Rudi's View | 10:25 AM
This story features WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH
We asked, you sent in your questions, then we sat down for one final video session to close off 2025. With AI summary for a quick read.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
We asked FNArena subscribers for input and questions ahead of our final video for calendar year 2025.
Not surprisingly, most questions related to the directionless state of Aussie equities post the August result season, as well as specific questions about companies that have been wonderful performers until a few months ago, with share prices sliding south ever since.
Many of those names are part of my selection of All-Weather performers on the local bourse. This week I sat down and addressed these issues.
The video (circa 20 minutes) has been uploaded to the FNArena Talks section on the website:
Via the FNArena channel on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32hDlDxW1mw
Most services have added AI functionality these days. Below is a summary of the video as compiled by Zoom’s AI assistant.
Navigating the Bear Market Storm
Rudi discussed the current market situation, describing it as a “perfect storm” and explaining bear markets occur more frequently than investors realisae.
He noted while some sectors, like cannabis stocks, have been in bear markets for years, others, such as energy stocks since 2022, are still experiencing them.
Rudi emphasised that the focus is currently on the downside, and those already invested should weather it out rather than sell at potentially unfavorable times.
He compared the current market to 2016, suggesting similar conditions could lead to a prolonged bear market, but also mentioned portfolio rotation and broader market momentum could eventually normalise the situation.
Market Rotation and Forecast Shifts
Rudi discussed the current market situation, noting early signs of portfolio rotation in July-August and a recent scare due to narratives about overvalued share markets.
He highlighted concerns about advisors making extreme forecasts reminiscent of the 2000-2002 market crash, and mentioned a shift in interest rate forecasts in Australia from expected cuts to potential hikes.
Rudi observed low investor appetite and poor market activity, predicting by mid-late January momentum might return for certain companies like WiseTech Global ((WTC)), Xero ((XRO)), CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), Car Group ((CAR)), and REA Group ((REA)).
Bear Market Opportunities
Rudi discussed the current market situation, emphasising while bear markets can be brutal, they often offer opportunities for those with cash and patience.
He noted while there are risks, historical insights suggest a positive outlook for next year, particularly given the significant share price falls.
Rudi also highlighted how simplistic market assessments and outdated perspectives can lead to misinterpretations of current market valuations, which should be higher than 10 years ago due to index composition changes.
Market Narratives and Valuation Insights
Rudi discussed market valuations and potential risks, emphasising while current valuations are higher than in the past, there is no immediate cause for concern if economic and bond market conditions remain stable.
He highlighted the importance of narratives in shaping market perceptions, drawing parallels to past examples like Amazon’s entry into Australia and the impact of Ozempic on healthcare stocks.
Rudi predicted markets will become increasingly narrative-driven in the future, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors.
Bear Market Investment Strategy
Rudi discussed his research approach and advised subscribers to focus on personal stock selection rather than following his preferences, emphasising the importance of diversification and market opportunities during bear markets.
He acknowledged the portfolio was too early in its investments, underestimating the duration and brutality of the bear market, particularly in Australian low-liquidity conditions.
Rudi encouraged subscribers to review his writings and expert analyses to make informed decisions about their investments.
Market Opportunities and Portfolio Adjustments
Rudi discussed the current market situation, highlighting the potential for manipulation of certain stock prices, such as TechnologyOne ((TNE)) and Pro Medicus ((PME)), which he believes remain high-quality companies despite recent price drops.
He mentioned reducing exposure to gold, treating it as an insurance asset rather than a speculative one.
Rudi also discussed adding new companies to the portfolio, including WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), which he believes is re-inventing itself and will become stronger, and Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)), which he sees as having a strong growth trajectory following its “merger” with Chemist Warehouse.
He encouraged investors to research these companies and consider adding them to their portfolios.
Rudi concluded by predicting the current market challenges will eventually pass and wished everyone a Merry Christmas.
(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)
P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi’s View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of ‘Rudi’s View’. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi’s View story has been published on the website.
P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAR - CAR GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL - CSL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PME - PRO MEDICUS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REA - REA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SIG - SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SOL - WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND COMPANY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WTC - WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: XRO - XERO LIMITED