Daily Market Reports | 8:40 AM
This story features COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets toyed with all-times highs before the Dow and S&P500 pulled back, while a record high for Nvidia took the Nasdaq100 to a closing record high.
In Australia, CommBank ((CBA)) posted a fresh record high of $191.40 with pundits flashing the big $200 as the next stop.
ASX200 futures are suggesting the market will take a breather today, pointing to a -0.47% decline.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8497.00 | – 40.00 | – 0.47% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8559.20 | + 3.70 | 0.04% |
| S&P500 | 6092.16 | – 0.02 | – 0.00% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19973.55 | + 61.02 | 0.31% |
| DJIA | 42982.43 | – 106.59 | – 0.25% |
| S&P500 VIX | 16.76 | – 0.72 | – 4.12% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.29 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| USD Index | 97.33 | – 0.23 | – 0.24% |
| FTSE100 | 8718.75 | – 40.24 | – 0.46% |
| DAX30 | 23498.33 | – 143.25 | – 0.61% |
Good morning
As the June quarter draws to an end, markets are toying with breaking through all time record highs, while July is shaping up to be full of potential risk events with the looming tariff pause ending on July 9, and Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ to be passed.
Australia’s May CPI Print: Tony Sycamore, IG
The Monthly CPI indicator rose by 2.1% YoY in May, easing from 2.4% in April, below consensus expectations of 2.3%. The ex-volatile measure eased to 2.7% in May from 2.8% prior. Annual trimmed mean inflation dropped to 2.4% YoY in May from 2.8% prior, below market forecasts of 2.5%, marking the lowest rate since November 2021.
The largest contributor to the annual movement was Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9%). This was followed by Housing (+2.0%) and Alcohol and tobacco (+5.9%).
Since the data release, the probability of an RBA rate cut in July has risen to 93%, and there are now -78bp of RBA rate cuts priced between now and December, which would see the RBA’s cash rate finish the year at 3.10%.
What happened overnight: extract ANZ Bank Australian Morning Focus
US equity markets were more robust overnight than their European counterparts. The S&P500 was unchanged, whereas in Europe, the Euro Stoxx50 closed down-0.9% and the FTSE100 was down -0.5%.
The yield on the US 10yr bond was broadly unchanged. Oil prices firmed, with WTI futures up 1.2% to US$65.2/bbl, but still well off their peaks as Middle East geopolitical risks are perceived as having eased. Gold was up 0.3% to US$3,333.0/oz.
US new home sales fell -13.7% MoM to a 623k annual rate in May. The fall was prominent in the South (-21.0%), followed by the Midwest (-7.1%) and West (-5.4%). Sales were up 32.1% in the Northeast. The median sales price of new houses sold was US$426,600 in May, up 3.7% m/m.
NATO leaders agreed to boost their defence spending to 5% of GDP. Spain is refusing to increase its spending to that level, choosing 2.1% instead, which prompted a threat from US President Trump to double tariffs on the country.
Fed speakers continue to sing from different hymn sheets. Overnight, Boston Fed President Collins (voting member) said that data are showing early signs of tariff-driven price increases, with most price changes likely to happen over coming quarters. She characterised the economy as solid, noting the labour market data point to a modest deceleration.
This backdrop supports her stance of adopting an ‘actively patient’ approach to monetary policy. She expects policy normalisation to resume later in the year. Her remarks suggest she could be in the camp of FOMC members who expect just one or two -25bp cuts later this year.
Her broad views are largely consistent with Fed Chair Powell’s guidance during the post-Fed meeting conference and, more recently, with his testimony before Congress. Powell’s comments to the Senate Committee echoed his remarks to the House Committee a day before.
Crude oil prices lifted after President Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but maintained that he was not giving up his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign. The comments came as the US seeks to hammer out a new trade framework with China and climb down from the tariff war.
Easing tension in the Middle East saw the market return its focus to fundamentals. US government data showed the US driving season is in full swing after a slow start. The country’s crude oil inventories fell for the fifth straight week, dropping -5.8mbbl to sit at an 11-year seasonal low. Gasoline inventories also saw a strong drawdown, falling -2,075kbbl last week.
Global gas prices were mixed as easing supply concerns were offset by the need to stockpile fuel for the winter. The cessation of hostilities has seen traders turn attention to refilling depleted storage facilities. Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, has lagged its neighbours in refilling storage facilities.
North Asia LNG prices were relatively unchanged. LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose 5.14% to 2.25mt on 22 June from a week earlier, according to data from the trade ministry.
Gold steadied as traders weighed up easing tensions in the Middle East with a comment from Fed Chair Powell that the US central bank is struggling to determine the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. He also noted it makes sense to move slowly in times of uncertainty.
Copper rose for a fourth day, even amid signs the LME squeeze is abating. Contracts for immediate delivery traded at a premium of US$98/t to the LME benchmark 3mth contract, down from US$398/t earlier this week.
Supplies in LME warehouses have been partly drained due to record shipments to the US ahead of upcoming tariffs. However, strong demand from China has also played its part.
Iron ore futures threatened to record a new year-to-date low as robust supplies and lower steel production in China weighs on sentiment. Iron ore shipments from the two largest exporters have set records for the month of May. Exports from Port Hedland increase to 53.1mt last month, up 13.7% from April.
This takes year to date volumes to 233.4mt, the highest in data going back to 2010. The world’s second largest exporter, Brazil, also saw a rise in shipments in May, sending out 35.1mt, according to customs data. This comes as steel production in China moderates.
Trump’s Two-Week Fuse: Extract Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
Trump’s next two weeks look less like a presidential schedule and more like a demolition countdown. With a sputtering Israel-Iran ceasefire smouldering in the background, and a self-imposed July 4 deadline for his tax-and-spend blockbuster, the president is about to test whether he can juggle nitro-glycerine while tap-dancing on a minefield.
On July 9, the tariff pause that briefly put global markets on life support officially expires. That’s when the real fireworks begin. The president, ever the pyromaniac-in-chief when it comes to global trade, is poised to relight the fuse he snuffed out in April. If he goes through with another salvo of levies, it won’t just rattle supply chains, it’ll carpet-bomb what’s left of business confidence.
Meanwhile, he’s strong-arming a fractious Republican caucus to rubber-stamp his fiscal bazooka: a sweeping package that cuts taxes, slashes Medicaid, and torches green energy credits. Trump’s pitch? It’s economic rocket fuel. But the CBO might call it a budgetary bonfire with deficit hawks quietly eyeing the exits as Medicare and Social Security chew through the balance sheet.
Markets, meanwhile, are staring down the barrel of another tariff tantrum. “Liberation Day” in April already cratered risk appetite. The clock is ticking, and there’s still no deal with key trading partners. Trump can either pull back or double down, and history suggests he prefers to gamble with gasoline.
There’s no formal process for exemptions. You want out? You plead your case directly to the Oval Office ringmaster. It’s dealmaking by roulette wheel, and even Trump’s allies admit it’s exhausting the business community. Companies aren’t just delaying investment, they’re building contingency plans for chaos.
And chaos is exactly what this stretch feels like. With Trump as the sole throttle on trade, taxes, and geopolitical pressure points, the question isn’t whether the next two weeks will be volatile, it’s what kind of explosion we’re in for. Whether it’s a fiscal blowback, a foreign policy backdraft, or another tariff supernova, one thing’s clear: Trump’s fuse is lit. And the countdown has begun.
Corporate news in Australia
-South32’s ((S32)) sale of a Columbian mine hits a snag over a tax dispute which is in its fifth year.
-DroneShield ((DRO)) was the top performing stocks on the ASX300 rising 19.89% after it won $61.6m in European anti-drone contracts with deliveries expected by 3Q2025.
-PointsBet ((PBH)) approved MIXI’s $402m buyout rejecting Betr Entertainment’s ((BBT)) offer.
-Ian Macoun, Managing Director of Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)) sold $76.7m shares and is reinvesting in Metrics funds.
-Andrew Abercrombie’s family office, TAG has made a $286m non-binding takeover offer for Humm Group ((HUM)).
On the calendar today:
-US 1Q GDP
-US 1Q PCE
-US Jobles Claims
-US May durable goods
-US May Trade Bal
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3346.77 | + 9.55 | 0.29% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.22 | + 0.35 | 0.96% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.93 | + 0.03 | 0.56% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.17 | – 0.00 | – 0.18% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.72 | + 0.03 | 0.41% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.23 | + 0.01 | 0.71% |
| West Texas Crude | 65.02 | – 0.01 | – 0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 66.44 | – 0.38 | – 0.57% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 94.52 | – 0.11 | – 0.12% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 25 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8559.20 | 0.63% | 1.48% | 9.13% | 4.90% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ADH | Adairs | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter | ||
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| AV1 | Adveritas | Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy | Bell Potter |
| BHP | BHP Group | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| FMG | Fortescue | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Morgans | ||
| GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| KLS | Kelsian Group | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| Downgrade to Sell from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| MTS | Metcash | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| REA | REA Group | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| REH | Reece | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| SMP | SmartPay | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BBT - BETR ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DRO - DRONESHIELD LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUM - HUMM GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PNI - PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED