The Overnight Report: Gold & Big Tech Soar

This story features ASX LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASX

The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Heavyweight technology stocks pulled the S&P500 and Nasdaq to new all time highs, with gold rallying past US$3,700.

After a weak start to the week for the Australian share market on Monday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive opening on Tuesday.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8889.00	+ 41.00	0.46%
S&P ASX 200	8853.00	– 11.90	– 0.13%
S&P500	6615.28	+ 30.99	0.47%
Nasdaq Comp	22348.75	+ 207.65	0.94%
DJIA	45883.45	+ 49.23	0.11%
S&P500 VIX	15.69	+ 0.93	6.30%
US 10-year yield	4.03	– 0.03	– 0.66%
USD Index	96.96	– 0.19	– 0.20%
FTSE100	9277.03	– 6.26	– 0.07%
DAX30	23748.86	+ 50.71	0.21%

Good Morning,

Yesterday, the benchmark ASX200 retreated -11.90 points or -0.13% to 8,853 on the first day of the week.

Seven of 11 sectors finished higher, but a large drop in the healthcare and materials sector resulted in a net loss for the session.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research extract

The S&P500 gained 0.5%, led by tech mega caps and lacking breadth. The Nasdaq was 0.9% higher. Tesla rose more than 3%, erasing its 2025 losses as Elon Musk bought $1 billion worth of shares. Alphabet’s valuation rose to more than US$3 trillion.

Just 5 of 11 sectors in the S&P500 were in the green, with consumer staples, healthcare and materials down more than -0.8%. Big tech dominated gains in consumer discretionary, IT and communication services. The Nikkei rose 0.9%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was also 0.9% higher.

The AUD was 0.3% higher at 0.6670, having reached a fresh YTD high of 0.6674.

President Trump said companies should report their earnings every six months, “This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.” Public companies in the UK and Europe have not been required to report quarterly for around a decade or more, but many still choose to. 

The US and China reached a framework deal over TikTok after trade talks in Madrid. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the deal will be confirmed by President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping after a call on Friday.

The WSJ reports new flexibility on allowing ByteDance to sell its controlling stake is linked to Beijing’s efforts to secure a state visit from Trump. Beijing confirmed a “consensus” had been reached but cautioned China won’t sacrifice principles for a pact. China ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal and will investigate further, which Bessent called ‘poor timing’.

Ahead of the FOMC, President Trump posted on truth social “Too Late” MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND. HOUSING WILL SOAR!!!” 

Some adjustment away from currently moderately restrictive settings in recognition of the shifted balance of risks is not going to be enough to satisfy the President’s desire for much lower interest rates. Markets price -26bp for Wednesday, -68bp by year end, and the fed funds rate of 2.9% by the end of 2026. This week’s updated dot plot is very unlikely to endorse that depth of easing.

Yesterday, China activity data for August were a bit weaker than expected across the board. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.4% y/y (3.8% expected) as the tailwind from the consumer goods trade in scheme fades.

Industrial production growth was 5.2% y/y (5.6% expected), not helped by weather impacts in the month. More worryingly, Fixed asset investment was just 0.5% higher yoy YTD, its worst performance on record outside the pandemic.

The further loss of momentum in August adds pressure on policy makers to deliver more support.

Coming Up

·-A team of US officials are set to hold trade talks today in New Delhi.

·-NZ August’s Selected Prices will give insight into various segments of Q3 CPI.

-The RBA’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter gives a ‘fireside chat’ at the 2025 Australian Finance Industry Association conference. Interest will be in her reaction to Q2 GDP (particularly the consumer) and July Monthly CPI indicator, which were both (marginally) on the strong side of their August assessment.

·-UK Labour Market data is released. Still-elevated wages growth, at 4.8% yoy for annual regular pay growth in the private sector, has remained a source of concern for the BoE even as the unemployment rate has trended higher. Private earnings ex bonuses is seen at 4.7% 3m/yoy from 4.8%. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.7% in the three months to July.

·-US Retail Sales, Import Prices & Industrial Production. Retail Sales will give an update on consumer momentum, which has looked firmer in the past couple of months after some post liberation day weakness in April and May. A fall in auto sales will weigh on the headline, expected +0.2% mom, while the core control group is seen at 0.4% mom.

·-Canada’s CPI is expected to lift to 2.0% y/y from 1.7%, while the core measures hold steady near 3%. Its soft labour market data that has driven pricing to around 90% for a cut from the Bank of Canada Wednesday.

Anything but the Dollar, Stehen Innes, SPI Asset Management extract

Gold blasted into new record highs, fueled not just by a weaker greenback but by persistent whispers that China is buying multiples(10x) more than it officially discloses.

When China is stockpiling gold at record levels (and 10x the reported level), it tells you everything you need to know. The world’s second-largest economy isn’t scrambling for shiny inert metal out of some cultural fascination with jewelry. They’re hedging against fiat dilution, plain and simple.

When central banks and governments flood the system with liquidity, when debt towers over GDP, and when the reserve currency itself is being leaned on to fund perpetual deficits, the logical escape hatch is tangible assets. Gold isn’t a relic here, it’s the insurance policy against the slow erosion of purchasing power. China is simply reading the same playbook every trader does: when trust in paper wanes, bars beat bonds and the dollar.

Why doesn’t China fully disclose its gold buying? Simple, they don’t want the price to run away from them any faster than it already is. Every ton they quietly slip into reserves is another chunk off the market, but the minute they trumpet the scale, they bid against themselves. Better to buy in the shadows, let the market stay complacent, and keep accumulating before the rest of the world catches on. But now that the cat is out of the bag, is US$3800 on the cards sooner than expected?

Oil, meanwhile, paused in consolidation after last week’s whipsaw, neither breaking nor buckling. Bitcoin had its latest bout of nausea before steadying, a reminder that liquidity floods lift all boats, even the leakiest ones.

The retail crowd has led the party too, with flows into NDX and SPX accelerating through September. Often dismissed, retail has proven a leading indicator throughout most of this cycle, and right now, they are shouting conviction from the rafters.

That faith could be tested this week: Powell’s tone, the dot plot, and any reference to inflation being “anchored” or labour “weakening faster than expected” will dictate whether the rally stretches further or stalls out. The market wants speed; the Fed may prefer caution.

History tells us the first cut after a pause can cause a market hiccup, as investors ask what the Fed sees in the shadows. But longer-term patterns are bullish, the S&P has typically gained double-digits a year out. The risk is that markets have already front-run too much of that optimism, with volatility gauges flat lining as if turbulence were impossible.

The real story is one of concentration and complacency. The Mag7 continue to pull the cart while the rest of the market shuffles behind, yields drift lower as though recession risks are comfortably managed, and gold shines brightest when confidence should be highest.

This is the tension heading into Wednesday, the orchestra warming up, the audience leaning forward. Powell’s baton comes down next, and the market’s performance will depend on whether he plays a lullaby or a requiem.

Corporate news in Australia

-ASX ((ASX)) is facing Federal Court claims that CEO Helen Lofthouse bullied and marginalised a senior executive.

-Avita Medical’s ((AVH)) Recell GO skin therapy received CE mark approval under the E’’s Medical Device regulation.

-AMP ((AMP)) settles $120m super fees class action with $75m paid by AMP and the balance by insurers.

-Canva rules out ASX listing and Nasdaq IPO delayed until 2026.

-Paladin Energy ((PDN)) has appointed Macquarie Group ((MQG)) for a $300m equity raising.

-Firmus Technologies has raised $330m from investors including Nvidia, valuing the Singapore based business at $1.9bn for an enormous data centre AI factory in Tasmania.

-EMVision Medical Devices ((EMV)) is raising $10m through Bell Potter and Barrenjoey.

On the calendar today:

-EZ July Industrial Prod’n

-EZ Sept ZEW survey

-UK July Earnings

-UK July Unemployment

-US Aug Industrial Prod’n

-US Aug Retail sales

-CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) investor briefing

-DURATEC LIMITED ((DUR)) ex-div 2.50c (100%)

-QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) ex-div 16.50c (100%)

-QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) ex-div 9.90c (100%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	3720.12	+ 33.72	0.91%
Silver (oz)	43.24	+ 0.41	0.95%
Copper (lb)	4.72	+ 0.07	1.44%
Aluminium (lb)	1.23	+ 0.00	0.14%
Nickel (lb)	6.94	+ 0.05	0.72%
Zinc (lb)	1.35	+ 0.01	0.99%
West Texas Crude	63.29	+ 0.60	0.96%
Brent Crude	67.48	+ 0.49	0.73%
Iron Ore (t)	105.31	– 0.12	– 0.11%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	15 Sep 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Sep)	Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	8853.00	-0.13%	-1.34%	3.64%	8.50%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
OBM	Ora Banda Mining	Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform	Macquarie
SSM	Service Stream	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Ord Minnett
VNT	Ventia Services	Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms