capture the positives.

Buy. Target retained at $2.10.

This report was published on May 19, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.57
If D2O meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs Overnight Price: $1.15 

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1)

Garda Property has upgraded guidance for the second time in FY25, Moelis notes, with funds from operations (FFO) guidance lifted by 12% in February following a 17% rise in August.

The broker attributes earnings growth to an expanding lending book supported by capital release from the North Lakes asset sale, expected to settle in August 2025.

Post-sale, net debt is forecast to reduce to -$157m or around 28%, providing flexibility for acquisitions, developments or further lending. Buy rating retained. Target price raised to $1.60 from $1.57.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.455
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.34.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF    MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.85 

Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Overweight (1)

Wilsons reviewed Monash IVF’s outlook following the embryo mix-up incident that the company was aware of in February but confirmed in April following a media report.

A review is underway, with findings expected in the coming weeks. The broker believes it will likely be characterised as a rare, one-off incident and will have a modest financial and reputational impact.

FY26-27 revenue forecast cut by -2%. The broker highlights the company targeted 200bps EBITDA expansion by FY27 at the 1H25 result, and it is forecasting only a 100bps increase mainly from international portfolio contribution.

Overweight. Target weakened to $1.40 from $1.43.

This report was published on May 13, 2025.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.55
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 52.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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