Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
As Middle East war rolled markets, the U308 spot market took volatility in its stride while UBS points to NexGen as preferred stock exposure.
- Confidence in Paladin grows post site visit while Nambia's U308 supply roll set to grow
- NexGen Energy ticks lots of boxes and Rook 1 could be in the line of site for mining majors
- Weekly uranium price is stable against a global backdrop of uncertainty and energy market chaos
- Boss Energy no longer most shorted on the ASX
By Danielle Ecuyer
Namibia’s roll as a strategic U308 supplier
The conflict in the Middle East has focused investors’ attention again on the fragility of global energy supplies in a world of heightened geo-political tensions.
A point that is not lost on UBS post site visits to Namibia and Malawi, visiting the uranium operations of Paladin Energy ((PDN)), Bannerman Energy ((BMN)), Lotus Resources ((LOT)) and Deep Yellow ((DYL)).
Only Paladin is actively covered by the broker.
Although the projects on a company-specific level are at varying stages of development, UBS analysts project Namibian production to grow to 15% of global primary U308 supply by 2030, from 13% currently.
Observing some of the projects are not likely to challenge the cost curve to rival major suppliers, Canada and Kazakhstan, they are well positioned for the broker’s more upbeat stance on the outlook for nuclear energy, as well as the “strategic significance in an increasingly polarised world”.
Thirdly, the region, as more marginal cost producers, provides a role in incentive price formation for the industry. In other words, if uranium prices rise above the economic threshold for Namibian projects, developers are more likely to sanction new mines or expansions.
That price level becomes an indicator of where new supply enters the market.
The recent transaction between Bannerman Energy and China’s China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is considered indicative of the rising competition between major U308 consuming countries to secure supply in Namibia.
Like UBS, Canaccord Genuity sees the deal between Bannerman and CNNC, whereby the latter party would subscribe for a 45% interest in Bannerman’s UK subsidiary which owns 95% of Etango, as a “watershed event” which drops funding risk and provides offtake certainty.
Consideration includes US$294.5m into the joint venture company to be used towards construction funding for Etango and a direct payment of US$27m to Bannerman. A final investment decision is expected in the second half of 2026.
As stated, UBS does not cover Bannerman, but Canaccord retains a Speculative Buy rating with a slightly lower target of $5.80 from $5.99.
Post visit to Paladin’s operation, UBS gained greater confidence in the company’s water allocation, importantly not just for current needs but also for reaching nameplate capacity.
Equally, UBS analysts highlighted how impressed they were by the local/expat workforce and the oversight of contractors.
Langer Heinrich (Namibia) holds over a 233mlb resource while Patterson Lake South (Canada) could combine to produce nameplate capacity around 15mlbs.
Management is focusing on Langer Heinrich 2H26 production of 2.3mlb versus FY26 guidance of 4–4.4mlb, which is viewed as conservative, and UBS forecasts 4.55mlb production in FY26.
A Neutral rating and $12.60 target are retained.
A world class project with a big capex price tag
UBS initiated coverage of NexGen Energy ((NXG)) with a Buy rating and $21 target and sees it as the preferred exposure in the sector with exposure to a tier-1 project, including exploration upside.
The Rook 1 project is highlighted as multi-decadal in scale with capacity to produce CA$2.2bn/year in real steady-state earnings (EBITDA) as a base case estimate.
Sales are forecast to ramp up to around 20mlbs/year from 2033 compared to consensus estimates of circa 25mlbs/year for the first five years.
The spend is almost -CA$3bn and resource conversion is seen as able to move the project life over 20 years, which would assist with the large capex investment.
Real capex of -CA$2.85bn required is expected to be funded from multiple sources to obviate the need for further large equity raisings and significant debt leverage.
The updated forecast for real all-in-sustaining costs stands at around CA$28/lb, which offers potential circa US$70/lb margins in around 10 years.
UBS believes the market is far too concentrated on short-term headlines versus the upside potential this project’s leverage offers from higher uranium prices.
A rise of US$25/lb in U308 prices equals a lift in valuation of over 35% (all else remaining equal).
Canaccord also offered an update on NexGen, noting the licence to construct the Rook 1 uranium project from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission had been received after 14 days of being submitted.
The developer can now start construction, anticipated to take four years and could generate interest from the likes of Cameco, BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)).
The broker points to Rook 1 uranium supply at full production capacity of circa 30mlbs, or around 20% of global primary mine supply.
Speculative Buy rated with a $22.90 target price.
NexGen Energy is equally one of favoured industry exposures at Shaw and Partners whose view remains that uranium is in the early stages of a supercycle.
Shaw has a Buy, High Risk rating and $22.90 price target.
Boss encounters wet weather problems
Canaccord and Macquarie noted Boss Energy has flagged drummed production between 240–270klbs post heavy rain, limiting site access, and a step down in tenors due to a lack of new wellfields coming onstream.
Management has retained FY26 production guidance of 1.6mlbs, implying around 490–520klbs in 4Q26 which sits above Canaccord and consensus estimates of circa 430klbs.
The increase is identified as likely to come from the ramp-up of wellfield B5, which was commissioned earlier this year, and additional capacity via IX columns four and five.
Macquarie tweaks EPS lower for FY26 post uptake and up slightly for FY27 on reduced operating cost assumptions (due to lower production). Production is expected to restart post maintenance on March 14 and forecasts for 3Q26 are lowered to 270klbs drummed from 420klbs previously.
A new definitive feasibility study is expected with FY27 guidance in the September quarter, with Macquarie retaining an Underperform rating and $1.30 target price.
Honeymoon is seen as remaining a challenging project with wide spacing trials risky. Investors should await more clarity around results.
Canaccord conversely retains a Speculative Buy rating and unchanged $2.80 target, pointing to cash and liquid assets of $208m at the end of 2025, placing the company in a resilient position.
Compared to volatility in the oil and gas sector, the U308 spot price was relatively flat last week.
U308 market remained a relative sea of calm amidst global volatility
As highlighted by industry consultants TradeTech, the uranium spot price was unchanged over last week at US$85/lb with four transactions over the period.
One deal was conducted on the Monday at US$87/lb which remained the price until Thursday when Middle East tensions ratcheted up.
Three transactions are noted for Friday. One for 50klbs U308 at US$85.75/lb for delivery at ConverDyn.
A third for 50klbs at US$84.50/lb for delivery at Cameco and a further 50klbs also for delivery at Cameco at US$85/lb to close out the week.
TradeTech’s weekly spot price is up 3.7% in 2026 and up 33.9% from a year ago.
The consultants highlight new demand over the week in the long-term U308 market with a Request for Proposal seeking up to 1.5mlbs of U308 for delivery between 2031 and 2036, with offers to the utility due no later than March 16.
Other transactions which are being concluded align with TradeTech’s long-term price indicator of US$90/lb; the mid-term price indicator stands at US$88/lb.
Short interests over the week that was:
Boss Energy has slipped from being the most shorted stock on the ASX to fifth position with short interests declining by -3.57% to 12.76% at at March 3, 2026.
Paladin Energy sits in twelth position with a slight reduction in short positions to 9.57%, down -0.06%, and Silex Systems’ ((SLX)) fell by -0.69% to 2.25%.
For more reading on U308 from FNArena, see
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/03/uranium-week-prices-reset-lower-in-february/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/24/uranium-week-burgeoning-supercycle/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/27/uranium-week-no-shortage-of-bullish-sentiment/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 06/03/2026 | 0.0600 |  – 9.21% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 06/03/2026 | 0.1200 | – 6.90% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 06/03/2026 | 0.0400 |  4.55% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 06/03/2026 | 0.0100 | 20.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 06/03/2026 | 0.0500 | – 8.47% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 06/03/2026 | 0.4600 | – 8.00% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 06/03/2026 | 3.9300 | -14.08% | $5.25 | $1.76 | $5.600 | 42.5% | |
| BOE | 06/03/2026 | 1.5200 | -10.74% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 14.9 | $1.600 | 5.3% |
| BSN | 06/03/2026 | 0.0300 | -18.18% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 06/03/2026 | 0.0300 | – 2.78% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 06/03/2026 | 0.2200 | – 7.27% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 59.1% | |
| CXU | 06/03/2026 | 0.0300 | -12.12% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 06/03/2026 | 0.1900 | -12.00% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 06/03/2026 | 1.9900 | -17.80% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -78.1 | $2.290 | 15.1% |
| EL8 | 06/03/2026 | 0.3000 | -12.00% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| GUE | 06/03/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 06/03/2026 | 0.1400 | 0.00% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 06/03/2026 | 0.1400 | 7.14% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 06/03/2026 | 0.0400 | -13.04% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 06/03/2026 | 0.8400 | – 6.86% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 06/03/2026 | 1.6500 | -15.63% | $3.20 | $1.56 | $3.533 | 114.1% | |
| MEU | 06/03/2026 | 0.1200 | – 7.14% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 06/03/2026 | 16.6900 | – 1.72% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -13859.5 | $20.150 | 20.7% |
| ORP | 06/03/2026 | 0.0600 | 1.59% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 06/03/2026 | 11.3200 | -10.32% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 134.9 | $12.458 | 10.1% |
| PEN | 06/03/2026 | 0.6100 | -14.67% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 06/03/2026 | 5.4100 | -13.60% | $10.85 | $2.28 | |||
| TOE | 06/03/2026 | 0.5100 | – 5.36% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 06/03/2026 | 0.0200 | -11.11% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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