Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Uranium investors juggle the swings in U308 spot price versus fundamentals and risk off sentiment with Cameco the latest to attract broker attention.
- Paladin shares pull back despite solid quarterly update
- Cameco coverage highlights strengths and constraints in uranium cycle
- TradeTech spot market activity signals risk-off tone
By Danielle Ecuyer
Risk-off sentiment sweeps up U308 companies
As risk off sentiment has gyrated through equity markets. Uranium stocks have not been immune.
Take Paladin Energy ((PDN)) as a case in point, the stock price has pulled back from a high of $10 in mid-October by around -15%, to current levels around $8.
By comparison, the weekly spot price indicator from industry consultants TradeTech has vacillated in a range between the mid-US$70s/lb and the low US$80s/lb over the past three months, peaking at US$82.75/lb in late September.
Last week TradeTech’s spot price indicator came in at US$76.90/lb, a slight rise of US$0.27/lb on the week prior.
Compared to the recent high, the spot price has retraced by some -7% while short interests have fallen to 11.74% as of November 11 from 12.14% a month earlier. Last week, available date showed the shorters had lowered their reported positions by an additional -2.12%.
Fundamentally, the company delivered another strong quarterly update in the later part of October, with 1Q26 production up 7% y/y, which met expectations for Canaccord Genuity while costs beat guidance at US$41.6/lb.
Although it might seem fanciful to draw too many conclusions from the price movements between the stock price and the U308 spot price, fundamentally Paladin delivered good news and short interests have lowered their positions as the share price weakened.
None of which is probably surprising, but the purpose of the exercise is to highlight how positive long term commodity themes like uranium and its associated adjacent, nuclear energy, are equally impacted by general market sentiment in the here and now.
Similar trends have been evident in the gold price and gold stocks.
Cameco, a quality exposure, just a but too pricey
Possibly an indication of how the U308 thematic is attracting attention is reflected in UBS initiating coverage of Cameco in the last week, stating the company offers “high quality exposure to the uranium thematic”.
UBS is yet another analyst to emphasise a positive outlook for uranium with the growth in demand expected to compound at an average rate of over 3.5% in the medium term, supporting an upside skew in U308 pricing.
As Cameco contracts at pricing above U308 spot, the company’s earnings have scope to grow significantly with volume optionality at McArthur River and Key Lakes via restarts and greenfield developments offering further upside.
Volume growth is not anticipated until the medium-term uranium price rises towards around US$100/lb which would be sufficient to support bringing more volume capacity on stream.
By comparison TradeTech’s Medium Term spot price indicator stands at US$87/lb, some -13% below the benchmark price UBS considers as sufficient to act as an incentive.
TradeTech’s Long Term price indicator stands at US$86/lb as at the end of October.
Another lever for Cameco is Westinghouse, which is emerging as a more important contributor for the company.
Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse which is expected to have at least 18 AP1000 units operational by the end of the decade and over 30 reactors with firm commitments either contracted or under construction. This includes 12 in China, 12 in the US and seven in Europe.
As outlined a couple of weeks ago, Washington’s commitment to Westinghouse is another positive fillip to the story.
For more details check out https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/04/uranium-week-washington-backs-westinhouse/.
UBS forecasts around CA$850m/yr in earnings in 2030 on the back of 6-8% compound average growth rate in revenue for the core business with margins at the top end of historical standards between 18-19%.
While Cameco’s shares have retreated from a recent 52-week high of CA$153.59 in late September, the analyst notes the price is still up 23% over the last three months and 72% year-to-date.
UBS does suggests at current levels around CA$118, the stock looks fully valued and is discounting a U308 real price around US$110/lb. UBS rates Cameco as Neutral with CA$140 target price.
U308 spot market activity in the week that was
In the week that was, TradeTech recorded eleven transactions in the U308 spot market totaling 850klbs.
The first part of the week, between Monday and Wednesday, spot trades were settled at a US$78/lb price, but as risk off sentiment flowed through, the spot price slipped with one 100klb transaction at US$77.50/lb and another two 100klb transactions at US$77.37/lb.
Four transactions last Friday included 100klbs for delivery at Cameco’s Canadian facility at US$76.50/lb and a second at US$77.50/lb for delivery at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility.
Friday closed with 100klb for December delivery at Orano’s facility in France at US$79.90/lb.
Energy and energy security remained topics of interest for global organisations.
Geo-political risks highlighted again in the nuclear supply chain
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025 highlighted the resurgence in nuclear power as governments look for reliable, low emissions energy to assist with decarbonisation.
Over 40 countries are now including nuclear into long-term strategies. The IEA also warned the nuclear sector is facing growing supply chain weakness with uranium mining, conversion and enrichment concentrated in a handful of countries and major investment will be needed across the fuel cycle to meet the expected growth in demand.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) were also noted as a central part of the future expansion and the UK government announced the selection of the Welsh island of Wylfa as the site for the first small modular reactor to generate up to 1.5GW of power.
The site originally had two gas-cooled reactors that were shut down in 2012 and 2015 and will now house the UK’s first three SMRs with potential to build up to eight.
Work is due to start in 2026 with completion scheduled by the mid-2030s (assuming no delays which have become the norm).
The latest update on ASX U308 short interests
Turning to short interests, Boss Energy ((BOE)) remains the most shorted stock on the ASX as at November 11 at 21.51%, up 0.69% over the week prior.
Paladin is in fourth position at 11.74%, while Lotus Resources ((LOT)) saw a slight uptick by 0.55% to 6.95%. Deep Yellow ((DYL)) shorts rose by 0.45% to 6.52%. Silex Systems’ ((SLX)) slipped -0.47% to 6.48%.
Further reading from FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/11/uranium-week-biggest-spot-fall-since-march/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/28/uranium-week-projecting-us150-lb-post-2026/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/21/uranium-week-jpmorgans-us1-5trn-plan/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/14/uranium-week-price-frenzy-fades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/17/paladin-energy-powering-on/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 14/11/2025 | 0.1000 |  – 9.09% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 14/11/2025 | 0.2000 | – 2.38% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 14/11/2025 | 0.0200 | -14.29% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% | |
| AKN | 14/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 14/11/2025 | 0.1000 | 8.24% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 14/11/2025 | 0.5200 | 0.94% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 14/11/2025 | 3.0900 | – 6.38% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 65.0% | |
| BOE | 14/11/2025 | 1.6900 | – 7.69% | $4.75 | $1.57 | 8.7 | $2.279 | 34.8% |
| BSN | 14/11/2025 | 0.0550 | – 1.79% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 14/11/2025 | 0.0300 | – 3.57% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 14/11/2025 | 0.2200 | 25.00% | $0.23 | $0.06 | $0.230 | 4.5% | |
| CXU | 14/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 14/11/2025 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 14/11/2025 | 1.6200 | – 3.63% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -322.0 | $1.930 | 19.1% |
| EL8 | 14/11/2025 | 0.2700 | – 6.90% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 14/11/2025 | 0.0020 | -33.33% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 14/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 100.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 14/11/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 14/11/2025 | 0.1700 | 10.00% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 14/11/2025 | 0.2700 | – 6.67% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 14/11/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 14/11/2025 | 0.7200 | – 1.39% | $0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 14/11/2025 | 0.1700 | – 8.33% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 98.0% | |
| MEU | 14/11/2025 | 0.0700 | – 1.49% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 14/11/2025 | 12.4900 | – 6.04% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.375 | 23.1% | |
| ORP | 14/11/2025 | 0.0500 | -16.67% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 14/11/2025 | 8.1300 | – 4.42% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 67.3 | $9.843 | 21.1% |
| PEN | 14/11/2025 | 0.4800 | -13.21% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 177.1% | |
| SLX | 14/11/2025 | 8.5200 | -10.20% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 31.5% | |
| TOE | 14/11/2025 | 0.4100 | – 5.75% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 14/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED