The Monday Report – 11 May 2026

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This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets powered higher on Friday, with both Nasdaq (up 5.5% on the week) and the S&P500 reaching fresh highs. 

The Australian market traded down on Friday but finished slightly higher over the week.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a weak start with President trump rejecting Iran's latest peace offering ahead of the open.

The week opens with a fresh profit downgrade from CSL (where, clearly, the bad news cycle continues).

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished 14 points (0.17%) higher last week at 8744 doing just enough to snap its three-week losing streak.

The tepid performance came after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday — effectively erasing all 75 basis points of cuts delivered in 2025. 

Adding to the subdued mood, an increasing number of companies are highlighting how the energy shock is weighing heavily on the domestic economy and their operations.

At the sector level, Materials (up 3.96%), Industrials (up 1.13%), Financials (up 1.02%), and IT (up 0.61%) were the strongest performers.

In contrast, Energy (down -6.12%), Consumer Staples (off -3.15%), Utilities (down -3.13%), and Consumer Discretionary (-2.97%) all had tough weeks.

Tony Sycamore, IG extract

Monday morning also brings yet another fresh profit downgrade, this time from CSL ((CSL)).

In addition to the profit warning, CSL also expects to book about -$5bn in additional non-cash pre-tax impairments over the current and forthcoming financial periods following a strategic review of the business.

Perennial disappointer Inghams Group ((ING)) has equally added yet another profit warning to its track record this morning.

oOh!media ((OML)) has received an unsolicited, conditional and non-binding takeover proposal from I Squared Capital at $1.45 a share.

https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) has updated on its financial performance:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Today’s Big Picture, J.L.Bernstein 

Labor Market Finds the Sweet Spot

115,000 jobs added in April. Street expected 55,000.

Unemployment held at 4.3 with retail and healthcare leading.

The Fed has no reason to move and this number doesn’t change that.

Hormuz Conflict Heats Up

US jets disabled two Iran-flagged oil tankers trying to break the naval blockade today.

Rubio told reporters the US “should know something today” on Iran’s response to the proposed peace framework.

A senior Iranian official called the plan “unrealistic” and demanded reparations.

Chip Rally Broadens Out

Tech hit fresh records after the WSJ reported Intel $INTC landed a deal to make chips for Apple $AAPL.

Micron $MU crossed US$700 for the first time. AMD $AMD broke through a US$700 billion market cap.

Top chip names added over US$400 billion in value on the day.

NAB Markets Today Research

Geopolitics remain a key driver of investor sentiment. The pick-up in strikes over the past few days has seen the oil price lift higher and it did weigh on European equity markets on Friday.

President Trump has said the ceasefire is still in place and the Wall Street Journal has said the US and Iran are working with mediators to formulate a memorandum of understanding that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the war.

The Wall St Journal notes Iran has offered to transfer some of its stockpile of uranium to a third country, but has rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facility.

For the US, the economic data could not be ignored with headline payrolls surprising to the upside – rising 115k in April (entirely private driven +123k vs government -8k) versus expectations of a 65k rise. Private sector jobs gains were seen in services – healthcare, education, leisure and hospitality.

Over the past year the US unemployment rate has been fairly steady, ranging from 4.1% – 4.5%, and 4.3% to 4.4% in the past four months. The ongoing unknown here is the supply demand dynamic with the former impacted by reduced immigration and an aging population.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment read for May showed a further deterioration in sentiment and current conditions. While the expectations measure picked up slightly it remains at a depressed level (of 48.5). Inflation expectations edged lower but remain above their long-run averages.

For the US bond market, the mix of data supported expectations the Fed will be on hold this year, hence the small rally in yields on the day. The US OIS curve continues to price an unchanged Fed for this year.

Amongst everything else to digest, the tariff issue remains an unknown with the US trade court on Thursday ruling Trump’s latest 10% global tariff as not justified under a 1972 trade law. While tariffs remain, the ruling places further uncertainty around the expected tariff revenue and US budget position in the forward estimates.

As we head into the US mid-terms, the risk of spending increases remain high given Trump’s falling rating approval – the latest FT poll shows more than half of US voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the economy with inflation and the cost of living a key issue for voters.

The expectation is that by June Trumps attention will turn to the mid-terms.

Supporting the US equity market is the resilience in the US economic data (Fridays payrolls report an example) and the strength in US earnings.

Bloomberg estimates around 85% of companies in the S&P 500 have beaten analysts forecasts for Q1 – with earnings in S&P500 companies rising 27% in Q1, which is more than double the 12% analysts had expected.

US stocks closed higher on Friday with the S&P500 recording its sixth consecutive weekly advance. European stocks closed lower, with sentiment weighed down by the conflict in the Middle East.

In line with the price action seen in equities, European credit markets were unchanged to a touch wider while US spreads narrowed. There were no primary market transactions in Europe to end the week.

It was also a quiet end to the week in the US, but with majority of companies having now reported expectations are for a bigger issuance week this coming week.

To end the week energy prices were impacted by the reports of exchanges of fire between the US and Iran. Brent crude rose back above US$100 per barrel.

Yardeni Quick Takes: Market Call, Ed Yardeni extract

We are raising our year-end S&P500 target from 7700 to 8250. We’ve been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. 

We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led melt up in the stock market.

Our 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates have been US$310 and US$350, respectively, since late last year. Those were bullish estimates back then. 

Consensus EPS estimates have rocketed above our targets in recent weeks. They are currently US$336.49 (up 22.0% from last year!) and US$386.70 (up 14.9% from the 2026 consensus estimate). 

We are raising our EPS estimates to US$330 this year and US$375 next year. 

We are sticking with our forward P/E range of 18.0-22.0, resulting in a year-end range for the S&P500 of 6750-8250, assuming (as we do) that forward earnings per share will be US$375 at the end of this year. 

The latter is already at $354.

We are also raising our S&P500 Revenue Per Share (RPS) by US$100 for both 2026 and 2027 to US$2,200 and US$2,300. Those numbers are nearly the same as the current consensus.

Our outlooks for EPS and RPS imply the S&P500 forward profit margin will rise to 15.0% this year and 16.3% next year. These forecasts are a bit higher than the current consensus.

Our key assumption is the economy will remain resilient, and so will earnings. That’s been our mantra since we first started writing about the Roaring 2020s during the summer of 2020. 

We could certainly have another recession scare along the way, as we did in early 2025 and 2026.

We are now also raising our subjective probability of a continuation of the Roaring 2020s to 80% from 60% simply by merging it with our melt up scenario (previously at 20%). 

We are doing so because we believe any meltdown will be a buying opportunity and won’t trigger a recession or bear market similar to the 1999-2000 Tech Bubble and Tech Wreck. We are sticking with 20% odds of a recession that causes a bear market.

We reiterate the upward revisions to consensus 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates have been impressive, as companies have been reporting stronger-than-expected earnings results. 

Consequently, S&P500 forward earnings has been rising at an accelerating pace. 

By definition, it will converge with the consensus 2027 estimate at the end of the year. The latter is already at US$386.70. Our US$375 year-end estimate for forward earnings is conservative, in case the analysts are too exuberant.

The analysts’ exuberance is on full display in their consensus estimates of S&P 500 EPS growth for each of this year’s four quarters. Again, we’ve never seen anything like this.

The percentages of S&P500 companies with positive y/y growth in forward RPS and EPS continue to increase, reaching 89.6% and 84.6%, respectively, during the week of May 7. The recent rapid widening of earnings breadth is bullish.

The widening of earnings breadth is also evident in the record highs in forward EPS for the S&P400 MidCaps and the S&P600 SmallCaps.

At the start of this year, we predicted a stock market pullback partly because the Bull/Bear Ratios (BBR) we monitor showed too many bulls. 

We called the March 30 bottom one day later, partly because there were too many bears. 

Now the BBRs have rebounded, but they remain low enough that we aren’t anticipating another pullback for now.

Then again, some sectors of the S&P500/400/600 do seem overbought when comparing Friday’s prices to their 200-day moving averages. However, it has been an earnings-led melt-up since March 31, driven by Q1’s blockbuster earnings reporting season.

We are sticking with our Go Global recommendation, which has been our advice since December 7, 2025. The war in the Middle East upended the strategy during March. 

However, we think there are relatively cheaper opportunities overseas, particularly in emerging market economies, which have gained market-cap share in the All Country World MSCI index since early 2025. 

On a year-to-date basis and in US dollars, emerging markets have led the global performance derby. We’ve suggested Go Global using EMXC (EM ex-China) rather than EEM (EM Index). So far, so good.

What could possibly go wrong? The war in the Middle East isn’t over, though that hasn’t kept stock markets from soaring around the world in April and so far in May. 

That’s because oil prices have remained around US$100 per barrel. The shock waves from the war could still hit the global economy. 

Another round of fighting could be even more troublesome, as it could result in stagflation. A more persistent inflation problem would force central banks to raise interest rates. 

The Bond Vigilantes would likely push bond yields higher in this scenario.

Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P500 by the end of 2029. It might arrive ahead of schedule.

Corporate news in Australia

On the calendar today:

-CH April CPI, PPI

-US April Existing Home sales

-ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) ex-div 83.00c (75%)

-DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) 1H26 earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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