Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Activity remained subdued with Sprott boosting interest on Tuesday last week which carried into Wednesday while sector analysts revisited U308 price forecasts and stocks.
- Sprott returns to market as spot U308 rebounds
- Brokers lift medium-term uranium pricing forecasts into 2027
- Supply chain challenges for Lotus highlight near-term risks for producers
By Danielle Ecuyer
Buyers and sellers prefer the sidelines
With some assistance from the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which stepped back into the U308 spot market on Tuesday last week, acquiring 100klbs at US$77/lb, the TradeTech spot price indicator rose US$1.40 to US$77.15/lb on the week.
A second buyer entered the market on Tuesday and picked up 100klbs of U308 at US$77/lb, with a third transaction on Wednesday at US$77.15/lb.
Over the balance of the week, buyers stepped back into the market, but sellers raised their prices and no further transactions were recorded, leaving the spot price up 1.8% for the week.
Spot U3O8 is down -1.5% in 2025 and down -0.8% year-on-year.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator sits at US$86.50/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$86/lb.
No transactions and no new demand were observed in the term uranium market.
Updated commodity price outlook forecasts remain upbeat on U308 prospects
Sector analysts were active last week, penning updates on the outlook across commodity prices with U308 also drawing some attention.
Australian investment banking firm Barrenjoey expects the uranium price to pick up momentum into 2026 as utilities return to the market to secure medium and long-term supply.
Barrenjoey’s 2026 forecast remains unchanged at US$90/lb, with a pick-up in demand seen over the medium term. Its the price estimate for 2027 is raised to US$100/lb from US$90/lb.
The long-term price forecast is held at US$90/lb.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) remains Barrenjoey’s preferred U308 stock with an upgrade in rating to Neutral from Underweight and a lift in target price to $9.25 from $7.40.
An Underweight rating is ascribed to Boss Energy ((BOE)) with an unchanged $2.05 target price. Deep Yellow ((DYL)) was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with $2 target price, up from $1.85.
Over at UBS, the broker has raised its 2025 U308 price forecasts by 1% to US$75/lb from US$74/lb, while retaining 2026, 2027, 2028 forecast at US$80/lb, 2029 at US$85/lb and the long-term price projection at US$81/lb in nominal terms for 2030.
UBS rates Paladin as a Buy with a $9 target price and Boss Energy as Neutral with a $2.10 target.
Acid supply chain hiccup defers first shipment for Lotus
Macquarie noted sulphuric acid shortages have impacted on Lotus Resources’ ((LOT)) throughput at Kayelekera in the December quarter.
There have been problems with its Zambian supplier related to reduced Zambia and Congo copper production and truck shortages, as well as what the analyst suspects is increased demand from the gold sector.
Lotus has secured another South African supplier (a 10-day drive) to boost its Zambian contract (5-day drive) which is expected to even out and stabilise the acid supply chain.
The Kayelekera acid plant has been relocated to better ground and is due to come on stream in February.
Adjusting for the slower ramp-up in the December quarter and the time needed for accreditation from western converters, the analyst now anticipates the first export to take place in the June quarter.
Macquarie lowers Lotus’ EPS forecasts by -1.6c per share on reduced Kayelekera production and the deferred first sale. EPS estimate changes are minimal for FY27/FY28 at -0.1c per share for both fiscal years.
The stock remains Outperform rated with a 28c target price.
RBC Capital retains a positive long-term outlook on uranium with demand expected to grow alongside substantial expansion in nuclear capacity which could challenge supply.
This broker forecasts a U308 spot price of US$80/lb in 2026 and US$85/lb in 2027 with term price estimates of US$90/lb in 2026 and US$95/lb in 2027. The long-term price is set at US$100/lb post 2035 to incentivise new production.
RBC’s preferred stock exposures are NextGen Energy ((NXG)) and Cameco.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers (of which RBC is not one) generate a consensus target price for NextGen of $15.375, with one Buy rating from Shaw and Partners and a Speculative Hold rating from Bell Potter.
Petra Capital has a Buy rating and $17.14 target.
For more weekly updates on uranium from FNArena see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/09/uranium-week-ai-and-nuclear-converge/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/02/uranium-week-u308-catches-genesis-tailwinds/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/25/uranium-week-geo-politics-japans-restart/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/uranium-week-risk-off-rules/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/11/uranium-week-biggest-spot-fall-since-march/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 12/12/2025 | 0.0900 |  -10.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 12/12/2025 | 0.1600 | – 8.57% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 12/12/2025 | 0.0200 | -11.11% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% | |
| AKN | 12/12/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 12/12/2025 | 0.0600 | 3.03% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 12/12/2025 | 0.5100 | 0.99% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 12/12/2025 | 3.1100 | 4.33% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 64.0% | |
| BOE | 12/12/2025 | 1.6300 | 9.94% | $4.75 | $1.51 | 8.5 | $2.279 | 39.8% |
| BSN | 12/12/2025 | 0.0400 | 4.55% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 12/12/2025 | 0.0210 | -16.00% | $0.09 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 12/12/2025 | 0.2300 | 6.98% | $0.27 | $0.06 | $0.300 | 30.4% | |
| CXU | 12/12/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 12/12/2025 | 0.1700 | – 8.11% | $0.20 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 12/12/2025 | 1.7700 | 14.50% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -46.2 | $1.955 | 10.5% |
| EL8 | 12/12/2025 | 0.2500 | -12.90% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 12/12/2025 | 0.0020 | -33.33% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 12/12/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 12/12/2025 | 0.0600 | 16.67% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 12/12/2025 | 0.1500 | 7.14% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 12/12/2025 | 0.2300 | – 7.41% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 12/12/2025 | 0.0400 | -20.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 12/12/2025 | 0.6500 | – 1.43% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 12/12/2025 | 0.1700 | – 2.78% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 98.0% | |
| MEU | 12/12/2025 | 0.1300 | 71.43% | $0.15 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 12/12/2025 | 13.5300 | 0.00% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.375 | 13.6% | |
| ORP | 12/12/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 12/12/2025 | 8.9000 | 11.39% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 74.6 | $9.843 | 10.6% |
| PEN | 12/12/2025 | 0.5400 | 18.56% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 146.3% | |
| SLX | 12/12/2025 | 7.8000 | – 1.98% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 43.6% | |
| TOE | 12/12/2025 | 0.4400 | – 4.30% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 12/12/2025 | 0.0200 | -15.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED